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Central PA Feb/March 2019 Disco: More Snow In Our Future?


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6 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes indeed!

Friday should be our @bubbler86 storm! 

The 0z Euro put the LSV in the bullseye for Friday morning. 

I agree that the Euro also improved for the Sunday storm as well. It moved closer to putting all of CTP in the bullseye. We just need about a 50 mile shift southeast with the low track to put our far southern tier into the good snowfall on Sunday.  

Here are the Euro maps for Friday & the combined total snow amount for both events through Monday.

3FC7CEDA-B025-4E3B-A994-2CEEF7E716FE.png

50E3A6B6-2F2B-4181-ADEF-E35C9D1645EE.png

C84D37E8-83B5-420A-9A20-723B8DD46624.png

I really hope friday works around here.  Would set the mood right for a fun period coming up.  Nice to see most models coming around to something int he starved LSV

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1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

Things have really come around with regards to tonight into early Fri's event as well as the Sun night/Mon one. For tonight's event I was concerned about sizable corridor of central PA effectively missing out on both yesterdays clipper (too far north) and tonight's (too far south). The NAM was def on the northern end of things and now the rest of the major suite including the GFS is on board with running a snow swath across at least the lower half of PA. Looking like a 2-3" type deal with perhaps some scattered 4-5" amounts (esp Laurel's).

This end of weekend thing after looking rather disorganized the last couple days is now currently looking much more potent with yet another Gulf moisture laden system and the potential for a higher impact winter storm. Missing from this event vs previous couple is presence of high pressure to the north to aid in CAD. Thus, it is important the low tracks south of PA and not through or NW of us. Def looking like more of a gradient type storm with probably not much of a mixing/ice zone.  Getting into March can start presenting cold air availablity issues for storms depending on setup but this pattern going forward into probably at least the first 2 weeks of March is primed with a ton of cold air. That coupled with a slight relaxation of the western trough (still running a -PNA) should help suppress the storm track enough to give us a good shot at this weekend event and perhaps more. Overnight Euro really ripped true central PA with some mixing issues southern tier while GFS is tracking more south and providing PA with generally all snow. Top end potential of this storm is probably going to be tempered some as wave will be progressive and the lack of the high to the north also would play into weaker u wind anomalies (low level easterly flow) with the coastal low as progged. Either way, I think all of us would sign up for 6-8" type event.

Glad you are seeing the potential as well bud.  a few of us have been thinking that things might come together  in this period once the MJO/SOI lags finally worked into the Op's, and they have been spitting out some nice solutions in the last couple days. 

I'll take the taint down here if it means a big storm close (or hopefully just under me) while you guys further W and N crank.  That how it goes down here, so I'm fine w/ it. 

Would be nice to see us get one far enough south for a flush hit though.  Not gonna lie.  Last evenings runs had some pure weather porn w/ the maps.  

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12 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I am coming down to Mount Joy with the wife tomorrow to visit her uncle in Hospice. Will be nice to see Lancaster county covered in snow.

9 inches up here yesterday with over 2 feet on the ground. Good weekend to come up if you are a sledder.

Best wishes to your family. I'm 5 minutes outside of Mount Joy...please bring some of that white gold along with you...

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19 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I am coming down to Mount Joy with the wife tomorrow to visit her uncle in Hospice. Will be nice to see Lancaster county covered in snow.

9 inches up here yesterday with over 2 feet on the ground. Good weekend to come up if you are a sledder.

Sorry to hear about your family member. Have a safe trip. I Made that trip many times from down here to the Tug. That area truly is a special place.

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17 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Best wishes to your family. I'm 5 minutes outside of Mount Joy...please bring some of that white gold along with you...

 

8 minutes ago, daxx said:

Sorry to hear about your family member. Have a safe trip. I Made that trip many times from down here to the Tug. That area truly is a special place.

Thanks, guys. He was diagnosed with throat cancer several months ago and it has advanced very quickly. Tumor burst over the weekend and he is internally bleeding...they tried surgery. Cancer...such an awful thing. They gave him 24 hours, and it is now 5 days later, he is in good spirit and laughing, and the family is having a good opportunity to share memories with him.

 

It hasn't been a very exciting winter on the Tug for lake effect snow. Not one long lasting event, nor any that have brought more than a foot.

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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I was assuming there was the system tonight and the next one later Sunday...is there another wave that might bring snow late tomorrow night as well? That potential wasn't even on my radar...

Yea, it is the coastal I have been talking about with Dax re: what is and is not a Miller B and is the system affecting us tonight transfering much of its ooomph to the costal you are mentioning as late tomorrow night.   That second system is a pontential moderate snow for youe Eastern guys. 

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3 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Yea, it is the coastal I have been talking about with Dax re: what is and is not a Miller B and is the system affecting us tonight transfering much of its ooomph to the costal you are mentioning as late tomorrow night.   That second system is a pontential moderate snow for youe Eastern guys. 

Thanks...I thought you were talking about the Sunday/Monday deal as that to me looks sort of like a Miller B evolution. 

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2 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

NWS disco describes it as a Miller A saying a low from the gulf rides up the coast to the Del Mar Va by Sunday evening.

The Thursday night and Friday night waves were the one I was comparing as to how their impact was sort of Miller B like as the second wave robs the first waves energy a bit.

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Okay...maybe it was just the Euro that was showing it cutting towards WV and then a secondary popping off of Delmarva. 

Lol.  Sorry.  This is what happens when we are tracking multiple storms simultaneously.

The NAM shows it snowing again Friday night with another new 1" of accumulation on top of whatever we get tonight.

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51 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

 

Thanks, guys. He was diagnosed with throat cancer several months ago and it has advanced very quickly. Tumor burst over the weekend and he is internally bleeding...they tried surgery. Cancer...such an awful thing. They gave him 24 hours, and it is now 5 days later, he is in good spirit and laughing, and the family is having a good opportunity to share memories with him.

 

It hasn't been a very exciting winter on the Tug for lake effect snow. Not one long lasting event, nor any that have brought more than a foot.

thinking of you and yours bud.

Enjoy the time with him.

 

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Funny thing is I think all of us actually are pretty much on the same page. :) I might have caused the confusion because i overlooked the potential for Friday night into early Saturday. And then depending on your preferred model, the Sunday/Monday deal may be a Miller A (most models) or a Miller B (Euro somewhat) 

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