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February 19-20th Threat - STORM MODE


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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Fv3 is the best solution for the most people in here.  It’s a beat down for the whole area northern VA to northern MD.  Best surge of precip early in the day.  

 

So that’s RGEM, GFS and FV3 showing beat downs for DC metro?   NAM showing a nice 2-4” thump followed by heavy sleet.  

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4 minutes ago, Amped said:

This event reminds me of December 2013.  Have a warmfront shooting out bands of precip like they're photon torpedoes.  If you get under a band, it's 6-10 easily, if not then you end up with very little, so it's going to be the luck of the draw here.

It’s pretty similar in that the best dynamics are down by you guys at the base of the high but we are also seeing similarities up here now too in that models generated squat up here with that event beyond 72 hours and slowly produced more and more QPF as they resolved the overrunning.  I ended up with over 5 inches and according to most models 3 days out would have had nothing 

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I over reacted to the NAM earlier. Euro came back south at 18z. Euro/Gfs/fv3/rgem/ggem/icon all target somewhere between northern VA and the PA line.  NAM is still north but often when it’s by itself is when it’s off on a tangent. 

Goalposts keep narrowing and we are still between them!  Fv3 is my favorite so far. It seems to have the most liberal thump coverage and best target trajectory to get the most in here happy.

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Not to dump on your party guys but just beware of the quicker flip to sleet/freezing rain. The mid level warmth push has been underdone (at least up here) on the models 24+ hours out in the storms like this one this year.

Also, the RGEM has been terrible 24+ hours out this year also, last year too if I remember correctly. Idk what happened to that model. I used to be so spot on. Maybe it'll actually perform this storm as it does have support.

Either way, good luck down there. Got 4" here today in what has been one of the worst winter seasons of recent memories here.

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22 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’m getting concerned about a legit ice/sleet storm down here in Central VA. Lots of guidance hitting us with hours of sleet/FRZA.

CMC has me below freezing until 06z Thursday. Good news is it’s 63 by 18z haha.

The only thing I’m ever concerned about is that I don’t jack or get a crippling storm that has a major impact on daily life. 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I over reacted to the NAM earlier. Euro came back south at 18z. Euro/Gfs/fv3/rgem/ggem/icon all target somewhere between northern VA and the PA line.  NAM is still north but often when it’s by itself is when it’s off on a tangent. 

Goalposts keep narrowing and we are still between them!  Fv3 is my favorite so far. It seems to have the most liberal thump coverage and best target trajectory to get the most in here happy.

I was under the impression the FV3 snow total maps are innacurate and overdone at the moment, especially when handling sleet.  

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Euro gets light snow into dc by 5am. Flips to ice around 12pm and rain around 3pm. Stripe of 2-4” along 95. 4”+ north and west of the cities. It rains from 3pm Wednesday to midnight in dc. Snow holds on north of Baltimore longer. Not much different than 12z. Might flip an hr quicker. Jackpot south central pa.

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