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2/19-20 Winter Storm Observations


nj2va
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3 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

I know they mean well but seriously 1-8 is not a forecast.  It’s just telling you that anything can happen.  A true forecast is a range of acouple inches like 2-4.  I’m fine with the zones but they need to stick their necks out a little more make a real prediction.

They didn't explicitly have an 8 inch range. They use the probability system. This might be an unpopular opinion - but I think a forecaster is good if they communicate to the public well. I don't think a good forecaster necessarily is the one that nails a forecast to a 2 inch range. 

The best forecasters these days are the ones that do not hype - and show the range of possibilities. Yeah - a nailed 2 inch forecast range is great - but some of that is also luck. Banding in this area generally precludes any sort of broad brushed uniform amounts anyway. 

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28 minutes ago, Kingstonian said:

Measured 2.5" at 11:00 in SSW Franconia/Kingstowne, FFX County.  It's a snow/sleet mix right now here.  

I had 2" that i reported at 9:30.  Haven't measured since and cleared my snow measuring area at 11 once it switched to mostly sleet.  2.5" sounds about right tho.

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4 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

If they just got rid of the boom/bust stuff that’s a good map.  

The boom and bust stuff is only there to show how it could turn out if something goes wrong. It's not there to say "haha we were still right!". I think it's good to convey other possibilities especially since forecasting winter weather is often full of uncertainty.

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3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

If they just got rid of the boom/bust stuff that’s a good map.  

       Disagree with all the people complaining about 1-8" ranges and boom/bust ideas needing to be tossed.     Forecasting snow amounts isn't a contest.    It's communicating the most likely outcomes along with the range of possibilities to account for model errors, localized bands, and such   so that people who may need to travel or decide whether to close a business or school can assess the level of risk and their tolerance of it and make informed choices.

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