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February 19-20th Threat - STORM MODE


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14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Even in marginal situations in the past, it seems the Ferrier ratio way under did accumulations.  I think ratios will be fine in the snow part and then switch to sleet.  

       yes, although it usually does really well in these snow --> sleet transitions.    I think that what is happening is that the precip total on the NAM3 across the area really isn't impressive until after a warm layer sneaks in (just after 17z).     It's probably cranking out a reasonable SLR when "pure" snow is falling; it just doesn't have enough precip to work with.    Not saying that this is correct - just pointing out why that map looks meager.

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22 minutes ago, PDIII said:

No one is getting 4" inch an hour rates. That's Sierra Nevada powder keg stuff.   I think the most I ever measured in an hour in my lifetime was 3 and that was once in 2010 and once in January 2011.  I think Valentines Day 2015 may have came close.. but that was a frontal passage.. freak show event.

In terms of banding.. Check Mappy's post above. You really dont know where the deathband(s) will set up.   Banding is going to be meso and we probably wont have a handle on it until some time tomorrow night or right before game time.  

Got 4"+ per hour rates in Feb83, along with thunder.  It's possible, but not with this setup .

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4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

It just doesn't have the same push of precip that the other models do, but it does push further south and was before the flip...Does WXbell run the 18z?

Does the Euro still have the "bias" of underdoing QPF before events?  I feel like that was a thing at one point but I'm not sure if its still thrown out incorrectly if its been fixed.

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Seems like the focus region for the heaviest band is narrowing with the entire 18z suite in now after the Euro.  Doesn't mean it won't shift again tomorrow since we still have 36hrs to go, but clearly a trend to focus on the DC-M/D line area.  Which works great for me personally B)

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

Seems like the focus region for the heaviest band is narrowing with the entire 18z suite in now after the Euro.  Doesn't mean it won't shift again tomorrow since we still have 36hrs to go, but clearly a trend to focus on the DC-M/D line area.  Which works great for me personally B)

That’s a great center point location for many of us to see a solid event.  

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LWX has updated their point click. Little rain in their forecast. Baltimore and DC suburbs such as Gaithersburg Olney Ellicott City etc, 4-8” before sleet and freezing rain. Westminster area and the usual snow belt,  5-9” before the slop takeover. 

This initial thump is going to be wild. Someone may get upwards of 10” in a short 6-8 hour window in the elevated areas between parrs ridge PSU and Westminster. 

These types of storms often overperform. They also tend to produce snow to ice before dry slotting us, which would be optimal.  I don’t see many of us getting more than a 0.1-.2 in rainfall. PSU May never see any rain at all

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Euro showing some great rates...and probably more realistic.  Take HGR for example.  Shows 2" at 10am and 6" at 1pm.... As others have mentioned..1-2" per hour will be widespread for a decent period of time.  Not that there couldnt be some sleet in the mix toward the end of that frame but certainly shows the massive slug of precip that will be pushing through mid morning.  Biggest takeaway is the juicing up pre 18z wed...good to see the euro trending wetter.

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38 minutes ago, jayyy said:

LWX has updated their point click. Little rain in their forecast. Baltimore and DC suburbs such as Gaithersburg Olney Ellicott City etc, 4-8” before sleet and freezing rain. Westminster area and the usual snow belt,  5-9” before the slop takeover. 

This initial thump is going to be wild. Someone may get upwards of 10” in a short 6-8 hour window in the elevated areas between parrs ridge PSU and Westminster. 

These types of storms often overperform. They also tend to produce snow to ice before dry slotting us, which would be optimal.  I don’t see many of us getting more than a 0.1-.2 in rainfall. PSU May never see any rain at all

I hope this is true, but we have had several snow to sleet to rain events since 2016 that have busted badly IMBY. However, so far this year we have generally over performed, so that’s on the plus side. 

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