Spanks45 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 43 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Sleet is cool with me. My sleet from 2 storms ago is still around, even on parts of my neighbors driveway, if it was snow it would have been gone a while ago. I will take sleet over rain anyday... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Would imagine, get on the snow early before the crowds, groomed stuff will be sweet. I usually bang out early runs and quit when the mash potatoes start That's the plan from 3/15 - 4-15 once Spring conditions take hold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: That's a lot of sleet!! Not speaking for everywhere (deterministically) but... radar is presently snow-bombing that same region of southern PA so... there's some semblance of verification to that regardless of ending total exactness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 SPC HREF is interesting. It really lights up after 4z from WNW-ESE as it pushes to the ENE. Can see it in the 1-hr snowfall mean. Basically a race with the mix line moving in vs dynamics for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 45 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: My sleet from 2 storms ago is still around, even on parts of my neighbors driveway, if it was snow it would have been gone a while ago. I will take sleet over rain anyday... If it was snow it would’ve been 3x as much. I think snow water equiv is the biggest factor for staying power. 1” sleet or 3” of snow...same thing. Although maybe the snow can sublimate a bit faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 NWS has 1.5" of snow and sleet here in Enfield and WU has 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 H700 to H500 dynamics are weak with this. The warmth looks like it comes in first at 850, not above or below... Appears to me that risk is high that this remains all snow from MA border on north (away from the immediate coast). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 23 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: NWS has 1.5" of snow and sleet here in Enfield and WU has 3". WU has my backyard getting 3-5”...I’m tossing that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 7 minutes ago, jbenedet said: H700 to H500 dynamics are weak with this. The warmth looks like it comes in first at 850, not above or below... Appears to me that risk is high that this remains all snow from MA border on north (away from the immediate coast). We take 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 One thing to watch (at least on HRRR) is that the big burst before flip has good lift in the DGZ. That is something missing in the last events. If that occurs, than it would lead to the higher amounts. That's a big IF obviously. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 30 minutes ago, dendrite said: If it was snow it would’ve been 3x as much. I think snow water equiv is the biggest factor for staying power. 1” sleet or 3” of snow...same thing. Although maybe the snow can sublimate a bit faster. Snow definitely sublimates quicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Snow definitely sublimates quicker Sure...but 10:1 snow won't sublimate like a 25:1 and you have to factor in the amount of wind and RH before the next system arrives. A few days of 30% RH arctic cold after the fluff we just has up here sublimates it relatively quickly. Cloudy, calm, raw days naso much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Sure...but 10:1 snow won't sublimate like a 25:1 and you have to factor in the amount of wind and RH before the next system arrives. A few days of 30% RH arctic cold after the fluff we just has up here sublimates it relatively quickly. Cloudy, calm, raw days naso much. Sure, all of that is basic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Sure, all of that is basic 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 20 minutes ago, dendrite said: Sure...but 10:1 snow won't sublimate like a 25:1 and you have to factor in the amount of wind and RH before the next system arrives. A few days of 30% RH arctic cold after the fluff we just has up here sublimates it relatively quickly. Cloudy, calm, raw days naso much. How much of it you think is sublimation or is it just compaction that's acting on it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: 2003 emoji? step it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 No wonder the GFS always has a precip hole over CON. WTF is this? GFS versus 3k NAM. This model needs a fixin'. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: How much of it you think is sublimation or is it just compaction that's acting on it? With the wind and low RH we had? probably 50/50. This fluff has a lot of trapped air and the wind continually feeding low RH through it speeds up the sublimation process. I should take a core of the fluff on top of the pack to see how much of the 0.13" remains from Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 2003 emoji? step it up They're all 2003. I've been trying to get John to do an update to allow your phone emojis but no luck yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: With the wind and low RH we had? probably 50/50. This fluff has a lot of trapped air and the wind continually feeding low RH through it speeds up the sublimation process. I should take a core of the fluff on top of the pack to see how much of the 0.13" remains from Monday. Ha I was just thinking that. Be curious to see what the water loss is from sublimation. I think I've got about an inch left of what was 3" of pure fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Ha I was just thinking that. Be curious to see what the water loss is from sublimation. I think I've got about an inch left of what was 3" of pure fluff. If no melting 1/3 rd would be my guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not speaking for everywhere (deterministically) but... radar is presently snow-bombing that same region of southern PA so... there's some semblance of verification to that regardless of ending total exactness That part of SW PA has a lot of country above 2000' - some spots on the PA Pike go over 2500. I've never checked out climo for the Laurel Highlands, but would guess it catches considerable snow. GFS op removing qpf, as usual for the 24 hours leading up to the event. Had close to 0.6" yesterday for our general area, now .3-.4. Still thinking 4-6 for the foothills. Overperformer might get the pack to 40", but that's a longshot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Just now, tamarack said: That part of SW PA has a lot of country above 2000' - some spots on the PA Pike go over 2500. I've never checked out climo for the Laurel Highlands, but would guess it catches considerable snow. GFS op removing qpf, as usual for the 24 hours leading up to the event. Had close to 0.6" yesterday for our general area, now .3-.4. Still thinking 4-6 for the foothills. Overperformer might get the pack to 40", but that's a longshot. What is your pack at now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Snowing from DC to NYC per webcams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Gonna enjoy tonights mood snow and take it day by day. Its OK to live in the moment Now you’re realizing how to live! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 First flakes here in Greenwich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What is your pack at now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 20, 2019 Author Share Posted February 20, 2019 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What is your pack at now? Must be close to 34"+ if 6 gets him to 40" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What is your pack at now? 35" this morning. Monday's 1.9" had only 0.04" LE, so depth is back to Sunday's mark. It's solid, too. The 11" carried over from December probably held 3" water, and we've had 7.5" LE since then, with at least 80% (and probably closer to 90) still there - likely approaching 9" water in total. Getting to be time to take a sample, and with all the layers and crusts, that will be a challenge to measure accurately and not wreck the outer tube of my Stratus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 20, 2019 Author Share Posted February 20, 2019 22 minutes ago, dryslot said: Must be close to 34"+ if 6 gets him to 40" 12 minutes ago, tamarack said: 35" this morning. Monday's 1.9" had only 0.04" LE, so depth is back to Sunday's mark. It's solid, too. The 11" carried over from December probably held 3" water, and we've had 7.5" LE since then, with at least 80% (and probably closer to 90) still there - likely approaching 9" water in total. Getting to be time to take a sample, and with all the layers and crusts, that will be a challenge to measure accurately and not wreck the outer tube of my Stratus. I figured you were close, After this one i'm only 20" behind................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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