PhineasC Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, mattb65 said: Who is calling for 3 inches of sleet or 0.25 inches of FZRA??? This one is looking like a standard slop storm - 2-4" for most with some boom potential if rates come in hot and heavy followed by pingers for a while then a little ZR then rain overnight. Do you think this is going to snow for 3-5 hours then go straight to rain? Is that your call? A sleet period of hours and hours is not all that common around here. Areas near the metros will have rain mix in and take over earlier. It isn't going to bomb sleet for hours, IMO. That is a rare thing around here. This isn't New England. Maybe that stuff happens up there. I don't think calling for some snow, wintry mix for a little while, then mostly rain is a bold call for DCA, especially during the day with a lame airmass... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Wow at the HRPDPS, what a beatdown. Night and day between the Canadian mesos and the NAMs. Anyone have 6z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, mattb65 said: Who is calling for 3 inches of sleet or 0.25 inches of FZRA??? This one is looking like a standard slop storm - 2-4" for most with some boom potential if rates come in hot and heavy followed by pingers for a while then a little ZR then rain overnight. Do you think this is going to snow for 3-5 hours then go straight to rain? Is that your call? I would suppose it depends on what area you are in. Some areas close to the bay/east of 95 could go from snow to rain. I don't think the majority of the subforum does. Some will never go to straight rain like psu. But Phin is right that the surface is not that cold. Cold for sure for not like it would take a huge jump to go to plain rain with some influence of the city or bay. its nowcasting all the way so no reason to debate it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Roads on my commute today were already brined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, jayyy said: What? As somebody who grew up just NW of NYC in the suburbs just west of the Hudson River, going from snow to rain is extremely common in marginal situations, especially in the later parts of winter. We are expected to hit 60 Thursday, unsure how it’s riridulous that we go to rain with a storm that’s tracking very far to our NW Dca/bwi are not forecasted to to get above 40 on Thursday by the fv3, gfs, nam 3k, or nam12k. Euro, icon and cmc get us into upper 40’s - low 50’s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: A sleet period of hours and hours is not all that common around here. Areas near the metros will have rain mix in and take over earlier. It isn't going to bomb sleet for hours, IMO. That is a rare thing around here. This isn't New England. Maybe that stuff happens up there. I don't think calling for some snow, wintry mix for a little while, then mostly rain is a bold call for DCA, especially during the day with a lame airmass... Well I think you need to adjust your previous posts - you seemed to indicate a transition Snow straight to Rain is what you expected. I think most agree with what you said in this post it'll be snow then pingers - duration TBD - NAM/Euro suggest only a few hours before going to ZR/Rn, other models suggest maybe a bit longer. With strong WAA like what is modeled and a retreating HP, I agree that a long duration pinger fest isn't all that likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 I think you guys are arguing over schematics and need to move along 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Wow at the HRPDPS, what a beatdown. Night and at between the Canadian mesos and the NAMs. Anyone have 6z Euro? Is it ever. Even saw some purple on there indicating really heavy snow falling for a short period in Central MD. Very rarely see that show up on models. Sign me up for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, mattb65 said: Well I think you need to adjust your previous posts - you seemed to indicate a transition Snow straight to Rain is what you expected. I think most agree with what you said in this post it'll be snow then pingers - duration TBD - NAM/Euro suggest only a few hours before going to ZR/Rn, other models suggest maybe a bit longer. With strong WAA like what is modeled and a retreating HP, I agree that a long duration pinger fest isn't all that likely. Yes, the depth of the warm layer increases rather quickly (see the cross-section animation below). The surface is usually the slowest to warm in these types of events with strong HP/ageostrophic low-level flow of cold air. Guidance from the 06z 3-km NAM shows forcing along the frontal surface decreasing in height with time; the greatest frontogenesis over our area is around 600 mb at ~12z, and the frontogenesis weakens and decreases in height with time (tracing the frontal surface). The dry air present at the low levels ahead of the precipitation makes me question if the more intense (>1-2"/hr) snowfall rates will occur beyond a brief period, especially as the forcing weakens after 12z. By the way, the cross-section feature from Tropical Tidbits is fantastic! 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 I think most can agree 2-4 inches is a good call area wide. Kinda reminds me of the mid November snow we had....I think totals ranged from 1-3 with some 4 inch amounts before it change to sleet and rain eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: I think most can agree 2-4 inches is a good call area wide. Kinda reminds me of the mid November snow we had....I think totals ranged from 1-3 with some 4 inch amounts before it change to sleet and rain eventually. depends on your location -- 95 and east stayed below 4", then it went 4-6+" up to the PA line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: I think most can agree 2-4 inches is a good call area wide. Kinda reminds me of the mid November snow we had....I think totals ranged from 1-3 with some 4 inch amounts before it change to sleet and rain eventually. I agree with you yet LWX says 4-6 for me so I’ll hug that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 6z Euro looks more thumpy into the metros than 0z. Still sending the best stuff into northern MD and southern PA but an uptick of the initial thump for what its worth. