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February 19-20th Threat - STORM MODE


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Just now, snjókoma said:

3K NAM is a bit of a disaster for DC and south. Area of best rates lifts north very quickly. We're still snow at 15z but verbatim its very light.

Edit: Perhaps disaster is too strong of a word... it still looks like 2-3". just a very unimpressive thump.

Yeah, about a 16z changeover, maybe a quarter inch of precip.  Sleet looks like it could be significant.

The NAMs are basically calling for 2-4” for the DC area and then a nasty ice mix.

 

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1 minute ago, snjókoma said:

3K NAM is a bit of a disaster for DC and south. Area of best rates lifts north very quickly. We're still snow at 15z but verbatim its very light.

Edit: Perhaps disaster is too strong of a word... it still looks like 2-3". just a very unimpressive thump.

Back and forth back and forth. When does this nonsense stop? “Disaster”....what were you really expecting from this? Can we let the models play out before making assumptions. 

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3 minutes ago, snjókoma said:

3K NAM is a bit of a disaster for DC and south. Area of best rates lifts north very quickly. We're still snow at 15z but verbatim its very light.

Edit: Perhaps disaster is too strong of a word... it still looks like 2-3". just a very unimpressive thump.

    it was similar with the 18z cycle.    very unimpressive thump, with heavier precip coming in after the switch to sleet.

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Just now, MN Transplant said:

Yeah, about a 16z changeover, maybe a quarter inch of precip.  Sleet looks like it could be significant.

The NAMs are basically calling for 2-4” for the DC area and then a nasty ice mix.

 

The NAM Nest is basically my first call forecast. The heaviest precip coincides with the jet at 700mb. Once that enters the area, precip blows up, but serious WAA kicks in and changes everyone over. The farther north you are, the better. Pretty typical for this setup. 

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7 minutes ago, Ji said:

Man some really bad model analysis/extrapolation going on here

Enlighten us, then.  It seems pretty reasonable to be looking at the mesos and talking about 700, 850, and 950 temps and timing to me.  The whole end result is dependent on these temps and timing, given qpf doesn't appear to be a problem.

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No significant change on the NAM. Thinking is still the same: 2-4 for the cities and 4-8 in the suburbs west and north of 95. Considerable sleet and FZRA western burbs with impacts, over to rain before ending in the cities. I’m still impressed by the front end thump. Rates of 1-2” per hour, possibly thunder (low prob). 

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5 minutes ago, snowfan said:

3K NAM isn't much different than 18Z for the DC area. Not entirely sure what people are looking at. It's 2-4" snow with a change to sleet.

The thump on the 00z was even less impressive for southern areas than 18z, which wasn't anything special. The trend of the WAA snows being weaker in Virginia is troubling. Certainly not "identical to its previous run" for the top 2/3 of Virginia as you suggest.

18z:

1049619590_ScreenShot2019-02-18at9_37_07PM.png.3a367e4a7ceacd7cb4c40c5f5e5b5c7d.png

 

00z:

582648767_ScreenShot2019-02-18at9_37_28PM.png.a091dffb86d193a7797393a13fc19f41.png

Also, why are we arguing about the NAM?

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2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

One thing not to like on the 3km NAM - the intense rainband at 10pm when it is 33 degrees.

1” frozen through 7pm

1” not frozen after that through 1am

Didn’t look too closely and am mobile ATM, for Westminster how much is frozen? Saw a pivotalwx map of around 6” snow, .7” zr. 

Accurate? @MN Transplant

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9 minutes ago, snowfan said:

3K NAM isn't much different than 18Z for the DC area. Not entirely sure what people are looking at. It's 2-4" snow with a change to sleet.

Yep. In line with the Ferrier-based SLR snow map from the 18Z NAM3. Though I think if the precip isn't as lackluster prior to 16-17Z as the NAM3 suggests, most of us can get closer to 4" (or more) of snow vs. 2". 

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12 minutes ago, Ji said:

Are we even in nam range yet?

I know you are joking, but in reality I am 24 or 25 hours out for onset of precip imby.  I am giving some of the better mesos equal weight to the globals at this point.  Most of all, I am just excited for snow!!  Probably won't beat my 7" on 12/9, but may have 5-6" and copious amounts of sleet on top.  Good enough for me! 

As a bonus, my wife and I both teach, so a day off with my young kids sledding is pretty awesome, and reminds me of growing up in Upstate NY.  It looks like a good storm for 90% of the forum to me, which is rare lately! 

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