yoda Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Individual members of the 12z GEFS FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, yoda said: Pic to show it 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Ukie total precip. Even better than I thought with a good distribution. keeping the best snow in nova/md it looks like for both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: Individual members of the 12z GEFS FWIW Assuming that the GEFS are still useful at this range I would say images like that should provide a ton of confidence from a forecaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, LP08 said: Ukie total precip. Even better than I thought with a good distribution. How much qpf before we lose the column? Dc area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Can someone get us access to the UK snow map? I know flawed algorithm, but I want to see the orientation of the shield. Don't you have it? @NorthArlington101 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Assuming that the GEFS are still useful at this range I would say images like that should provide a ton of confidence from a forecaster GEFS are not particularly useful at this range and in particular for a CAD situation with likely banding within the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, WxUSAF said: GEFS are not particularly useful at this range and in particular for a CAD situation with likely banding within the precip shield. Still got to love their consistency! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Can someone get us access to the UK snow map? I know flawed algorithm, but I want to see the orientation of the shield. Don't you have it? @NorthArlington101 Someone already posted the precip map. that should be fine for what you need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Still got to love their consistency! has to add confidence at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Still got to love their consistency! They're only consistent because the perturbations to generate the ensembles have minimal influences for something within 48 hours. They're basically low-resolution Op clones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: GEFS are not particularly useful at this range and in particular for a CAD situation with likely banding within the precip shield. sounds good but looking at those images you can at least say that exact thing that each is showing is going to happen...whatever that thing is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 29 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Assuming that the GEFS are still useful at this range I would say images like that should provide a ton of confidence from a forecaster i dedicate that image to @Bob Chill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 32 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Assuming that the GEFS are still useful at this range I would say images like that should provide a ton of confidence from a forecaster That’s pretty consistent among the members. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: That’s pretty consistent among the members. Wow. Yeah but I would hope it would be consistent. We are only a 36 out until game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Does Weather Channel use a proprietary model? They are saying 3-5" Tuesday overnight and then 5-8" more on Wednesday for here in Augusta County. While I would like to believe that 8-13" total, models say we flip to sleet before that much snow falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 37 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GEFS are not particularly useful at this range and in particular for a CAD situation with likely banding within the precip shield. 34 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: They're only consistent because the perturbations to generate the ensembles have minimal influences for something within 48 hours. They're basically low-resolution Op clones. WxUSAF is wise... ensembles aren't very useful anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 12z Euro looks similar for MBY...2-4" then mix, then flip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, Deck Pic said: 12z Euro looks similar for MBY...2-4" then mix, then flip Realistically that’s what this will probably be in DC proper, very surprised to see LWX with 6-8 on their map for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Found a cool site for seeing P-TYPE qpf... can do NAM/3k/GFS. Airports are on the bottom left, you can switch it around. E.x. for CHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, SnowCane said: Forgive me because I'm new here but where is MBY? my back yard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Realistically that’s what this will probably be in DC proper, very surprised to see LWX with 6-8 on their map for us. Here is the 4pm depiction....a lot depends on exactly when we flip....closer to midday or closer to mid afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowCane Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, mappy said: my back yard Ahhh thanks man! I figured we weren't talking about Omar N. Bradley airport in Moberly, MO. This makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, SnowCane said: Ahhh thanks man! I figured we weren't talking about Omar N. Bradley airport in Moberly, MO. This makes sense. if anyone is talking about a certain site/airport, they should put a "K" in front. KBWI, KDCA, KIAD that helps cut down the confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, Deck Pic said: Here is the 4pm depiction....a lot depends on exactly when we flip....closer to midday or closer to mid afternoon? If the warm layer was at 850, that would suggest snow for Leesburg-Columbia-Baltimore and points north. But the warm layer is likely above that so would imply sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, WxUSAF said: If the warm layer was at 850, that would suggest snow for Leesburg-Columbia-Baltimore and points north. But the warm layer is likely above that so would imply sleet. Yes...I imagine DC flips closer to midday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Pd2 was an initial thump as well. If we only get that, then 6” is still within reach, which is what we basically got during the first few hours of that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Euro snow map? Whole region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Euro snow map? Whole region? Gimme 2 minutes...Like you I don't need to see a snow map centered on New Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 I feel like CAD systems tend to over perform more often than not. I can recall a few storms in recent years where the cold air hangs on much longer than expected. Wasn’t it only 3-4 years ago when the Shenendoah Valley got a surprise 20” from a storm with a similar setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: Gimme 2 minutes...Like you I don't need to see a snow map centered on New Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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