BristowWx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: OPM has a new policy. Federal employees no longer get snow days or weather and safety leave as it is now called. We must either take personal leave or telework. Not true for everyone. I know this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Just now, Jandurin said: Yeah but my work goes by opm which really makes opms new policy great Same for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 OPM has become more of a topic than school closings. LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Enough OPM talk..... 1) Current radar representation is kinda irrelevant for us. 2) Per the 0Z NAM, DC goes to sleet by 15Z, BWI by 16-17Z. 3) 0Z NAM is light on snow....less than .2" QPF at DCA by 15Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Updated AFD from LWX as of 8:57pm: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Leading edge of precipitation is moving northward into southern Virginia as of mid-evening, and should arrive just prior to midnight across central Virginia. Precipitation will then move towards the remainder of the area from southwest to northeast overnight. A strong area of frontogenetical forcing will move across the area, and a band of moderate to heavy snow is expected across the area Wednesday morning. Localized rates of 1"+ per hour are possible in this band. Latest guidance and trends suggest the strongest lift in the dendritic snow growth zone will setup over eastern West Virginia, the northern Shenandoah Valley into west-central Maryland Wednesday morning, where 2" per hour snowfall rates are possible. At any given location, a 4-6 hour period of snow is expected before the strong warm air advection pulls in a warm nose aloft causing snow to mix with and change over to sleet during the mid to late morning hours Wednesday for most locations, and early afternoon across northeastern Maryland. An extended period of sleet then appears likely for a good portfrontogenetical forcing will move across the area, and a band of moderate to heavy snow is expected across the area Wednesday morning. Localized rates of 1"+ per hour are possible in this band. Latest guidance and trends suggest the strongest lift in the dendritic snow growth zone will setup over eastern West Virginia, the northern Shenandoah Valley into west-central Maryland Wednesday morning, where 2" per hour snowfall rates are possibleion of the area before warming continues, changing precipitation to freezing rain and then rain. Freezing rain will persist the longest for portions of eastern WV, western MD, and northwestern VA near/west of the Blue Ridge. Of note, even an hour sooner (or later) in changeover from snow to ice could result in notably lower (or higher) snowfall amounts, given the moderately heavy rates expected. Snow and sleet totals from 3-6" appear most probable for locations along/west of I-95, with some areas in excess of 6" near/west of the Blue Ridge and northern MD. 2-4" of snow/sleet likely for areas south/east of I-95. This will then be followed by a light glaze of ice accrual along/east of I-95 with a tenth to two-tenths west of the I-95 corridor. Some locations may see up to three-tenths in the favored locations west of the Blue Ridge. The combined impact of the snow, sleet and freezing rain will create very hazardous travel conditions, and could result in downed trees and isolated power outages even in the absence of strong winds (northeast 10-15 mph, with a few gusts to around 20 mph). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 3K NAM is a bit better on the QPF front.....by 15Z, DCA is at .27". By 18Z, DCA is up to .5" and still holding the surface and 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Updated AFD from LWX as of 8:57pm: I like that they are rather confident in the 3-6 95 westward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherLovingDoc Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 38 minutes ago, H2O said: 35.9/14 DP keeps fluctuating between 13-14 baro 30.61 and steady You are in my area. However I have no current thermometer or Dew Point reader! Hahal You'd think I would. Therefore I've always appreciated your current input! So thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 9 minutes ago, jaydreb said: No one likes to see bad runs but we should be using the Euro 1000 times more than the HRRR. I know you all know this. This. Euro/Ukie/NAMs/GFS twins/CMC/RGEM/ Herpderps/Icon vs the HRRR. Who are you picking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 13 minutes ago, Weather Will said: OPM has a new policy. Federal employees no longer get snow days or weather and safety leave as it is now called. We must either take personal leave or telework. It is 2019 telework should be available to the majority of the workforce. My office follows OPM, but we have been telework enabled since 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 1 minute ago, WesternFringe said: This. Euro/Ukie/NAMs/GFS twins/CMC/RGEM/ Herpderps/Icon vs the HRRR. Who are you picking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Almost made me spit out a fine bourbon 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 7 minutes ago, yoda said: Updated AFD from LWX as of 8:57pm: You copied it twice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Wife and kid are off school/work tomorrow. I'm tempted to go to the office just to be able to get work done. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lake Frederick Mike Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 30/18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 20, 2019 Author Share Posted February 20, 2019 00z 3k NAM is about an hour slower on the changeover to sleet in DC from 18z. Extrapolating about 0.35" would fall as snow through 16z which is when we'd flip (0.27" through 15z and 0.53" through 18z) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 4 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: This. Euro/Ukie/NAMs/GFS twins/CMC/RGEM/ Herpderps/Icon vs the HRRR. Who are you picking? HRRR. I learned from the Ji school of snow events in the MA. Pick the worst model divide by 2. