stormtracker Posted February 19, 2019 Author Share Posted February 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: It played out that way just last month. Sure it did. When no other model had it going north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 FV3. By 15z, 0.4” has fallen in DC. All snow. 700 still safely to the SW near Warrenton-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 GFS 00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We all know it won't play out that way. Especially with a camp of models showing them getting the good stuff. DC has been the sweet spot the past couple storms, so...atmospheric memory? (of course this Baltimorian hopes not, but if I had to bet...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Pretty strange for NAM to be the driest/weakest model at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 fv3 is pulling the 850 back a little at 17z the last couple runs fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Fv3 is the best solution for the most people in here. It’s a beat down for the whole area northern VA to northern MD. Best surge of precip early in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 This event reminds me of December 2013. Have a warmfront shooting out bands of precip like they're photon torpedoes. If you get under a band, it's 6-10 easily, if not then you end up with very little, so it's going to be the luck of the draw here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Fv3 is the best solution for the most people in here. It’s a beat down for the whole area northern VA to northern MD. Best surge of precip early in the day. So that’s RGEM, GFS and FV3 showing beat downs for DC metro? NAM showing a nice 2-4” thump followed by heavy sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Didn’t really see it mentioned but the Canadian is quite a bit better for DC-North. Especially northern MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, Amped said: This event reminds me of December 2013. Have a warmfront shooting out bands of precip like they're photon torpedoes. If you get under a band, it's 6-10 easily, if not then you end up with very little, so it's going to be the luck of the draw here. It’s pretty similar in that the best dynamics are down by you guys at the base of the high but we are also seeing similarities up here now too in that models generated squat up here with that event beyond 72 hours and slowly produced more and more QPF as they resolved the overrunning. I ended up with over 5 inches and according to most models 3 days out would have had nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Didn’t really see it mentioned but the Canadian is quite a bit better for DC-North. Especially northern MD Canadians (CMC, RGEM, HDRPS) seem to be the most aggressive with a widespread swath of snow and ice. I mean look at this FRZA output for Central VA. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 HRDPS trying to figure out banding. It’s liked a south band and a north jackpot zone for a couple of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Wow, HRDPS is a beatdown as losetoa6 mentioned. DC flips to sleet around 1pm. By then .6-.7 has fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 I over reacted to the NAM earlier. Euro came back south at 18z. Euro/Gfs/fv3/rgem/ggem/icon all target somewhere between northern VA and the PA line. NAM is still north but often when it’s by itself is when it’s off on a tangent. Goalposts keep narrowing and we are still between them! Fv3 is my favorite so far. It seems to have the most liberal thump coverage and best target trajectory to get the most in here happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 I’m getting concerned about a legit ice/sleet storm down here in Central VA. Lots of guidance hitting us with hours of sleet/FRZA. CMC has me below freezing until 06z Thursday. Good news is it’s 63 by 18z haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Not to dump on your party guys but just beware of the quicker flip to sleet/freezing rain. The mid level warmth push has been underdone (at least up here) on the models 24+ hours out in the storms like this one this year. Also, the RGEM has been terrible 24+ hours out this year also, last year too if I remember correctly. Idk what happened to that model. I used to be so spot on. Maybe it'll actually perform this storm as it does have support. Either way, good luck down there. Got 4" here today in what has been one of the worst winter seasons of recent memories here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 22 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I’m getting concerned about a legit ice/sleet storm down here in Central VA. Lots of guidance hitting us with hours of sleet/FRZA. CMC has me below freezing until 06z Thursday. Good news is it’s 63 by 18z haha. The only thing I’m ever concerned about is that I don’t jack or get a crippling storm that has a major impact on daily life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 The 0z UTC Ecmwf will initialize shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I over reacted to the NAM earlier. Euro came back south at 18z. Euro/Gfs/fv3/rgem/ggem/icon all target somewhere between northern VA and the PA line. NAM is still north but often when it’s by itself is when it’s off on a tangent. Goalposts keep narrowing and we are still between them! Fv3 is my favorite so far. It seems to have the most liberal thump coverage and best target trajectory to get the most in here happy. I was under the impression the FV3 snow total maps are innacurate and overdone at the moment, especially when handling sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodbridge02 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 The Euro does not look good with the precip and it also flips over quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Euro gets light snow into dc by 5am. Flips to ice around 12pm and rain around 3pm. Stripe of 2-4” along 95. 4”+ north and west of the cities. It rains from 3pm Wednesday to midnight in dc. Snow holds on north of Baltimore longer. Not much different than 12z. Might flip an hr quicker. Jackpot south central pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodbridge02 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Basically it's 0.2 to 0.4" precip before flipping to sleet and freezing rain between 12-1 pm. Then it quickly goes over to rain by late afternoon for most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Euro is a slight step back, but it is fine...noise imo...Good night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 6z NAM and 3K NAM not too good in terms of snow. Delayed start time by a little bit and a quicker flip. Really only ~3 hours of snow for most areas. Gotta hope the NAM is out to lunch on this one and the Canadian mesos along with GFS are more correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 That said, we’ve been upgraded to a winter storm warning...4-6” for Baltimore and .1 ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wtkidz Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Well In the sunny south we are a advisory for 2-4 “ We are usually right on the Line so we will see . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2019 Author Share Posted February 19, 2019 So 6z summary NAM: meh..probably reality..2 to 4, some sleet, rain GFS: Likes DC still..but thump to straight rain..ha ICON..likes just north of DC and up to M/D line RGEM...lol, beatdown for just about everyone south of I-70, but especially DC. Look at 14z to 17z. Crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 LWX updated to WSW for majority of the area ~1AM-7PM Wednesday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 NWS says no significant changes at 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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