das Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 29.7°F/15F here in Clarksburg. High clouds are starting to obscure the moon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Right on que, CWG lowers amounts again....dry air will delay the onset apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digital snow Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Day off (can wear my pajamas) -check snow -check = win even if it's sunny and I get to go to the driving range 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 20, 2019 Author Share Posted February 20, 2019 1 minute ago, jewell2188 said: Right on que, CWG lowers amounts again....dry air will delay the onset apparently. They went from 3-7” to 3-6” for NW of 95. From 2-5” to 2-4” for 95. Seems reasonable given where we’ve been the last 48 hours. And knowing the CWG, they’ll keep updating their map until the storm is over to make sure they can give themselves an A for their forecast. 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: Right on que, CWG lowers amounts again....dry air will delay the onset apparently. Just doesn't seem likely with this radar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 MyFoxDC's Mike Thomas pointed out that soundings are looking better than some of the model depicted precip-types fwiw. You can confirm it on PivitolWeather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Just now, nj2va said: They went from 3-7” to 3-6” for NW of 95. From 2-5” to 2-4” for 95. Seems reasonable given where we’ve been the last 48 hours. Do they still use their boom and bust scenarios that allow them to cover every outcome and never bust? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Just now, PhineasC said: Do they still use their boom and bust scenarios that allow them to cover every outcome and never bust? Yeah, it’s a pretty brutal way to go about it. They should really just make a forecast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 33/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 In my experience here in the Shenandoah Valley, the HRRR does poorly until the moisture has cleared the Alleghenies. It's almost as if it can't decide how much will make it over, but since it runs every hour it starts to show better results once it samples how much precip actually did make it over. * *Official Weenie Handbook Rule #3241 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 20, 2019 Author Share Posted February 20, 2019 Just now, PhineasC said: Do they still use their boom and bust scenarios that allow them to cover every outcome and never bust? Yep, they give me a 50% chance of 2-4”, 25% chance of less than 2”, and 25% chance of up to 7”. Way to go out on a limb and actually make a forecast. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 36/12 in Woodbridge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digital snow Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Just now, DCTeacherman said: Yeah, it’s a pretty brutal way to go about it. They should really just make a forecast. It is the new wave in forecasting. There is a (insert %) this will happen. I actually like it, statistics. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Yeah, it’s a pretty brutal way to go about it. They should really just make a forecast. NWS does it now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 My temps right now: Outside Temperature 36.4°F Wind Chill 29.7°F Heat Index 36.4°F Dewpoint 18.1°F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 getting close to go time in Charlottesville. Ready for a sleepless night. I need classes cancelled tomorrow. 38/20. Rooting for a good wetbulb. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Officially below freezing here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Yeah, it’s a pretty brutal way to go about it. They should really just make a forecast. It just gives them the ability to never be “wrong” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 29/12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 4 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Yeah, it’s a pretty brutal way to go about it. They should really just make a forecast. They do. It's called probabilistic forecasting. And if they fall outside their core ranges, they'll grade themselves lower. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Just now, Interstate said: 29/12 I'm thinking 2-5" with some ZR for you and my old stomping grounds. Going to look pretty nasty around the area. Can only imagine Harford Rd Jarretsville Pike will be a complete mess 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digital snow Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Burke, Va 34/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 I just took some surface readings of the Chesapeake Bay with my IR temperature gun - not the most accurate, but gives a good idea: 26-27F. Ground is still a bit mushy (not frozen) but the grass is getting very cold too - sub-25F everywhere I checked. Even though the air temperature is still reading 36.4F. I don't know how well calibrated the temperature gun is, but I've used it before and it seemed pretty accurate in warmer weather. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Seems like alot of people dont like cwg. Maybe its their tone or personalities or they pretend they dont like snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 1 minute ago, digital snow said: It is the new wave in forecasting. There is a (insert %) this will happen. I actually like it, statistics. Just now, Fozz said: They do. It's called probabilistic forecasting. And if they fall outside their core ranges, they'll grade themselves lower. Meh, I understand it, I just don’t particularly like it or think it’s very useful. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Dry air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 7 minutes ago, Solution Man said: 36/12 in Woodbridge 34/13 just west of ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Should I turn around? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Seems like alot of people dont like cwg. Maybe its their tone or personalities or they pretend they dont like snow I actually do like CWG I just don’t like their snowmaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said: 34/13 just west of ya Waiting patiently down to 33/17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now