nj2va Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Here is LWX's current thinking re: ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 I guess NWS will update watches in the morning package? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 18z ECMWF came south, even if not significantly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 18z ECMWF came south, even if not significantly It just doesn't have the same push of precip that the other models do, but it does push further south and east before the flip...Does WXbell run the 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 18z ECMWF came south, even if not significantly We're starting to see the goal posts narrow on the qpf max in the front end thump. If everything holds, could be a great event even in DC. You setting up shop in center city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 18z ECMWF came south, even if not significantly I'd say that's a pretty decent shift south and east. 12z and 18z below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Even in marginal situations in the past, it seems the Ferrier ratio way under did accumulations. I think ratios will be fine in the snow part and then switch to sleet. yes, although it usually does really well in these snow --> sleet transitions. I think that what is happening is that the precip total on the NAM3 across the area really isn't impressive until after a warm layer sneaks in (just after 17z). It's probably cranking out a reasonable SLR when "pure" snow is falling; it just doesn't have enough precip to work with. Not saying that this is correct - just pointing out why that map looks meager. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, MillvilleWx said: We're starting to see the goal posts narrow on the qpf max in the front end thump. If everything holds, could be a great event even in DC. You setting up shop in center city? I don't really have a choice...which is fine..I like seeing the impacts down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 22 minutes ago, PDIII said: No one is getting 4" inch an hour rates. That's Sierra Nevada powder keg stuff. I think the most I ever measured in an hour in my lifetime was 3 and that was once in 2010 and once in January 2011. I think Valentines Day 2015 may have came close.. but that was a frontal passage.. freak show event. In terms of banding.. Check Mappy's post above. You really dont know where the deathband(s) will set up. Banding is going to be meso and we probably wont have a handle on it until some time tomorrow night or right before game time. Got 4"+ per hour rates in Feb83, along with thunder. It's possible, but not with this setup . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: It just doesn't have the same push of precip that the other models do, but it does push further south and was before the flip...Does WXbell run the 18z? Does the Euro still have the "bias" of underdoing QPF before events? I feel like that was a thing at one point but I'm not sure if its still thrown out incorrectly if its been fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Pretty impressive agreement on the models for the precip max on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Does the Euro still have the "bias" of underdoing QPF before events? I feel like that was a thing at one point but I'm not sure if its still thrown out incorrectly if its been fixed. Probably..it broad brushes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Seems like the focus region for the heaviest band is narrowing with the entire 18z suite in now after the Euro. Doesn't mean it won't shift again tomorrow since we still have 36hrs to go, but clearly a trend to focus on the DC-M/D line area. Which works great for me personally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, WxUSAF said: Seems like the focus region for the heaviest band is narrowing with the entire 18z suite in now after the Euro. Doesn't mean it won't shift again tomorrow since we still have 36hrs to go, but clearly a trend to focus on the DC-M/D line area. Which works great for me personally That’s a great center point location for many of us to see a solid event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 18 minutes ago, snowdude said: I'd say that's a pretty decent shift south and east. 12z and 18z below: Can you show southern VA from this map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 LWX has updated their point click. Little rain in their forecast. Baltimore and DC suburbs such as Gaithersburg Olney Ellicott City etc, 4-8” before sleet and freezing rain. Westminster area and the usual snow belt, 5-9” before the slop takeover. This initial thump is going to be wild. Someone may get upwards of 10” in a short 6-8 hour window in the elevated areas between parrs ridge PSU and Westminster. These types of storms often overperform. They also tend to produce snow to ice before dry slotting us, which would be optimal. I don’t see many of us getting more than a 0.1-.2 in rainfall. PSU May never see any rain at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 26 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Can you show southern VA from this map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, snowdude said: Such even snow amounts in VA north to south east to west. 3-7 inches for 80% of the state. Almost seems too uniform Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 15 minutes ago, snowdude said: Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 hour ago, snowdude said: I'd say that's a pretty decent shift south and east. 12z and 18z below: Isn't this just an expanse of the precipitation field? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Euro showing some great rates...and probably more realistic. Take HGR for example. Shows 2" at 10am and 6" at 1pm.... As others have mentioned..1-2" per hour will be widespread for a decent period of time. Not that there couldnt be some sleet in the mix toward the end of that frame but certainly shows the massive slug of precip that will be pushing through mid morning. Biggest takeaway is the juicing up pre 18z wed...good to see the euro trending wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Isn't this just an expanse of the precipitation field? The max very clearly moved south out of PA into MD/VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 38 minutes ago, jayyy said: LWX has updated their point click. Little rain in their forecast. Baltimore and DC suburbs such as Gaithersburg Olney Ellicott City etc, 4-8” before sleet and freezing rain. Westminster area and the usual snow belt, 5-9” before the slop takeover. This initial thump is going to be wild. Someone may get upwards of 10” in a short 6-8 hour window in the elevated areas between parrs ridge PSU and Westminster. These types of storms often overperform. They also tend to produce snow to ice before dry slotting us, which would be optimal. I don’t see many of us getting more than a 0.1-.2 in rainfall. PSU May never see any rain at all I hope this is true, but we have had several snow to sleet to rain events since 2016 that have busted badly IMBY. However, so far this year we have generally over performed, so that’s on the plus side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Euro likes the same area I was mentioning earlier today for the jack. Martinsburg up through Hagerstown. It put me in that jack zone as well. But I think we might sleet too early down this way. Nice to see my 5-8 call looking legit regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, PhineasC said: The max very clearly moved south out of PA into MD/VA. True, thought they were talking about the whole system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 13 minutes ago, PhineasC said: The max very clearly moved south out of PA into MD/VA. first time the 18z euro has ever delivered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Bullish for the entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, clskinsfan said: Bullish for the entire area. Talking about bullish. The MAX map by them would be a dream!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, Snowchaser said: Talking about bullish. The MAX map by them would be a dream!! Some of that is 200% my season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: Talking about bullish. The MAX map by them would be a dream!! Some of these maps are so weird. Baltimore is on the border of 4-6/6-8 and 7 inches is a 1 in 10 chance??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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