mappy Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 In case anyone is curious to what to look for on a sounding for sleet first would be a snow/sleet second is sleet quite the 700mb warm nose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 18z NAM is looking colder. More ice than compared to the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Watches are now up for all of the Mount Holly FA, except for the NJ coastal counties. Unless there are some changes with the upcoming guidance, I would expect the MD and DE counties to go to advisories tomorrow, as 2-4" looks reasonable, with probably not much ice at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Maybe I’m looking at it wrong. I only see about 2-4” across most of our area before it flips to sleet. I don’t really see any big thumpy snow totals until up in central PA. Looks like BAD ice though. Some people are into that. I still believe there will be higher snowfall totals west of the cities before the changeover. 4+ to 8. I’m going on my own with that. I’ve seen many times the front end thump be an over performer over the colder locations. Cities 2-4. Agree completely on prolonged icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, Wonderdog said: NWS has us in the 6-8 range brother. They're counting on something that most don't agree with. I figure that 5 inches may be our cap in PWC. More than enough to bring out the toy. Certainly and ice. Don’t forget the ice. Could be a good bit of ice. Not sure about 6-8. That’s a tall order no matter the event. 3-4 sounds right to me for just west of the fall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 NWS Charleston first to upgrade to warnings (in our subforum): URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Charleston WV 252 PM EST Mon Feb 18 2019 ...Significant winter storm to affect the area late Tuesday through Wednesday... WVZ520-522>524-526-190400- /O.UPG.KRLX.WS.A.0004.190219T2300Z-190220T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KRLX.WS.W.0005.190220T0300Z-190221T0000Z/ Southeast Nicholas-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas- Southeast Pocahontas-Southeast Randolph- Including the cities of Richwood, Snowshoe, Marlinton, and Harman 252 PM EST Mon Feb 18 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of two tenths to four tenths of an inch expected. * WHERE...Southeast Nicholas, Southeast Webster, Northwest Pocahontas, Southeast Pocahontas and Southeast Randolph Counties. * WHEN...From 10 PM Tuesday to 7 PM EST Wednesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Maybe I’m looking at it wrong. I only see about 2-4” across most of our area before it flips to sleet. I don’t really see any big thumpy snow totals until up in central PA. Looks like BAD ice though. Some people are into that. Same here. I live in Crofton (central-northern AA) and I would LOVE for LWX's current forecast map to pan out IMBY (4-6"). Me thinks it'll more likely be 2-4", and fearing closer to 2-3" than 4". But we'll just have to enjoy the rest of the precip during the afternoon while surface temps remain below freezing. Very curious to see how much sleet vs. ice we'll all get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Maybe I’m looking at it wrong. I only see about 2-4” across most of our area before it flips to sleet. I don’t really see any big thumpy snow totals until up in central PA. Looks like BAD ice though. Some people are into that. That's what I'm seeing as well, and in my experience in these setups, snow changes to sleet faster than modeled and sleet and freezing rain changes to rain slower than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Whether I get 2-4 or 3-6, I’m good with. I’ll at least see 3-4 hours of pretty mod to heavy snow. Haven’t had that all winter yet. I doubt I’ll get a lot of icing as by the bay doesn’t do well with that but perhaps some sleet accumulation I’ll take as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, WxMan1 said: Same here. I live in Crofton (central-northern AA) and I would LOVE for LWX's current forecast map to pan out IMBY (4-6"). Me thinks it'll more likely be 2-4", and fearing closer to 2-3" than 4". But we'll just have to enjoy the rest of the precip during the afternoon while surface temps remain below freezing. Very curious to see how much sleet vs. ice we'll all get. Areas out toward Ashburn, Martinsburg, Frederick, Carroll...higher snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: That's what I'm seeing as well, and in my experience in these setups, snow changes to sleet faster than modeled and sleet and freezing rain changes to rain slower than modeled. Yes, mine too. As far back as I can recall around these parts, which would be the early 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 17 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Not sure how much further west you want it, but overall recent guidance seems to at least have it positioned more towards our NE instead of it sliding more to the E/SE. Thats a good trend IMO, and looks to keep the cold in longer. Would like it along the ny/pa border or bit nw of that and not vt/Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Afternoon AFD from LWX [.