Birds~69 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 49 minutes ago, The Iceman said: hmmm GFS and FV GFS aren't quite there but it took a step towards the nam with a further N track with the WAA and precip arrives sooner. Colder as well. Good trends thus far at 12z. MA forum is probably starting to freak out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Still not buying in for 6" snow in PHI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 I am not concerned so much with a north trend at this point (I think it will happen) as I am with an EAST trend. Good stuff still too far NW. But that has been the theme of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 59 minutes ago, Chief83 said: Wonder when NWS-PHL converts the watch to a warning or an advisory? Be surprised to get nothing here in Montgomery County, PA. Probably in the afternoon package. They have a 12-hour & a 24 hour criteria per my post here - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Probably in the afternoon package. They have a 12-hour & a 24 hour criteria per my post here - Yeah they mention in this mornings AFD update that they will be updated at 4pm with the afternoon package Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 here's my crude first and final call ignore the top part, I just needed a base map. West of Blue is 3-6 snow/sleet .1-.25 frz, black to blue is 1-3" snow/sleet +.05-.1 frz. Below black is C-1". I think this will play out similar to last week but the NW will do better than last week. Hope I'm wrong and this one surprises though on the 95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: MA forum is probably starting to freak out.... It's a rough hobby they are tenaciously following this and there has been some melting down in there even from veteran posters recently which is hard to fathom they are near normal for their winter snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Expectations set at 1" this could be a little better than the last Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 19, 2019 Author Share Posted February 19, 2019 Long Range HRRR: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just got a WSWarning. Bold, but it does seem parts of ChesCO will meet the criteria. I'm pretty sure I won't (right) here. KSQ Avondale area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Philly Public and Archdiocesan schools just announced they will be closed tomorrow. Suburban Archdiocesan schools will follow their local district announcements - per KYW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Downgraded from a Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Weather Advisory here for 1-3" of snow and a light glaze of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 NWS cut down totals in spots, they don't seem too enthused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Rtd208 said: Downgraded from a Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Weather Advisory here for 1-3" of snow and a light glaze of ice. The Winter Storm Watch isn't really an "advisory" or "warning" notice so not a "downgrade". It's a heads-up announcement to let the public know that one of the alert types will be forthcoming depending on criteria. Here is where they put the Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 13 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: The Winter Storm Watch isn't really an "advisory" or "warning" notice so not a "downgrade". It's a heads-up announcement to let the public know that one of the alert types will be forthcoming depending on criteria. Here is where they put the Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories - When you go from 3-5" of snow expected down to 1-3" I would say that is a downgrade regardless of what a watch, warning or advisory mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kickingupastorm Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Ardmore PA (Montgomery County) down graded to a Winter Weather Advisory. What a disgusting winter this has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 21 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: When you go from 3-5" of snow expected down to 1-3" I would say that is a downgrade regardless of what a watch, warning or advisory mean. The "3" (whether that is the highest progged or lowest progged) does still fit into the criteria for an advisory. Otherwise they would have just put a mention in their HWO without any alerts and maybe lofted a SPS (perhaps as a short-fused one) for hazardous weather. I think some of the thinking too is if there will be disruptive winter wx, they will err towards going with an Advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 46 minutes ago, kickingupastorm said: Ardmore PA (Montgomery County) down graded to a Winter Weather Advisry. What a disgusting winter this has been. A "Watch" is just a "Watch". It's like a placeholder announcement that can eventually become either a Winter Weather Advisory or a Winter Storm Warning depending on whether the forecast reaches the criteria at a location. Just like a "Tornado Watch" can become a "Tornado Warning" or not and gets assigned to be some kind of other severe weather alert. Or a "Flood Watch" can become a "Flood Warning" or a "Flood Advisory" depending on what is ongoing (or forecast to happen) at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 12 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: A "Watch" is just a "Watch". It's like a placeholder announcement that can eventually become either a Winter Weather Advisory or a Winter Storm Warning depending on whether the forecast reaches the criteria at a location . Just like a "Tornado Watch" can become a "Tornado Warning" or not and gets assigned to be some kind of other severe weather alert. Or a "Flood Watch" can become a "Flood Warning" or a "Flood Advisory" depending on what is ongoing (or forecast to happen) at the time. It amazes me that some folks have a hard time distinguishing the difference between a watch, warning, advisory. Seems we go through this every year. I’m in the 4-6 range but my criteria for a warning is 6+ however due to the possibility of icing as well that’s likely why it’s a warning. Should be an interesting storm to watch unfold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 hours ago, RedSky said: It's a rough hobby they are tenaciously following this and there has been some melting down in there even from veteran posters recently which is hard to fathom they are near normal for their winter snowfall. Yeah, I've read some doomsday post...end of the world, it moved N. For them I think they are doing well overall. They usually get completely shafted with every event...at least this year there's actual tracking with snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, penndotguy said: It amazes me that some folks have a hard time distinguishing the difference between a watch, warning, advisory. Seems we go through this every year. I’m in the 4-6 range but my criteria for a warning is 6+ however due to the possibility of icing as well that’s likely why it’s a warning. Should be an interesting storm to watch unfold One thing I do make prodigious use of is the NWS glossary! Here is what they have for "Watch" - https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=Watch Quote Watch A watch is used when the risk of a hazardous weather or hydrologic event has increased significantly, but its occurrence, location, and/or timing is still uncertain. It is intended to provide enough lead time so that those who need to set their plans in motion can do so. And agree that it will be interesting to see what happens - i.e., whether CAD hangs on tough or the cold air really gets scoured out quickly by a surge of warm air off the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: NWS cut down totals in spots, they don't seem too enthused. We're kinda in the 2-3"/3-4' area. That's not too shabby if it pans out. Better than last week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 I like the briefing packages. Just something about slideware lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 I am fully aware and understand the difference between a watch, warning and advisory as I have been following weather for the past 25 years. My "downgrade" comment was more pertaining to the decrease in snowfall amounts which I am not sure I agree with. Mt.Holly should have held with the 3-5" amounts (at least for my area) considering what some of the models were showing today. My hunch is Mt.Holly may increase snowfall amounts once again tomorrow morning at least for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I am fully aware and understand the difference between a watch, warning and advisory as I have been following weather for the past 25 years. My "downgrade" comment was more pertaining to the decrease in snowfall amounts which I am not sure I agree with. Mt.Holly should have held with the 3-5" amounts (at least for my area) considering what some of the models were showing today. My hunch is Mt.Holly may increase snowfall amounts once again tomorrow morning at least for my area. Don't take it personally. You are one of my favorite posters because you are so dedicated with your OBS and I don't feel bad mainly posting OBS too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Don't take it personally. You are one of my favorite posters because you are so dedicated with your OBS and I don't feel bad mainly posting OBS too. Not at all. I probably should have conveyed that a bit better in my initial post and should have used "replaced" instead of "downgraded" pertaining to the watch/advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, Rtd208 said: Not at all. I probably should have conveyed that a bit better in my initial post and should have used "replaced" instead of "downgraded" pertaining to the watch/advisory. I know snow lovers are frustrated this year but I do know that last year we had like 20" of snow in March so we still have another month to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 18z Euro is similiar to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Latest Wxsim with 18z data has flurries arriving across NW Chester County by 630am with Light Snow by 730am and moderate snow by 830am. Snow gets heavy by 1130am and transitions to sleet by 130pm with moderate to near heavy sleet at times most of the afternoon becoming ZR by 730pm - total snow and sleet accumulation (3" to 5") and then continuing as ZR until temps get above freezing by 11pm - Wxsim has 1.23" falling before temps rise above freezing and another 0.70" after temps clear the freezing mark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Hmm. 3-5 forSomoco??At hockey game and have not looked but schools are early dismissal already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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