pasnownut Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 32 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I agree with everything you said...honestly, if we were looking at 4 possible events i would trade 3 of them for 1 big one if i could. 6z NAM is actually targeting MD/VA for Friday, and NC/VA/MD for Sunday into Monday. In March, I'd much rather have a single 10"+ storm rather than a 2", 4", and 4" or something like that. I love all snow but a couple of inches in March is kind of like a tease...now you see it, and very quickly thereafter you don't. I want something that will survive one full day of March sun, and therefore it needs to be significant. I NEVER want to trade any snow chances away, but have to agree that once into second week of march, the cold needs staying power to keep it around for more than a day. The biggies are the easy way to that. We've had some decent march events around here so at least we have a pattern that supports more than just digital snow. North of 80 looks decent for a few inches tomorrow. Sure hope so, headed up with the sleds on Thursday and I really need that storm to deliver a few inches so I can get around with ease. Lets have some fun in the next couple weeks, before I head to the cave. :(. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 26, 2019 Author Share Posted February 26, 2019 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: I NEVER want to trade any snow chances away, but have to agree that once into second week of march, the cold needs staying power to keep it around for more than a day. The biggies are the easy way to that. We've had some decent marches around here so at least we have a pattern that supports more than just digital snow. Yep, and just to clarify...the ONLY way I trade snow is a 100% guarantee I'm getting a biggie in return... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Yep, and just to clarify...the ONLY way I trade snow is a 100% guarantee I'm getting a biggie in return... We've been snowmobiling into the end of march in northern pa as well as Tug hill, so its not out of reach. It usually is a biggie that makes that happen, or an anomalous cold shot w/ lake effect for Tug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 I travel a lot from work and get to experience lake effect and synoptic snows all over the northeast.It’s always best at home.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 4 hours ago, bubbler86 said: Lol, I'm shocked. Last week it had that run with 2-4 feet of snow that basically told the Jan 2016 NAM to hold my beer, but then it was all talk and no action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 At this moment Friday looks like if anything less than 1” and the early week dorm looks like it stays way south - like Virginia south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 12 minutes ago, canderson said: At this moment Friday looks like if anything less than 1” and the early week dorm looks like it stays way south - like Virginia south. With this week decidedly a more northern branch dominated pattern, it appears the better of the two events is going to be the clipper system tomorrow. Unfortunately the low is going to track too far to the north (through PA) so the best snow swath runs NY state/PA northern tier into New England. The system near the weekend (Fri) hasn't been nearly as impressive for the most part the last several runs, although the 18z NAM ran a swath of snow across most of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 1 hour ago, canderson said: At this moment Friday looks like if anything less than 1” and the early week dorm looks like it stays way south - like Virginia south. You must be only looking at the GFS ? ... The 18z NAM & 12z Canadian still show snow for us for Friday morning. The 12z Euro & 12z Canadian have a good snowfall for us on Sunday night into early Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Here are the 12z Euro & 12z Canadian for the potential snow event from Sunday pm into Monday am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 1 hour ago, MAG5035 said: With this week decidedly a more northern branch dominated pattern, it appears the better of the two events is going to be the clipper system tomorrow. Unfortunately the low is going to track too far to the north (through PA) so the best snow swath runs NY state/PA northern tier into New England. The system near the weekend (Fri) hasn't been nearly as impressive for the most part the last several runs, although the 18z NAM ran a swath of snow across most of PA. Yes, the 18z is still showing Friday am snow for the southern part of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Yes, the 18z is still showing Friday am snow for the southern part of PA. The thing that is so much fun about the 18Z Nam, on an island with this, is that it shows it snowing over Central PA for most of a 24 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 This pattern is loaded with potential for the next 2 weeks. I think we have a chance at a few snow events before this pattern breaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 29 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: You must be only looking at the GFS ? ... The 18z NAM & 12z Canadian still show snow for us for Friday morning. The 12z Euro & 12z Canadian have a good snowfall for us on Sunday night into early Monday. 12z prior to the Euro when I posted yea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 4 hours ago, canderson said: At this moment Friday looks like if anything less than 1” and the early week dorm looks like it stays way south - like Virginia south. You may want to look at the 0z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Yes, the 18z is still showing Friday am snow for the southern part of PA. Oz throws a bone to us less fortunate. I'm down with this, even if I'll be up in the mountains. Enjoy my southern brethren. