Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Sub freezing at 31 now. Nice to have a multi hour stretch sub freezing before onset. Can make a big difference if rates are light at the beginning. Also, stop looking at the hrrr until precip is overhead or at least close. It uses radar data at initialization and generally does really bad or is very inconsistent when onset is still a number of hours away. Honestly, I've never found the hrrr that useful with winter storms. Globals do far better in general. 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 33/19 is South West Stafford Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Just now, Solution Man said: Waiting patiently *nervously in all seriousness, we're in a tricky spot where we could see a variety of totals based on whether or not we get a good band or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 20, 2019 Author Share Posted February 20, 2019 35/12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digital snow Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 IR temp gun... holy Sh. I need to up my game 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Appears my call for my area is looking solid for this morning...I'm ok with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Just now, Deer Whisperer said: *nervously in all seriousness, we're in a tricky spot where we could see a variety of totals based on whether or not we get a good band or I'm thinking we do OK this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 23 minutes ago, digital snow said: I'm psyched too. the deb'n over the hrrr is killing me. Do y'all read your wives emotional cues like you do model runs? No deb'n at all. You are all gonna get demolished by lots and lots of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 ICON with delayed onset too but verbatim it looks like it rips from 10am-1pm. That’s our make or break time frame on if we get 1-2” or 2-4”/3-6” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Sub freezing at 31 now. Nice to have a multi hour stretch sub freezing before onset. Can make a big difference if rates are light at the beginning. Also, stop looking at the hrrr until precip is overhead or at least close. It uses radar data at initialization and generally does really bad or is very inconsistent when onset is still a number of hours away. Honestly, I've never found the hrrr that useful with winter storms. Globals do far better in general. Great to have you back Bob. Always look forward to your analysis on this board. Don’t let the Debs get you down. Just remember how sad their lives must be to be trolling a weather forum. Let’s bring this one home! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Precip echoes just 5 miles to the south of me. I'm assuming they are virga, but an onset within 2-3 hours would be a little early and well welcome. 38/20. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: ICON with delayed onset too but verbatim it looks like it rips from 10am-1pm. That’s our make or break time frame on if we get 1-2” or 2-4”/3-6” 0z has not been kind so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Appears my call for my area is looking solid for this morning...I'm ok with thatWhat was that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Sub freezing at 31 now. Nice to have a multi hour stretch sub freezing before onset. Can make a big difference if rates are light at the beginning. Also, stop looking at the hrrr until precip is overhead or at least close. It uses radar data at initialization and generally does really bad or is very inconsistent when onset is still a number of hours away. Honestly, I've never found the hrrr that useful with winter storms. Globals do far better in general. NOW, EVERYTHING is absolutely right in the world! YOU. ARE. BACK!!!!!!!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 33 minutes ago, supernovasky said: I can't be the only one who has consistently seen Ferrier come in way too low for ground truth in my backyard. Ferrier is as silly as clown map 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 13 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said: 34/13 just west of ya 32.5/16 just west of ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Just now, Jandurin said: Ferrier is as silly as clown map CRAS worthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 I’ve noticed a trend with some of our events this year. Many storms both rain and snow that would normally get eaten up by the mountains or be delayed because of dry air have overperformed. I remember other years where good returns seemed to never get to us or get eaten up by the mountains. Anecdotal i know but it’s worth noting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wtkidz Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 33/24 2 miles NE of Fredericksburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digital snow Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 33/19 Burke VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 31/13 now. Radar returns reaching Harrisonburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 27/17 Jarrettsville MD Our station is here: 39.580323 -76.477394 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 20, 2019 Author Share Posted February 20, 2019 RGEM has snow starting ~6a in DC. Looks like about 0.4” QPF as snow extrapolating between the 3 hour panels on pivotalweather (likely flip to sleet ~11a) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Babybee2010 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Guess I have to go to work tomorrow here in Harford County, MD.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Sub freezing at 31 now. Nice to have a multi hour stretch sub freezing before onset. Can make a big difference if rates are light at the beginning. Also, stop looking at the hrrr until precip is overhead or at least close. It uses radar data at initialization and generally does really bad or is very inconsistent when onset is still a number of hours away. Honestly, I've never found the hrrr that useful with winter storms. Globals do far better in general. I just shed a tear. Welcome back! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 9 minutes ago, Jandurin said: Ferrier is as silly as clown map At this point when I see Ferrier is the last thing being posted to keep the hype down, I know it's going to be a good system, because it's ALWAYS bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Hrrrr flips by 9am lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: Hrrrr flips by 9am lol By midnight it will flip before it starts. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Just now, Ji said: Hrrrr flips by 9am lol Wow. Still happy hour I see. Much better than I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 33 minutes ago, Kleimax said: Dry air Do you know BaltimoreWxGuy by chance? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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