Lucketts Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 35/12 in Lucketts. North of Leesburg and just south of the Potomac. Isn't the super moon tonight? It's visible but blurred. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I'm sure it'll bounce around, but latest HRRR is ugly unless you live north of Hagerstown. North of HGR is out of our forum. That sounds less than perfect. 34/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Opm closed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Just now, Jandurin said: Opm closed Nice they didn’t look at the HRRR. Thank God. I’m off tomorrow. It’s on! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Just now, Jandurin said: Opm closed If the HRRR is right (I don't think it will be) and DC gets 1" of snow... Closing the night before would be embarrassing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Im just confused why they closed now rather than 5pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Just now, snjókoma said: If the HRRR is right (I don't think it will be) and DC gets 1" of snow... Closing the night before would be embarrassing. There will be icing concerns as well. Not sure why there are folks out there that are just monitoring the snow aspect. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 1 minute ago, snjókoma said: If the HRRR is right (I don't think it will be) and DC gets 1" of snow... Closing the night before would be embarrassing. There is too much moisture.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, snjókoma said: The HRRR was horrific on 1/12-13. Literally never right. I don't really care what it says for this one. Yeah it was also terrible during our light snow event that overpefmormed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 32.3/18 on the water. Pumped for some reason lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 14 minutes ago, poolz1 said: What site was that radar from? Looks like CMISS but I cant find it....COD loops are stuck at 5pm.... I pull a lot of stuff out of a storm tracking thread in the NY subforum. It used to have a bunch more stuff in it. Has been my goto for the past 5 years https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/42006-storm-tracking-images/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 If the HRRR is right (I don't think it will be) and DC gets 1" of snow... Closing the night before would be embarrassing. What...it looked great an hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, snjókoma said: If the HRRR is right (I don't think it will be) and DC gets 1" of snow... Closing the night before would be embarrassing. They look at more after snowmaggedon. Departure times and more than DC proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 26 minutes ago, Fozz said: Where are you at? Midland, Texas lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 32/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somecallmetim Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 7 minutes ago, snjókoma said: If the HRRR is right (I don't think it will be) and DC gets 1" of snow... Closing the night before would be embarrassing. What...it looked great an hour ago It feels like the HRRR provides all the NAM’s consecutive thrills of victory and agonies of defeat, just on an hourly basis. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I pull a lot of stuff out of a storm tracking thread in the NY subforum. It used to have a bunch more stuff in it. Has been my goto for the past 5 years https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/42006-storm-tracking-images/ Found it...thanks. Actually, a pretty good resource.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 0Z hrrr is wacky, much drier early and late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowCane Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 The latest HRRR really wasn't terrible considering it's literally one run, of course there will be variation so this one 0z run will likely not be close to what actually happens. Even this bad run gave DC 2" of snow and plenty of sleet after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, snjókoma said: If the HRRR is right (I don't think it will be) and DC gets 1" of snow... Closing the night before would be embarrassing. They look at more after snowmaggedon. Departure times and more than DC proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 No one likes to see bad runs but we should be using the Euro 1000 times more than the HRRR. I know you all know this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 OPM has a new policy. Federal employees no longer get snow days or weather and safety leave as it is now called. We must either take personal leave or telework. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Just now, jaydreb said: No one likes to see bad runs but we should be using the Euro 1000 times more than the HRRR. I know you all know this. Pretty sure the nams would be more useful at this range versus euro or gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Just now, Weather Will said: OPM has a new policy. Federal employees no longer get snow days or weather and safety leave as it is now called. We must either take personal leave or telework. Yeah but my work goes by opm which really makes opms new policy great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Just now, Weather Will said: OPM has a new policy. Federal employees no longer get snow days or weather and safety leave as it is now called. We must either take personal leave or telework. Makes complete sense since the Fed has made considerable investment in a mobile-enabled workforce. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: OPM has a new policy. Federal employees no longer get snow days or weather and safety leave as it is now called. We must either take personal leave or telework. Not true for everyone. I know this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Just now, Jandurin said: Yeah but my work goes by opm which really makes opms new policy great Same for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 OPM has become more of a topic than school closings. LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Enough OPM talk..... 1) Current radar representation is kinda irrelevant for us. 2) Per the 0Z NAM, DC goes to sleet by 15Z, BWI by 16-17Z. 3) 0Z NAM is light on snow....less than .2" QPF at DCA by 15Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Updated AFD from LWX as of 8:57pm: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Leading edge of precipitation is moving northward into southern Virginia as of mid-evening, and should arrive just prior to midnight across central Virginia. Precipitation will then move towards the remainder of the area from southwest to northeast overnight. A strong area of frontogenetical forcing will move across the area, and a band of moderate to heavy snow is expected across the area Wednesday morning. Localized rates of 1"+ per hour are possible in this band. Latest guidance and trends suggest the strongest lift in the dendritic snow growth zone will setup over eastern West Virginia, the northern Shenandoah Valley into west-central Maryland Wednesday morning, where 2" per hour snowfall rates are possible. At any given location, a 4-6 hour period of snow is expected before the strong warm air advection pulls in a warm nose aloft causing snow to mix with and change over to sleet during the mid to late morning hours Wednesday for most locations, and early afternoon across northeastern Maryland. An extended period of sleet then appears likely for a good portfrontogenetical forcing will move across the area, and a band of moderate to heavy snow is expected across the area Wednesday morning. Localized rates of 1"+ per hour are possible in this band. Latest guidance and trends suggest the strongest lift in the dendritic snow growth zone will setup over eastern West Virginia, the northern Shenandoah Valley into west-central Maryland Wednesday morning, where 2" per hour snowfall rates are possibleion of the area before warming continues, changing precipitation to freezing rain and then rain. Freezing rain will persist the longest for portions of eastern WV, western MD, and northwestern VA near/west of the Blue Ridge. Of note, even an hour sooner (or later) in changeover from snow to ice could result in notably lower (or higher) snowfall amounts, given the moderately heavy rates expected. Snow and sleet totals from 3-6" appear most probable for locations along/west of I-95, with some areas in excess of 6" near/west of the Blue Ridge and northern MD. 2-4" of snow/sleet likely for areas south/east of I-95. This will then be followed by a light glaze of ice accrual along/east of I-95 with a tenth to two-tenths west of the I-95 corridor. Some locations may see up to three-tenths in the favored locations west of the Blue Ridge. The combined impact of the snow, sleet and freezing rain will create very hazardous travel conditions, and could result in downed trees and isolated power outages even in the absence of strong winds (northeast 10-15 mph, with a few gusts to around 20 mph). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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