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 27, 2019 Author Share Posted February 27, 2019 @psuhoffman said something this evening that I agree with 100% - I think the chances of snow the next 10-14 days is quite high, but the chance of a big dog snowstorm has dropped. Once again it seems that progressive flow will dampen things out enough that we just don't get the amplification we need. So if that does become a reality, and I'm not giving up by any means...I hope the 12z Euro depiction for Monday works out for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 11 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Oz throws a bone to us less fortunate. I'm down with this, even if I'll be up in the mountains. Enjoy my southern brethren. Yes, the 0z NAM has not backed down for Friday am snow for southern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: @psuhoffman said something this evening that I agree with 100% - I think the chances of snow the next 10-14 days is quite high, but the chance of a big dog snowstorm has dropped. Once again it seems that progressive flow will dampen things out enough that we just don't get the amplification we need. So if that does become a reality, and I'm not giving up by any means...I hope the 12z Euro depiction for Monday works out for us. I would love to end this year with a big snowstorm, just like we did the last 2 years. However, I will take what we can get, even if that means we only get a couple of 3-5 inch storms. MDT is sitting at 28.7 inches of snow through today. They are less than 3 inches away from reaching climo average snow for the season. I think that there is s good chance of going above average snow here by next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 6 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: @psuhoffman said something this evening that I agree with 100% - I think the chances of snow the next 10-14 days is quite high, but the chance of a big dog snowstorm has dropped. Once again it seems that progressive flow will dampen things out enough that we just don't get the amplification we need. So if that does become a reality, and I'm not giving up by any means...I hope the 12z Euro depiction for Monday works out for us. models are showing plenty of opps and yeah, tight spacing does not help big storm development, but verbatim, i'll take frequent chances to score moderate or better events (ala Oz GFS suite). 3-6" events still get it done in my book. I'll never turn one down.....ever. edit....lols, i didnt even read Blizz's post above before typing my response to you..... Shows how us snow weenies think alike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 you can also add the CMC/ICON combo to the "it wants to snow next week" train. Verbatim, 2 nice events for early and mid next week. Lock them up and I'd come outta winter with instead of look on my face to what has been a challenging winter for tracking enthusiasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Im right on the edge of no snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 The models are all over the place with the Sunday into Monday storm. The 0z Euro & Canadian shifted the best snow to the north after many models yesterday had CTP or further south in the bullseye. Lots of time to go, but I like where we sit now. I would rather have the good precip & then sweat out the rain/snow line instead of being on the northern or southern fringe of just light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 I just hope it's enough to cancel my trip to the Philly Flower Show on Monday. The last thing I want to do is drive a 45 ft bus in a wintry mess immediately after arriving home from warm and sunny Phoenix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 27, 2019 Author Share Posted February 27, 2019 One thing is for certain...no one can say with any certainty what's going to happen. So many moving pieces and what each piece of energy ultimately does will sorta dictate how the trailing piece does. We have an active period coming up with chances and that's plenty good enough. For now. :) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: One thing is for certain...no one can say with any certainty what's going to happen. So many moving pieces and what each piece of energy ultimately does will sorta dictate how the trailing piece does. We have an active period coming up with chances and that's plenty good enough. For now. agreed. I'm liking the potential for at least 1 or 2 decent chances before we close the shades. Would be great to see a double digit deal around here,but you know what they say about beggars.... If one looks at the 6z's for Monday, I dare sat that's the strongest consensus for a flush hit here in CTP/LSV that I've seen in a while. Great continuity.....for the next few hours anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Light snow here this morning...fine flakes. Laying on the roadway. We might get 1-2", this is more a northern tier storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 27, 2019 Author Share Posted February 27, 2019 Man...MU's 7 day forecast is uninspiring to say the least. A possible "brush" with light snow or flurries tomorrow night, followed by rain, cold, rain, cold...and dry. The ONLY snow in the 7 day is tomorrow night's flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gosnow Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 12z gfs looking mighty interesting for sunday Monday now. What a difference a day makes. Of course until the next model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 6 minutes ago, Gosnow said: 12z gfs looking mighty interesting for sunday Monday now. What a difference a day makes. Of course until the next model run. That one has been if interest for a while and 6z’s were impressive in their consistent look. Hope the 12zs continue the trend. Haven’t had time to look in depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now