Solution Man Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Good population tonight in the forum, 142 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Just now, WesternFringe said: Do you know BaltimoreWxGuy by chance? Hey I haven’t mentioned that word once yet 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ji said: Hrrrr flips by 9am lol I hope you mean Thursday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Just now, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Hey I haven’t mentioned that word once yet I am just playing. I remember a storm last winter or the year before where that was your post repeatedly about a storm threat. Annoyingly, you were mostly right that time! lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Here's a tool I made that compares the HRRR radar to the observed radar. It can be useful for determining how the most recent run is doing with precip placement. As you can see, the 02z HRRR does not have the light returns as far north as they actually are. More images can be found here https://jmmweather.com/hrrr/ 8 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 4 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Good population tonight in the forum, 142 We don’t need snow if we have each other. 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 1 minute ago, WesternFringe said: I am just playing. I remember a storm last winter or the year before where that was your post repeatedly about a storm threat. Annoyingly, you were mostly right that time! lol Honestly I do not think dry air is that big of an issue on this one. I think it is more about the trajectory of the heavy precipitation. That mostly goes well to our north west into the Ohio Valley And West PA. So basically I think the precipitation coming our way kind of Is getting sheared out and getting weaker as it comes Northeast. At least that’s how the models see it to a degree 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Augusta County 32/21 Heavy virga according to WHSV radar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 GFS better for DC, compared to 18z. Shitshow north of Bmore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 GFS better for DC, compared to 18z. Shitshow north of Bmore.Every model is different with 6 hours left. Awesome 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: We don’t need snow if we have each other. True Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 8 minutes ago, Jmister said: Here's a tool I made that compares the HRRR radar to the observed radar. It can be useful for determining how the most recent run is doing with precip placement. As you can see, the 02z HRRR does not have the light returns as far north as they actually are. More images can be found here https://jmmweather.com/hrrr/ LOL did I pay you to make this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 20, 2019 Author Share Posted February 20, 2019 Wow at the 00z GFS. DC loses 700mb just before 18z and 0.5”+ QPF has fallen by 18z. I’d side with the 3k/Euro blend vs the GFS at this point but nice to see GFS in the RGEM camp with a nice thump for DC. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Gfs thru 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AACOUNTYMD Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 32/21. I sense some tension. Schools are closed. We are nearing the end of Feb. I count this as a win. No matter what happens. I live in MD after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Honestly I do not think dry air is that big of an issue on this one. I think it is more about the trajectory of the heavy precipitation. That mostly goes well to our north west into the Ohio Valley And West PA. So basically I think the precipitation coming our way kind of Is getting sheared out and getting weaker as it comes Northeast. At least that’s how the models see it to a degree 0Z models do not show that so far. Don’t look at the snow maps— just look at precip total maps through 18Z tomorrow. The aim of the heaviest precip is not where you described. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Just now, Solution Man said: Just now, Ji said: Gfs thru 18z GFS is my favorite model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Wow at the 00z GFS. DC loses 700mb just before 18z and 0.5”+ QPF has fallen by 18z. I’d side with the 3k/Euro blend vs the GFS at this point but nice to see GFS in the RGEM camp with a nice thump for DC. Sounding at 18z at DCA looks isothermal up at 700mb... so just barely hanging on to snow if its pounding IMO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 This is going to start on the earlier side of projections IMO. Snow is progressing nicely up the Shenandoah Valley. My projected start time is between 1-3 and I would lean towards closer to 1 than 3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs thru 18z Wow NOVA and D.C. get the business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 20, 2019 Author Share Posted February 20, 2019 FV3 agrees with the GFS with a flip just before 18z in DC. Probably about 0.4” of snow on FV3 for DC. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs thru 18z After double checking all the differential equations on the gfs through hr18 I've comfirmed that the 0z run is dead balls accurate. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, AACOUNTYMD said: 32/21. I sense some tension. Schools are closed. We are nearing the end of Feb. I count this as a win. No matter what happens. I live in MD after all. No tension. All good. This is all very normal for in here. Lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: After double checking all the differential equations on the gfs through hr18 I've comfirmed that the 0z run is dead balls accurate. As long as you double checked it with the federal department of weights and measures, I'm satisfied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 12 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: Augusta County 32/21 Heavy virga according to WHSV radar I'm about 50 miles SSW of you, first flakes are drifting down after about an hour of 20-30 dbz overhead. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: After double checking all the differential equations on the gfs through hr18 I've comfirmed that the 0z run is dead balls accurate. Interesting. A My Cousin Vinny reference. Marisa Tomei deserves that Oscar. Don’t care what the critics said. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Snow picking up in intensity here in ROA. Mod-heavy dbz’s inbound from Blacksburg and points west. Hoping to overcome borderline temps here. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Toppper on Channel 9 DC now just going with 1 to 3 in DC Metro and Baltimore, with 3 to 5 north and west. He cites “sleet” as reason he’s lowering totals.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 20, 2019 Author Share Posted February 20, 2019 00Z HRDPS is a beatdown. It has snow reaching DC between 5-6a. Sleet line still SW of the city through 18z. 0.75” has fallen in DC by then. Lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 1-3 in the cities seems low. Especially Baltimore. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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