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 I am observing a lot of happiness that you all are getting snow tonight! THAT, makes everything right in the world for me! Enjoy! Damn I might have to stay up all night long for this! 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJField Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, Grothar of Herndon said: It is 2019 telework should be available to the major of the workforce. My office follows OPM, but we have been telework enabled since 2012. Policy where are I is that if you have a TW agreement you are expected to make yourself "Telework Ready" and do so during a weather day. Or take leave. Makes good sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 I can’t remember discussions be so far all over the map. 2-7 inches just west of the City? far west of the city? 2-3 change to rain by 4:00 pm? Looks like just a mix of slushy 2 inches and then fr rain and rain. Not to be Deb but a whole lot of hoopla for what appears to be an an 11:00 am changeover to sleet and then rain 2 hours later. Hope the CAD just sits and cold air wins out overperforning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Just now, nj2va said: 00z 3k NAM is about an hour slower on the changeover to sleet in DC from 18z. Extrapolating about 0.35" would fall as snow through 16z which is when we'd flip (0.27" through 15z and 0.53" through 18z) If we can keep the heavy rates, I think we can hold off the flip until 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 11 minutes ago, snowfan said: 3K NAM is a bit better on the QPF front.....by 15Z, DCA is at .27". By 18Z, DCA is up to .5" and still holding the surface and 850s. Yes, but not very good dendrites before the flip to sleet according to the Ferrier or rime corrected SLR per the NAM3. I'm hoping we're closer to the 2-3" bar I've set for our BY, which is on the 10-1 NAM3 map, vs. the 1-ish inch per the NAM3 Ferrier. The Ferrier has consistently been 1 maybe 2 inches for the I-95 corridor. Now it's barely 1" (2nd and 3rd from the bottom blue colors). Hoping it's more of a QPF issue, but as you said, with 0.27" by 15Z, that tells me we've got a) riming problems (less than a 10-1 ratio) and/or b) a quicker transition to a snow-sleet mix (way less than 10-1). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 18 minutes ago, Weather Will said: OPM has a new policy. Federal employees no longer get snow days or weather and safety leave as it is now called. We must either take personal leave or telework. Good news, though: Mexico is going to pay for your leave. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 20, 2019 Author Share Posted February 20, 2019 Just now, yoda said: If we can keep the heavy rates, I think we can hold off the flip until 18z I think that's a tall order. That WAA push at 700 will be strong...I'd be happy if we can hold the snow until 11a. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Down in Seaford DE doing my emergency medicine thing till 2400 hrs then drive back home to Hockessin, DE. Paying attention to the PBP in the Mid Atlantic forum on AmerWx. In the 19707 ... 30F. 47% RH. Winds Calm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 29/9 with high clouds covering the full moon. LWX mentioning 2" per hour rates here tomorrow morning. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, WxMan1 said: Yes, but not very good dendrites before the flip to sleet according to the Ferrier or rime corrected SLR per the NAM3. I'm hoping we're closer to the 2-3" bar I've set for our BY, which is on the 10-1 NAM3 map, vs. the 1-ish inch per the NAM3 Ferrier. The Ferrier has consistently been 1 maybe 2 inches for the I-95 corridor. Now it's barely 1" (2nd and 3rd from the bottom blue colors). Hoping it's more of a QPF issue, but as you said, with 0.27" by 15Z, that tells me we've got a) riming problems (less than a 10-1 ratio) and/or b) a quicker transition to a snow-sleet mix (way less than 10-1). Yeah, by 15Z, DCA is at -1C at 700, which is less than ideal for snow. Should want something around -2/-3C or we're already mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, WxMan1 said: Yes, but not very good dendrites before the flip to sleet according to the Ferrier or rime corrected SLR per the NAM3. I'm hoping we're closer to the 2-3" bar I've set for our BY, which is on the 10-1 NAM3 map, vs. the 1-ish inch per the NAM3 Ferrier. The Ferrier has consistently been 1 maybe 2 inches for the I-95 corridor. Now it's barely 1" (2nd and 3rd from the bottom blue colors). Hoping it's more of a QPF issue, but as you said, with 0.27" by 15Z, that tells me we've got a) riming problems (less than a 10-1 ratio) and/or b) a quicker transition to a snow-sleet mix (way less than 10-1). I’d have to think that there is something amiss with the Ferrier scheme in this scenario. That is implying a sub 5:1 ratio which is really hard to come by. That said, if you thought the 00z HRRR was bad, 01z upped the bar there. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 I can't be the only one who has consistently seen Ferrier come in way too low for ground truth in my backyard. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digital snow Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 I'm psyched too. the deb'n over the hrrr is killing me. Do y'all read your wives emotional cues like you do model runs? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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