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Fairly classic pattern with a potent low moving into the Great Lakes and coastal redevelopment taking place with a pretty significant cold air wedge lingering over the region as high pressure pulls away on Wednesday. Cold, dry air mass with slowly moisten up as strong warm advection develops overhead Tuesday night. Snow will overspread the region from southwest to northeast late Tuesday night, with snow likely falling CWA wide, at least briefly, by mid-morning Wednesday. The snow may be heavy at times thanks to the strong low level jet and frontogenesis in the 850-700 mb levels, and this could put down a quick 4-8 inch snowfall thanks to the copious Gulf moisture available. After that, the warm air aloft will overwhelm the region, with snow change to sleet and freezing rain from south to north during the midday and afternoon hours. Overall expect the warm air aloft to be a bit stronger than earlier guidance suggested, so cut snow amounts a bit, while increasing ice amounts a bit, but there are still details to be worked out. If the snow lingers longer, it could be quite heavy, so amounts could be several inches low. If, conversely, the warm advection aloft proves stronger than modeled (not an atypical situation), our snow amounts could prove too high across much of the region. That said, think our current forecast is in the ball park, with a genaral 4-8 inch snowfall across the region within the watch, and lesser amounts in southern Maryland. Ice accumulation is always tough, but hedged towards colder meso guidance and increased longevity and amount of ice. That said, a lot (not all) of the guidance wants to taper precip off at night to a large degree, which might save us from true warning level ice amounts. Either way, however, expect an impactful winter storm. Temps will settle into the 20s Tuesday night, rise slowly Wednesday, and settle in the 30s Wednesday night, with areas northwest of I-95 likely to struggle to rise above freezing while locations closer to the coast have better luck. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: That's what I'm seeing as well, and in my experience in these setups, snow changes to sleet faster than modeled and sleet and freezing rain changes to rain slower than modeled. Yes, upper levels erode rapidly, while colder air hangs on at the surface. The snow will be short lived south of MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: Areas out toward Ashburn, Martinsburg, Frederick, Carroll...higher snowfall Yeah I agree, probably more likely at or above 4", say 4-6", but 8" is really pushing it with this setup (750-700 mb warming, which is completely independent of the strength if the CAD down below). Still, highly impactful as you noted, especially west of 95. 4-6" snow, plus a layer of sleet and ice accretion to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Nam text output has JYO at 4.1" snow and roughly .71 qpf as sleet after. Sign me up for that! Very little freezy rain and no plain rain at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 13 minutes ago, nj2va said: 3k is a pretty crazy storm for Garrett (especially central/eastern parts of the county) and Frostburg/Cumberland. Over 2.5” QPF and temps never get above freezing. Excessive precip amounts on the 3k NAM for that area. Having seen many storms like this growing up there, these events can be much more severe in the valley around Cumberland than even the high ground Frostburg and west. Certain locales where the cold banks up against the ridges like Eckhart, Vale Summit, Clarysville, Lonaconing, Mt Savage, Barrelville, Corriganville and Hyndman can really take it on the chin with heavy ice in these type of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: that falls way short of my goal of 5 2" of sleet on top of 4" of snow far exceeds your goal. Your school marms will get the day off and idolize you like you're Bob Chill. All hail King Ji...master of the wintry mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 I like the 18z 3k NAM a lot. Delays the flip to sleet another hour or two and then dumping sleet for hours. TT is loading slow so can't see total precip but looks decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, WxUSAF said: I like the 18z 3k NAM a lot. Delays the flip to sleet another hour or two and then dumping sleet for hours. TT is loading slow so can't see total precip but looks decent. Here's pivotal. It's pretty robust area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: I like the 18z 3k NAM a lot. Delays the flip to sleet another hour or two and then dumping sleet for hours. TT is loading slow so can't see total precip but looks decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 What does sleet usually go for ratio-wise? 7:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Heavy snow in RIC at 10z on Wed, per the 3K NAM. Doesn't look to transition over to rain until way later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, T. August said: What does sleet usually go for ratio-wise? 7:1? 2 or 3:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I like the 18z 3k NAM a lot. Delays the flip to sleet another hour or two and then dumping sleet for hours. TT is loading slow so can't see total precip but looks decent. Is that for Columbia where you are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, T. August said: What does sleet usually go for ratio-wise? 7:1? I think 2 or 3:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 21 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Certainly and ice. Don’t forget the ice. Could be a good bit of ice. Not sure about 6-8. That’s a tall order no matter the event. 3-4 sounds right to me for just west of the fall line. I set my bar at 4” last night. Certainly doable. East pwc looks to be a split line, as it always is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 The NAM is really nasty for the I81 corridor. Basically Luray up to Hagerstown will be awful for travel. Still like 5-8 for the northern Shen Valley with a ton of sleet on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, T. August said: What does sleet usually go for ratio-wise? 7:1? 3:1 I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, nj2va said: 2 or 3:1. Damn never would have guessed it was that low. Maybe I’m wrong I just don’t see how this is anything of note outside of the freezing rain deal. I mean it looks like even in favored areas 3-4” of snow with an inch of sleet then freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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