stormtracker Posted February 19, 2019 Author Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, losetoa6 said: Longgg range HRRR at hr 36 ..12z Wed . Its juiced if nothing else Whoa...kinda crazy on that map..But IIRC the HRRR track record that far out isn't that great 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 30 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Isn't this just an expanse of the precipitation field? Yes. The snowfall totals and precip shield shifted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 00z NAM is trending stronger. https://imgur.com/a/sBesIEf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Part of the precip that becomes the thump is notably east in Arkansas at hr19 on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 More CAD now.. better trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Am I correct to say a stronger early precip shield would reduce the liquid rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Stronger and faster at 30 on NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 18z suites doing their usual thing. Overdoing precip. 6z and 18z seem to always do this. The 12z and 0z suites with more data input always bring us back to reality. That being said... I see 4-8” for almost all of Maryland west of the bay and NoVA. 6-10” in Westminster and surrounding areas. Leesburg is in an interest spot. I think they could max as well 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, Solution Man said: Stronger and faster at 30 on NAM Colder too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2019 Author Share Posted February 19, 2019 Nam now starts at around 10z for DC south 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 The high is a tad stronger and start time a bit quicker on the NAM. Frontegenesis is impressive on the thump. Might see an uptick in snowfall with this run. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 At 12Z wed, most of us are in the snow. The warmth surging at 700 is still comfortably south of DC at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Oh man. The NAM is a shellacking. Starts a couple of hours earlier out here as well. Gives my area .5 of snow in three hours. Absolute smoke job. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2019 Author Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, clskinsfan said: Oh man. The NAM is a shellacking. Starts a couple of hours earlier out here as well. Gives my area .5 of snow in three hours. Absolute smoke job. ARe you past 35 hours already?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 It's better than 18z but it's not quite the hefty storm some of the other short-range models have spit out. Thump doesn't have the longevity or the gusto of some other models. Good trends continue though. edit: I'm out to 39 on Pivotal. It's nothing amazing, I promise 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 The warmth at 700 is surging on the NAM and oriented SE to NW along the Potomac. DC is likely PLSN at 15Z. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Looks like a 3-4” snow around DC which is in line with some of the others. Not a NAMming, but another sign that says it’s going to snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, jayyy said: 18z suites doing their usual thing. Overdoing precip. 6z and 18z seem to always do this. The 12z and 0z suites with more data input always bring us back to reality. That being said... I see 4-8” for almost all of Maryland west of the bay and NoVA. 6-10” in Westminster and surrounding areas. Leesburg is in an interest spot. I think they could max as well Mostly the only thing missing from the 18z and 6z suites are balloon data. There are TONS of other types of data input at each model cycle (current conditions, airplane reports, satellite derived etc). Maybe you see some evidence of this anecdotally - but it's really just the waver back and forth (windshield wiper effect). Nothing to do with 18z vs 0z etc. Looks like we are on tap for a nice winter storm for most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: ARe you past 35 hours already?? Yes 42 on IWM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, clskinsfan said: 18Z we are all still snow. Much colder this run for sure. No, we are sleet by 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 By 18Z, most of the area is over to sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, clskinsfan said: Yes 42 on IWM Let's just say Pivotal maps disagree. Has DCA flipping by 16z or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Slightly worse run for DC than 18z, by an order of 0.5". No big changes, just a reminder that its usually irresponsible to extrapolate a weather model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Taking a stab at something here... Look at all the flood watches in the lower Ohio and Mississippi valleys. Impressive for any system, let alone in Feb. Factoring in the forecast precip field maxes out to our west on the windward side of the mts, it appears the moisture fetch is going to be inbound to the DELMARVA more from the WSW than what we traditionally see from the SW up through the Carolinas. Suppose that's due to the monster ridge off the SE coast. With the fetch taking more of an arched route, does that give the HP NE of the GLs more time to "cool" the the air mass, which in turn allows the CAD to hold longer? We typically see the SE fetches scour out the CAD faster than what's projected this time around. HM commented earlier today on the rare combination of phenomena that's setting the table for this event. Is the above part of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, MN Transplant said: No, we are sleet by 18z. Yes. My mistake. That is what I get for looking at an 850 map. Soundings are sleet at hour 39. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 3k gets snow into DCA by 09z. Into CHO by 06z. Not the most aggressive thump. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 If I'm understanding this right, Baltimore should be expecting about 5 hours of snow before changeover? I'll stick with the 2-4 inches. Seems like a safe call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Warm push at 700mb looks a little stronger this run, the 0C line is further NE toggling back to the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 0.9” qpf, frozen, by 00z at DCA. Losing the surface at that time, though the 950s temps are still cold. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: wow! I don't want to call things off Pivotal maps but despite the early start I think we want to toss this run. Thump isn't very impressive. Warm push slightly faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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