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February 19-20th Threat - STORM MODE


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5 minutes ago, feloniousq said:

We have this discussion a fair amount, but the expected/low/high graphics packages just make no sense.  Leesburg's "expected" is 6-8 but the "high end" (10%) is 7?

Yeah I mentioned this last night. It's changed now, but previously they had Baltimore on the border of 4-6/6-8 with a top end of 7. Made literally no sense. How can the 1 in 10 chance be so close or include the forecasted range?

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2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

It may not mean much for us in the DC area, but the radar is blossoming and very impressive In the South at the moment.  Looks very dymamic.

I think part of the problem is, that real heavy stuff just isn’t going to be aimed at us...it’s gonna go into the Ohio valley and west PA. If it was aimed at us it’d be a big time snow storm, that stuff may rob some of the heavy moisture to the east. 

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IMO the euro would have been a very good run...except the DC area kind of got stuck in between bands.  A really nice initial wave went to the south in the early morning and then the second wave went just to the north.  It's possible it goes down that way...or that initial wave holds together more and you don't see that dead zone in between with 1-2" less.  I don't trust any of the guidance to nail that kind of detail even at 24 hours.  

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

IMO the euro would have been a very good run...except the DC area kind of got stuck in between bands.  A really nice initial wave went to the south in the early morning and then the second wave went just to the north.  It's possible it goes down that way...or that initial wave holds together more and you don't see that dead zone in between with 1-2" less.  I don't trust any of the guidance to nail that kind of detail even at 24 hours.  

It looks pretty good for us. If it goes down exactly as the Euro shows i would be happy. 5" of snow and sleet followed by some ZR is good by me. Congrats on the black ops moderator tag. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

IMO the euro would have been a very good run...except the DC area kind of got stuck in between bands.  A really nice initial wave went to the south in the early morning and then the second wave went just to the north.  It's possible it goes down that way...or that initial wave holds together more and you don't see that dead zone in between with 1-2" less.  I don't trust any of the guidance to nail that kind of detail even at 24 hours.  

Agreed. What was noticeable is it starts earlier (between 3am/4am now) and still goes till about 11am before switch over. It also gets DC into better rates a little earlier than the 0z run. Like someone else said, improvement from 0z but not as good as 06z. It'll come down to banding features which global models just won't pick up on.

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2 minutes ago, Joshfsu123 said:

Agreed. What was noticeable is it starts earlier (between 3am/4am now) and still goes till about 11am before switch over. It also gets DC into better rates a little earlier than the 0z run. Like someone else said, improvement from 0z but not as good as 06z. It'll come down to banding features which global models just won't pick up on.

A 1" change in an op run at a specific location is noise.  The Euro has been showing the same general idea for many runs now.  

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

A 1" change in an op run at a specific location is noise.  The Euro has been showing the same general idea for many runs now.  

Agree. It’s just windshield wipering the best banding around by a few 10s of miles. I’d say euro is maybe a nudge toward a widespread 3-5” with the unlucky spot between bands more like 2-3” and the jackpot more like 5-7”. 

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like LWX chopped snow totals down for Montgomery/Howard/Baltimore counties...trending toward a nonevent.

 

2 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

LWX trimming totals north and west....

EDIT and ninja'd by Eskimo Joe

anyone east of 95 who thought they were seeing 6-8 were crazy anyways. 

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