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 16 minutes ago, mappy said: depends on your location -- 95 and east stayed below 4", then it went 4-6+" up to the PA line. I had 7” here. There were some 8” totals along the PA line just to my west. I missed the storm though stuck in Baltimore trying to get home in god awful traffic and road conditions. 30 was a mess! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: 6z Euro looks more thumpy into the metros than 0z. Still sending the best stuff into northern MD and southern PA but an uptick of the initial thump for what its worth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Euro doesn’t have one consolidated band. It sends waves. An unitial band comes across VA to DC. Then another across MD and into PA. There is “some” minimum between the two that you can see there but the two thumps overlap enough that no one gets screwed too bad. As a result there is no 8-10” area but a very big area of 4-6”. Not a bad idea. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Checking temps, we (DC) are at 0C at 700 by 15z so its really only a few hours of snow before we flip to sleet (I think I read yesterday we want -2c 700 temps for snow). NE MD holds on until 18z at 700. EDIT: We don't lose the surface until 21z in and near the city. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, LP08 said: Checking temps, we (DC) are at 0C at 700 by 15z so its really only a few hours of snow before we flip to sleet (I think I read yesterday we want -2c 700 temps for snow). NE MD holds on until 18z at 700. As others have stated, and i have noticed with these setups, the warm push above the surface comes faster than modeled and the cold at the surface moves out slower than modeled, so I believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Visuals.... the initial band that gets VA to DC west to east the second thump that comes across MD 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: As others have stated, and i have noticed with these setups, the warm push above the surface comes faster than modeled and the cold at the surface moves out slower than modeled, so I believe it. All of the snow in DC and northern VA comes with that initial wave between 5am and 11am. On the euro at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: All of the snow in DC and northern VA comes with that initial wave between 5am and 11am. On the euro at least. It's nice to see the euro on board with it finally with what other guidance had been showing (To a degree). I agree with DC, we will go to sleet faster than any model shows so we will need to maximize what window we have. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Would be great to get some cloud cover in here before solar maximum...even if it's a veil of cirrus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Saw mention of the freezing rain accumulation with temps near freezing .......... no, it won't accumulate on roads, or even hard surfaces many times, but as we saw out here last week out here, it can accumulate easily on trees and power lines. We had temps right around the 30-32 degree mark (KOKV reported 32 the whole time) and ice was able to accumulate to 1/3 - 1/2" on trees and power lines. Many trees down and thousands without power for over 24 hours. So hopefully when we transition it's to sleet then to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Saw mention of the freezing rain accumulation with temps near freezing .......... no, it won't accumulate on roads, or even hard surfaces many times, but as we saw out here last week out here, it can accumulate easily on trees and power lines. We had temps right around the 30-32 degree mark (KOKV reported 32 the whole time) and ice was able to accumulate to 1/3 - 1/2" on trees and power lines. Many trees down and thousands without power for over 24 hours. So hopefully when we transition it's to sleet then to rain. Just drove out that way this weekend. Headed west to Petersburg WV from Winchester. The tree damage was pretty serious in the elevated valleys....There were areas where almost every tree was topped off. I'm sure it looked like a war zone out there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 12Z NAM.....DC is over to sleet by 15Z. .3-.4 has fallen by that time, so sticks with the thinking of 1-3/2-4 snow before the flip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 12z NAM looks to be coming in hot. Dry Slot at 08z in RIC. I'm sure it's a model hiccup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Rain switch over seems to be happening around 4pm *in Richmond*. Ice looks to be a threat more so than before. I think the models are picking up on the CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 ^^ talking about Richmond. Folks, if you are going to be doing model play by play, please please please be specific on what area you are talking about when you do so. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hyphnx said: Rain switch over seems to be happening around 4pm. Ice looks to be a threat more so than before. I think the models are picking up on the CAD in RIC? so you are frozen until that point? interesting I wouldn't have thought that. location dependent there too for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, mappy said: ^^ talking about Richmond. Folks, if you are going to be doing model play by play, please please please be specific on what area you are talking about when you do so. This. Especially if you're on mobile, it's hard to understand where a poster is talking about. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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