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2/19-20 Winter Storm Observations


nj2va
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Just now, poolz1 said:

Precip aloft is closing in on the radar site.  It's a weenie radar but the atmosphere is moistening up to our SW.  A little early imo.... 

Radar indicated that a lot is happening early and not "forecasted". 12z runs will be interesting

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

34 and ready for my fully stocked winter wx buffet

Just to clear the air and not derail this thread... I took a break for 2 reasons. 1) was burned out and not enjoying myself at all around here and 2) have some important stuff (all good) going on in my personal life. I said I'd be back for obs and here I am. Let's do this man. 

I missed you. See the radar?

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

34 and ready for my fully stocked winter wx buffet

Just to clear the air and not derail this thread... I took a break for 2 reasons. 1) was burned out and not enjoying myself at all around here and 2) have some important stuff (all good) going on in my personal life. I said I'd be back for obs and here I am. Let's do this man. 

giphy.gif

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

34 and ready for my fully stocked winter wx buffet

Just to clear the air and not derail this thread... I took a break for 2 reasons. 1) was burned out and not enjoying myself at all around here and 2) have some important stuff (all good) going on in my personal life. I said I'd be back for obs and here I am. Let's do this man. 

Glad your here for obs! Let’s hope MoCo gets what we deserve! Lol you get to spend some quality time with your kids tomorrow.

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12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

34 and ready for my fully stocked winter wx buffet

Just to clear the air and not derail this thread... I took a break for 2 reasons. 1) was burned out and not enjoying myself at all around here and 2) have some important stuff (all good) going on in my personal life. I said I'd be back for obs and here I am. Let's do this man. 

Uh oh, it's on now!!!

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5 minutes ago, jnis said:

Glad your here for obs! Let’s hope MoCo gets what we deserve! Lol you get to spend some quality time with your kids tomorrow.

Storm thread was excellent. I was always catching up and wasn't watching daytime model runs until well after they ran. Enjoyed the clean/concise rundown. I applaud the sub posters and mods keeping things clean, concise, and very readable. 

The one thing I want to add that I don't think was discussed much last few days are ratios. Yes, we have a really nice column at onset but it changes very quickly in regards to DSG and what type of snow will be falling. This won't be pretty fluffy dendrites and even with all snow falling (prob heavy at times) it will resemble sand and oatmeal falling at times. There is a sig WAA pump going on up above 850mb. Losing 800-700mb levels while everything below is important to understand. Could be all snow but still only 8:1 (or lower) ratios. 

If anyone remembers Feb 2014 or March 2013 onset it will likely resemble that type of snowfall. Not pretty 10 or 12:1 stuff. More of a pounding white meteor or sand or oatmeal or whatever you want to call it. Snow will be dense and will go through a progression of worsening ratios until sleet takes over.

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24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

34 and ready for my fully stocked winter wx buffet

Just to clear the air and not derail this thread... I took a break for 2 reasons. 1) was burned out and not enjoying myself at all around here and 2) have some important stuff (all good) going on in my personal life. I said I'd be back for obs and here I am. Let's do this man. 

Welcome back Mr. Chill

 

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24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

34 and ready for my fully stocked winter wx buffet

Just to clear the air and not derail this thread... I took a break for 2 reasons. 1) was burned out and not enjoying myself at all around here and 2) have some important stuff (all good) going on in my personal life. I said I'd be back for obs and here I am. Let's do this man. 

I have been waiting for this more than my wedding night. Welcome back. I hope you get slammed. 

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AA hoCo moCo schools are closed for all of my fellow parents and teachers etc. 

18z looks juiced. All I cared to look for at this point. Dynamics (placement of bands highest qpf totals and changeover times) are all subject to tiny changes in each model. Not smart to put stock into any one model for this reason. Looking good for an area wide 3-6” dump before we slopfest and then hopefully we dry slot before much rain can fall with a track to our NW. 8” definitely attainable in Climo favored areas (congrats Westminster)

 

Currently at 32 degrees with a dew point of 8

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