WVclimo Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 DT's call: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: NWS says no significant changes at 0z runs. I guess will see what happens. If it were colder leading in I would be more enthused. Big day and night coming up. 4th quarter of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Still don’t see anything that changes my thinking for MBY. 2-4”, sleet, glaze of ice on typical surfaces then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, nj2va said: Still don’t see anything that changes my thinking for MBY. 2-4”, sleet, glaze of ice on typical surfaces then rain. Agree that’s spot on. Taking off for this one regardless of OPM. Someone has to watch the thermometer at my house and do obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 27 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: NWS says no significant changes at 0z runs. There really isn't...Euro is driest and warmest (shocker) and GFS does a quicker transition to rain south of I-70 than the short term guidance, but it's been well discussed about how the GFS doesn't have the greatest resolution and picking up on in situ CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 NWS - Warning for Purcellville shows the 4 to 6 inches. Point and click shows 5 to 9 inches. Expected is 7" on winter page. I am thinking 4 to 6 inches personally. Then icy mess. Hopefully no power issues but 0.22 inches of ice will be worse than what we just had last week and that was bad news out here, especially just to my west. Gonna be a long next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Yep. The ice is concerning on top of 5 or 6 inches of snow for sure. One nice thing is we torch Thursday afternoon. So at least it won't turn into a glacier. Still feel good about my 5-8 call throughout the area. Maybe a little less towards the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Solid call clskinsfan. I think we see fairly uniform totals from that initial giant slug of snow west of the bay and particularly inland. I’m thinking along the lines of 4” in dc, maybe 5-6” Baltimore (typically hold the column a bit longer) and 6-8” inland. Of course Parrs ridge and elevated areas could lollipop above 8 because of their climo advantage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 18 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: NWS - Warning for Purcellville shows the 4 to 6 inches. Point and click shows 5 to 9 inches. Expected is 7" on winter page. I am thinking 4 to 6 inches personally. Then icy mess. Hopefully no power issues but 0.22 inches of ice will be worse than what we just had last week and that was bad news out here, especially just to my west. Gonna be a long next few days I would say more of a 24 hours period. Looks like we go above freezing Wednesday afternoon and keep on rising to near 60 Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Good morning! Not sure how much weighting goes into the HRDPS, but it seems to still be a nice beat down on the 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: Good morning! Not sure how much weighting goes into the HRDPS, but it seems to still be a nice beat down on the 6z. Yeah RGEM and HRDPS continue be very bullish for the area. RGEM has a very sketchy track record but HRDPS has been better I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Interesting tweet regarding the jet streak to our north. I think it was Milville that mentioned this anomaly yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 I’m going with 2-4 inside the beltway, 3-6 in the closer suburbs and 4-8 north and west towards PSU. A slushy coating at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Several hours after the changeover from ZR to rain, and a heavy line comes through, the sounding still looks very cold, and only a fraction of a degree drop at the surface and this will still be ZR. 6z NAM at 9pm from near Odenton: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 20 minutes ago, Scraff said: Good morning! Not sure how much weighting goes into the HRDPS, but it seems to still be a nice beat down on the 6z. This has the look of reality. The 3K NAM calls for 0.4" of liquid equivalent before the switch to sleet. Am surprised the NWS isn't highlighting the sleet potential. A huge portion or our sub-forum can receive 0.6 inch liquid equivalent as sleet. So much sleet can be crippling. Long story short: 3" to 5" snow followed by 2" or 3" sleet to drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Overnight dew points getting down to the mid teens to 20 before precip onset should help with wet bulbing especially in the cities who needed the most. Fun tracking ahead and nowcast Was just looking at dews on the latest models...Actually thought to myself that 2m temps will likely be 1-3 degrees colder than modeled once wet bulbing takes place. I can see 25/26f well NW of 95. Current dewpt imby is 10....which is about 3 degrees colder than forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 RGEM has not been good at all in the last couple of winters and I feel like HRDPS and RGEM both lean too cold. When the Euro and NAM seem to be in agreement, I think that is probably the way to lean unfortunately, especially when you have the GFS going from snow to rain, which we know is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: RGEM has not been good