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2/20-21 Thump to Ice Winter Storm Threat


Newman

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Still looking at 3-6 per the NWS.  I'm thinking four, or maybe a match to my 3.75" from the last storm.  I'm likely gonna head to bear creek in Macungie PA, their forecast is very similar to mine.  Snow starts at 9am and switches to sleet by 6pm.  Enough time to get up there, ride for a bit, and hopefully beat the sleet!  Hoping 100 and 724 are in decent shape, they're both sketchy roads.  Maybe I'll take the turnpike back to be safe, even if it takes longer. I'll report my totals when I get home, hopefully before the sleet.    

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9 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

27F/11DP. The radar seems to line up pretty well with the hi-res models. Kamu looks to be first in line, hopefully he can tell us how much virga we're dealing with.

Yes JTA, I can report heavy virga here for about the last 30 minutes. Checked DE & MD webcams and it's snowing pretty good in Baltimore, not much NE of there showing up on the webcams yet. Back to you.

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19 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

If he's having virga troubles then we're in for a wait...

We will be waiting a while. Most mesos showed this virga very well in fact. This is why you cant just just look at a snow map and celebrate. You need to look at the surface reflection then compare to accumulated precip map then look at a skew-t and soundings for the same panel. While most models show it 'snowing' with pretty blues over us at the surface there is nothing accumulating precip-wise until well after 10AM for most of SE PA (some mesos hold off until 12pm). Has been this same look for days which is partly why I havent been seeing what others were seeing regarding this system. Most guidance now has continued to speed up the flip to sleet and rain and overall are in line for a general inch or two of snow most of SE PA before the flip. Really quite unimpressive even moreso than last week imho. If someone can get under banding in SE PA for a bit maybe they can score a quick 3-4" thump but again mesos actually show the lift at 700mb blowing NE  then 'drying out' rapidly behind this first push of WAA. This is also the reason for the surge of mid level warmth and faster flip for SE PA. Good luck all. Looking at an inch or 2 of snow still for Warminster out of this. Wiggum Rule went 2 for 2 this season anyway (snow 5 days after temps of 60) but now that date range I use will be behind us so any 60s here on out means spring is around the corner.

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

We will be waiting a while. Most mesos showed this virga very well in fact. This is why you cant just just look at a snow map and celebrate. You need to look at the surface reflection then compare to accumulated precip map then look at a skew-t and soundings for the same panel. While most models show it 'snowing' with pretty blues over us at the surface there is nothing accumulating precip-wise until well after 10AM for most of SE PA. Has been this same look for days which is partly why I havent been seeing what others were seeing regarding this system. Most guidance now has continued to speed up the flip to sleet and rain and overall are in line for a general inch or two of snow most of SE PA before the flip. Really quite unimpressive even moreso than last week imho. If someone can get under banding in SE PA for a bit may e they can get a quick 3-4" thump but again mesos actually show the lift at 700mb blowing NE  then drying put rapidly behind this first push of WAA. Thi is also the reason for the surge if mid level warmth and faster flip for SE PA. Good luck all. Looking at an inch or 2 of snow still for Warminster out of this. 

Disappointing, thanks for the info.

This is a double crappy whammy. First, long duration of virga then when it starts to snow, quicker than expected turnover. That's torture...

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