Eskimo Joe Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, mappy said: anyone east of 95 who thought they were seeing 6-8 were crazy anyways. I was referring to the western suburbs back into Frederick City........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, mappy said: anyone east of 95 who thought they were seeing 6-8 were crazy anyways. Yes. Not sure why people are calling this a "non-event" Really laughable sometimes. Even a relatively moderate snow event putting down 1-4 inches and then sleet/ice is a significant impact event in these parts. I've been steadfast in calling 2-4 inches when asked by coworkers - and then a coating of ice. That's going to be high impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, LeesburgWx said: Correct map Thanks -- I had the right one but.....cache Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowCane Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, mappy said: anyone east of 95 who thought they were seeing 6-8 were crazy anyways. Exactly. Someone may see 6-8 but likely not widespread. Still I'm not sure why some people are throwing around the term "non-event." Seems kinda silly to base your whole attitude towards a storm on a minor snowfall map edit. It's still going to snow, and likely pretty hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 18z 12k NAM is the best run for CHO I've seen all day. Looks like the band dies out before hitting DCA though. Still looks to be a very wintry run. Never a good sign for DCA when CHO is stoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Going back four cycles, this is the best 3k run we've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Going back four cycles, this is the best 3k run we've seen. Yup. 0.4” near DC by the 15z changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 18z Nam 12k is a better run for the metro's imo. The moisture plume coming out of the gulf is aimed further southeast than at 12z. That's a good sign. Hopefully another slight shift at 0z before game time. The potential is definitively there looking at radar down south for some booms for whoever ends up under some of these bands in the morning. You can't predict exact location on that stuff though. You'd think the favored areas stand the best chance but the cities and even points east may be surprised. If the changeover happens an hour later than forecasted...that's potentially an extra 1-2" for someone. Total nowcast. Watch radar. Check surface temps/dews/850mb/925mb/700mb temps. HRRR will shift all over the place in the next 10 hrs. Don't let it get to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: 18z Nam 12k is a better run for the metro's imo. The moisture plume coming out of the gulf is aimed further southeast than at 12z. That's a good sign. Hopefully another slight shift at 0z before game time. Good to see the NAM improving (even if slightly) as it comes into its "wheelhouse". NAM/HerpDerps combo would be acceptable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Going back four cycles, this is the best 3k run we've seen. The first band at 11-12z looks awesome. Will definitely be worth it to be out and about for a jebwalk if it’s right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 The first band at 11-12z looks awesome. Will definitely be worth it to be out and about for a jebwalk if it’s right. 3k shows three distinct bands... one for CHO south, one for DC south, one for N MD. Almost everyone would be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 The models do a great job of giving us an idea of what’s about to unfold. But it’s not gospel where the heavy bands setup/then die etc. if the model is off 50 miles with a band it drastically changes the maps. Long story short we are all in the game at the moment. Going to be a fun Nowcast event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 18z is a better run. Steadier rates...a bit longer time before flip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 18z seems to be ramping up the percip per hour. Tons of dark blue. From RIC to DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zac1245 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 What are we looking at as far as sleet and frozen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Radar is really juiced. Looks like TN is getting blasted. If we can get that stripe to park over DC/BAL, we will get 4-5" in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, PhineasC said: Radar is really juiced. Looks like TN is getting blasted. If we can get that stripe to park over DC/BAL, we will get 4-5" in a few hours. Im going with the RGEM lol. Not sure when it turned into a terrible model. IT was like worshiped a few years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, PhineasC said: Radar is really juiced. Looks like TN is getting blasted. If we can get that stripe to park over DC/BAL, we will get 4-5" in a few hours. Glad someone else sees it besides me, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 And they downgraded the WSW to a WWA here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 3k with a wall of white moving in just in time for the am rush....1-2"/hr rates widespread. Most areas with these rates for 3-4 hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, Ji said: Im going with the RGEM lol. Not sure when it turned into a terrible model. IT was like worshiped a few years ago It actually did great a few years ago and people loved it. Not sure when it got the bad rap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Headed up your way from just outside Richmond at least 20 trucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 NAM is ok... has the DC flip sometime between 10 and 11, probably closer to 10...I like 2-3" before flip and maybe 0.5" sleet on top...on the flip side, it is a cold run, so frozen probably well into mid afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 NONE of the models are catching on to how juiced the radar is and how far east the moisture has made it already. Mount Holly mentioned this in their discussion and I posted it earlier. Radar looks very good right now. Definitely something to keep watching in terms of snow intensity and arrival time of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AACOUNTYMD Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Hi All- Long long long time lurker, first time poster. Just an observation. . . my Weather Underground Ap started out the day giving me 4 inches, then 5 and now I am up to 6 inches for tomorrow. . . However, I have seen some posts (Euro, etc) where the total accumulations have been decreasing and moving north? What does Weather Underground know that some others don't. or visa versa, I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, AACOUNTYMD said: Hi All- Long long long time lurker, first time poster. Just an observation. . . my Weather Underground Ap started out the day giving me 4 inches, then 5 and now I am up to 6 inches for tomorrow. . . However, I have seen some posts (Euro, etc) where the total accumulations have been decreasing and moving north? What does Weather Underground know that some others don't. or visa versa, I guess It's a crap app...don't trust it. Use local NWS office and mets on here. You'll win 9/10 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, snowdude said: NONE of the models are catching on to how juiced the radar is and how far east the moisture has made it already. Mount Holly mentioned this in their discussion and I posted it earlier. Radar looks very good right now. Definitely something to keep watching in terms of snow intensity and arrival time of moisture. Honest question: how relevant is the current radar over TN to our storm which is 12+ hours away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, snowdude said: NONE of the models are catching on to how juiced the radar is and how far east the moisture has made it already. Mount Holly mentioned this in their discussion and I posted it earlier. Radar looks very good right now. Definitely something to keep watching in terms of snow intensity and arrival time of moisture. Agreed. Just reviewed the 18Z HRRR and NAM3K and in both cases the precip shield is probably about 40-50 miles farther north than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Pretty crazy that the moisture goes from Texas to the NC coast on radar. That has to go well for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, lpaschall said: Agreed. Just reviewed the 18Z HRRR and NAM3K and in both cases the precip shield is probably about 40-50 miles north. and further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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