Fozz Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 I wouldn't be surprised if someone ends up with 4"/hour rates. Even a moderate but juiced up storm can have very impressive banding. December 2013 was another one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Don’t think I have seen 4 inch per hour but I am willing to see it. But extreme moisture running into dry cold air seems like recipe for a nuclear snow bomb While we usually talk about how we fail. This is the way we go Boom in PWC. If it comes in a little faster with sick rates we could see 6-8 inches with just 4-5 hours of snow before the flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 18z RGEM snowfall through 1 PM Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 58 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: They may have been weighing the gfs/fv3 Heavily. Rgem and icon were south too. They don’t make those maps just off the NAM and euro. I figured they were. How is the ICON viewed as a model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, snowdude said: 18z RGEM snowfall through 1 PM Wednesday. Hugging that for a little while. MBY is ground zero on that. And Wonderdog’s house. Lots of houses. It’s good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Those rates on the RGEM are pretty crazy. .5/.6 of snow in 3 hours = A dumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: I figured they were. How is the ICON viewed as a model? We are probably at the Mesoscale time, Ensembles might catch something in a run but the Meso is what we are wanting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Yeah, it actually did. If I was to wager though it was more because of it's overamped bias, took the storm more north than other models did. Not qualified to say though. Sorry, you only get 2" rates. Sucks to be on the north side of the max band /s HDRPS snow output, like the CMC, is genuinely all snow. None of this is sleet/ice. Man are you in Cville? I'm near the mountains just south and west of C town, I like our chances for 6+ with this before the sleet and ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Love you guys but stop going by the snow maps. Look at precip total maps. Everyone sees snow then sleet then rain, just a matter of when and globals aren’t going to be able to pick up those minute details all that great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 The way things are trending I can see someone getting 1" qpf before the flip. Most models are in the .4-.7 range but there are a few that are starting to push that 1" mark by noon/18z. That is one heck of a slug of moisture pushing east at the right time...even some of the typical qpf stingy mesos are juiced up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 17 minutes ago, Fozz said: I wouldn't be surprised if someone ends up with 4"/hour rates. Even a moderate but juiced up storm can have very impressive banding. December 2013 was another one. yep, some of the biggies have produced up front, coming in like a wall. 93...96...00...03...though interestingly not so much with 09, 10 and 16...they took some time to get going. temps obviously help as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Those rates on the RGEM are pretty crazy. .5/.6 of snow in 3 hours = A dumping. Wouldn't surprise me if there are double digit totals where ever the bullseye is. With the firehouse pointed into the area I would expect 2 to 3" per hour rates during the morning into mid day hours. 10" + totals in a 30 to 50 mile wide area is definitely on the table Imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gefs really bumped up qpf . Mean is near 2 inch in DC . About 1.6" near Baltimore Thanks. QPF is solid. But temps are the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 minute ago, snowmagnet said: Mine too! Fairfax County looks good. Getting close to game time. Am curious for 18z Euro. Just to see where the temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Thanks. QPF is solid. But temps are the problem. Maybe for your location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 minute ago, jewell2188 said: Maybe for your location. You're gonna do great. I was up in Lucketts today and it was amazing to see the amount of tree damage especially up in the western Hills around Stumptown Rd. Different climate all together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Well, all I can say is I hope this is the absolute lowest amount of snow possible. It's the Ferrier-based SLR snow map from the 18Z NAM3, which would factor in ptype transition and thus a reduction in SLR. Think (hope?) this is a bit too much of a reduction, but it does give some pause to some of the clown maps out there that are probably overly optimistic with the high end amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Finally able to catch up in here. Question—4” an hour rates!? Where is that possible? DC? MD? And if possible, are we starting to run into some thundersnow potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: Finally able to catch up in here. Question—4” an hour rates!? Where is that possible? DC? MD? And if possible, are we starting to run into some thundersnow potential? Looks like to me that the best chance of that would be west of DC...NOVA. Maybe Warrenton to Leesburg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Scraff said: Finally able to catch up in here. Question—4” an hour rates!? Where is that possible? DC? MD? And if possible, are we starting to run into some thundersnow potential? Given the general setup, I don't see 4"/hr a possibility. However, 2"/hr is certainly doable, maybe even a touch more. 4"/hr is saved for convective stuff typically found in bombing surface lows within the deformation zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Finally able to catch up in here. Question—4” an hour rates!? Where is that possible? DC? MD? And if possible, are we starting to run into some thundersnow potential?If there are 4”/hr rates, somebody is getting thundersnow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, Scraff said: Finally able to catch up in here. Question—4” an hour rates!? Where is that possible? DC? MD? And if possible, are we starting to run into some thundersnow potential? It's not happening. Please just ignore that horribly silly post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 13 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: Maybe for your location. Talking about DC. He said 2” in DC. How much of that will be snow vs. sleet/freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 7 minutes ago, Scraff said: Finally able to catch up in here. Question—4” an hour rates!? Where is that possible? DC? MD? And if possible, are we starting to run into some thundersnow potential? No one is getting 4" inch an hour rates. That's Sierra Nevada powder keg stuff. I think the most I ever measured in an hour in my lifetime was 3 and that was once in 2010 and once in January 2011. I think Valentines Day 2015 may have came close.. but that was a frontal passage.. freak show event. In terms of banding.. Check Mappy's post above. You really dont know where the deathband(s) will set up. Banding is going to be meso and we probably wont have a handle on it until some time tomorrow night or right before game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Ok everyone. Focus. We don’t need everyone saying the same thing over and over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Even in marginal situations in the past, it seems the Ferrier ratio way under did accumulations. I think ratios will be fine in the snow part and then switch to sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 9 minutes ago, snowfan said: It's not happening. Please just ignore that horribly silly post. Hahaha. Ok. I should no better. Anyway, would just love nothing more than a few hours of heavies though. Something always magical about Jebwalking in a snow globe. Thanks everyone for the responses though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Suspect it's overdone a bit, but the icing that some of the guidance has for the mountain areas like skyline drive and west towards canaan would be crushing. Skyline Dr. has already been hit very hard this year. This would take care of the rest of the dead trees up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, Scraff said: Hahaha. Ok. I should no better. Anyway, would just love nothing more than a few hours of heavies though. Something always magical about Jebwalking in a snow globe. Thanks everyone for the responses though. What are winds going to be like? I like those 2” an hour rates with no wind. Just puking snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Are we still eventually talking rain at this point when we say “the changeover?” Or is this now a snow change to fr rain/sleet done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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