MN Transplant Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 3z - 850s of +10, surface temps of 33/34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 You probably want to be about -2C at 700 to ensure you're getting snow. The surge at 700 is going to be strong and we're probably looking at a 3-5 hour window of snow before we flip. Just need to keep expectations in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, MN Transplant said: 3z - 850s of +10, surface temps of 33/34. Impressive waa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 3K NAM is a bit of a disaster for DC and south. Area of best rates lifts north very quickly. We're still snow at 15z but verbatim its very light. Edit: Perhaps disaster is too strong of a word... it still looks like 2-3". just a very unimpressive thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, snjókoma said: 3K NAM is a bit of a disaster for DC and south. Area of best rates lifts north very quickly. We're still snow at 15z but verbatim its very light. Edit: Perhaps disaster is too strong of a word... it still looks like 2-3". just a very unimpressive thump. Yeah, about a 16z changeover, maybe a quarter inch of precip. Sleet looks like it could be significant. The NAMs are basically calling for 2-4” for the DC area and then a nasty ice mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 NAMs are in line with what I’m expecting from this 2-4” before flip to sleet. NAM is almost 1” of frozen QPF here. I am 100% on board with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, snjókoma said: 3K NAM is a bit of a disaster for DC and south. Area of best rates lifts north very quickly. We're still snow at 15z but verbatim its very light. Edit: Perhaps disaster is too strong of a word... it still looks like 2-3". just a very unimpressive thump. Back and forth back and forth. When does this nonsense stop? “Disaster”....what were you really expecting from this? Can we let the models play out before making assumptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 One thing I am noticing is the CAD is not that impressive at onset on the NAM. The surface cools rapidly with the intense precip. But heading in to the event it isnt really that cold. I would love to see some of those low to mid 20's in PA drain into the area a little earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, snjókoma said: 3K NAM is a bit of a disaster for DC and south. Area of best rates lifts north very quickly. We're still snow at 15z but verbatim its very light. Edit: Perhaps disaster is too strong of a word... it still looks like 2-3". just a very unimpressive thump. it was similar with the 18z cycle. very unimpressive thump, with heavier precip coming in after the switch to sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 NAM seems right in line with 2-4” snowfall in DC metro before flipping to sleet for a while. I’ll take that considering where we were not too long ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, MN Transplant said: Yeah, about a 16z changeover, maybe a quarter inch of precip. Sleet looks like it could be significant. The NAMs are basically calling for 2-4” for the DC area and then a nasty ice mix. The NAM Nest is basically my first call forecast. The heaviest precip coincides with the jet at 700mb. Once that enters the area, precip blows up, but serious WAA kicks in and changes everyone over. The farther north you are, the better. Pretty typical for this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ji said: Man some really bad model analysis/extrapolation going on here Enlighten us, then. It seems pretty reasonable to be looking at the mesos and talking about 700, 850, and 950 temps and timing to me. The whole end result is dependent on these temps and timing, given qpf doesn't appear to be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 3K NAM isn't much different than 18Z for the DC area. Not entirely sure what people are looking at. It's 2-4" snow with a change to sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 No significant change on the NAM. Thinking is still the same: 2-4 for the cities and 4-8 in the suburbs west and north of 95. Considerable sleet and FZRA western burbs with impacts, over to rain before ending in the cities. I’m still impressed by the front end thump. Rates of 1-2” per hour, possibly thunder (low prob). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Everything from here on out will be incremental shifts. Can’t see sig changes any longer, it’s all but locked in. High res models should be viewed with more brevity than the globals at this point. Know the pattern and CAD setups always give a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, snowfan said: 3K NAM isn't much different than 18Z for the DC area. Not entirely sure what people are looking at. It's 2-4" snow with a change to sleet. 2-4” seems like a good forecast right now for DC followed by hours of sleet and glaze of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, snowfan said: 3K NAM isn't much different than 18Z for the DC area. Not entirely sure what people are looking at. It's 2-4" snow with a change to sleet. The thump on the 00z was even less impressive for southern areas than 18z, which wasn't anything special. The trend of the WAA snows being weaker in Virginia is troubling. Certainly not "identical to its previous run" for the top 2/3 of Virginia as you suggest. 18z: 00z: Also, why are we arguing about the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 One thing not to like on the 3km NAM - the intense rainband at 10pm when it is 33 degrees. 1” frozen through 7pm 1” not frozen after that through 1am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: One thing not to like on the 3km NAM - the intense rainband at 10pm when it is 33 degrees. 1” frozen through 7pm 1” not frozen after that through 1am Didn’t look too closely and am mobile ATM, for Westminster how much is frozen? Saw a pivotalwx map of around 6” snow, .7” zr. Accurate? @MN Transplant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 closer view of the 00z NAM Snow depth map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 LWX more bullish than what the NAM just spit out for my zone forecast. Gonna go with that for now. 1-2 tomorrow night 3-7on Wednesday. Personal call is 2-4 with sleet then ice and plain rain by 6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Snowchaser said: closer view of the 00z NAM Snow depth map I would use the tropical tidbits total snowfall. It is much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 9 minutes ago, snowfan said: 3K NAM isn't much different than 18Z for the DC area. Not entirely sure what people are looking at. It's 2-4" snow with a change to sleet. Yep. In line with the Ferrier-based SLR snow map from the 18Z NAM3. Though I think if the precip isn't as lackluster prior to 16-17Z as the NAM3 suggests, most of us can get closer to 4" (or more) of snow vs. 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 26 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Let's just say Pivotal maps disagree. Has DCA flipping by 16z or so. It wouldn’t shock me to wake up to pingers. Hoping I can hold on until mid morning with a nice 2-3” base Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, PDIII said: I would use the tropical tidbits total snowfall. It is much better that includes sleet though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Didn’t look too closely and am mobile ATM, for Westminster how much is frozen? Saw a pivotalwx map of around 6” snow, .7” zr. Accurate? @MN Transplant Roughly, though more of that will be sleet than zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 At some point I’m just gonna look at soundings. Flip time Is kind of all that matters to me right. FWIW, models were dead on about flip time on feb 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 12 minutes ago, Ji said: Are we even in nam range yet? I know you are joking, but in reality I am 24 or 25 hours out for onset of precip imby. I am giving some of the better mesos equal weight to the globals at this point. Most of all, I am just excited for snow!! Probably won't beat my 7" on 12/9, but may have 5-6" and copious amounts of sleet on top. Good enough for me! As a bonus, my wife and I both teach, so a day off with my young kids sledding is pretty awesome, and reminds me of growing up in Upstate NY. It looks like a good storm for 90% of the forum to me, which is rare lately! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Anyone notice the storm cells back in Kentucky around hour 40 on the NAM 3km? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 RGEM looks really good for NOVA and DC. around .6 or .7 as snow before the flip. Then heavy sleet afterward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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