at all in the last couple of winters and I feel like HRDPS and RGEM both lean too cold. When the Euro and NAM seem to be in agreement, I think that is probably the way to lean unfortunately, especially when you have the GFS going from snow to rain, which we know is ridiculous. Why is that ridiculous? This airmass is not very cold and warmth follows the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, poolz1 said: Was just looking at dews on the latest models...Actually thought to myself that 2m temps will likely be 1-3 degrees colder than modeled once wet bulbing takes place. I can see 25/26f well NW of 95. Current dewpt imby is 10....which is about 3 degrees colder than forecast... Key observation sir. Same here. Dew point is at 12 here, was forecasted to be 15. A few degrees in marginal situations always helps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, osfan24 said: RGEM has not been good at all in the last couple of winters and I feel like HRDPS and RGEM both lean too cold. When the Euro and NAM seem to be in agreement, I think that is probably the way to lean unfortunately, especially when you have the GFS going from snow to rain, which we know is ridiculous. What? As somebody who grew up just NW of NYC in the suburbs just west of the Hudson River, going from snow to rain is extremely common in marginal situations, especially in the later parts of winter. We are expected to hit 60 Thursday, unsure how it’s riridulous that we go to rain with a storm that’s tracking very far to our NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: Why is that ridiculous? This airmass is not very cold and warmth follows the storm. Guidance is pretty unanimous that this transitions to pingers before going over to rain. SWFE almost always go to pingers and often go earlier than models indidcate. Going straight from snow to rain is very unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Why is that ridiculous? This airmass is not very cold and warmth follows the storm. Because the gfs has a known warm bias in these situations and it’s all by itself so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, mattb65 said: Guidance is pretty unanimous that this transitions to pingers before going over to rain. SWFE almost always go to pingers and often go earlier than models indidcate. Going straight from snow to rain is very unlikely. I think some of you guys don't realize 3 inches of sleet and .25 inches of real FZRA is more rare here than a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 24 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Interesting tweet regarding the jet streak to our north. I think it was Milville that mentioned this anomaly yesterday. Going back, I remember a comment a long while back that the Jet Streak was the thing that would bring heaviest snows to an area. Seems to line up well with models, but maybe the more north (NAM) would be more favored for most Precip. Anyways, anyone on a flight from the west gets some serious tailwind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, PhineasC said: I think some of you guys don't realize 3 inches of sleet and .25 inches of real FZRA is more rare here than a foot of snow. Pretty sure I have never seen 3" of sleet...so that makes it more rare than 40" of snow here in Frederick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Because the gfs has a known warm bias in these situations and it’s all by itself so... Yeah I would say anecdotal evidence aside, the GFS is on an island with regards to snow straight to rain. It has a warm bias in these events, and I do agree that with SWFE we've seen ML cold scoured out quicker than modeled, but sfc CAD usually hangs tough (hence making the straight changeover unlikely, especially in our neck of the woods.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Why is that ridiculous? This airmass is not very cold and warmth follows the storm. Because it's going to flip to sleet and freezing rain before it goes to rain. The idea that it's going to jump from snow to rain with that warm nose but a cold surface just show it is out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I think some of you guys don't realize 3 inches of sleet and .25 inches of real FZRA is more rare here than a foot of snow. Who is calling for 3 inches of sleet or 0.25 inches of FZRA in the metro regions??? This one is looking like a standard slop storm - 2-4" for most with some boom potential if rates come in hot and heavy followed by pingers for a while then a little ZR then rain overnight. Do you think this is going to snow for 3-5 hours then go straight to rain? Is that your call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Because it's going to flip to sleet and freezing rain before it goes to rain. The idea that it's going to jump from snow to rain with that warm nose but a cold surface just show it is out to lunch. I hate to keep being a downer, but the surface isn't that cold near and in the cities. Moderate to heavy rain at 31.5 will not freeze anywhere well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: I hate to keep being a downer, but the surface isn't that cold near and in the cities. Moderate to heavy rain at 31.5 will not freeze anywhere well. this. you say it every storm and no one wants to listen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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