nw baltimore wx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 8:39 PM, jaydreb said: Honest question: how relevant is the current radar over TN to our storm which is 12+ hours away? Expand "Snow in Tennessee, better yet, check Kentucky, With a barometer higher than 30.35, And we do just fine." Old Howard's Almanac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 I like the 3k NAM alot for MBY. 0.4" by 15z. We lose 700s between 15 and 16z so changeover happens then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 8:28 PM, ravensrule said: It actually did great a few years ago and people loved it. Not sure when it got the bad rap. Expand It did well in 2009/2010 but we didn't realize until later that was like the easiest winter of all time for the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 8:35 PM, Deck Pic said: NAM is ok... has the DC flip sometime between 10 and 11, probably closer to 10...I like 2-3" before flip and maybe 0.5" sleet on top...on the flip side, it is a cold run, so frozen probably well into mid afternoon... Expand Yep. Check out the 18Z NAM3 Ferrier-based SLR snowmap through 16Z -- lots of 2-3" totals -- some near 4" -- here before the flip to sleet for most in the urban corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 8:50 PM, PhineasC said: It did well in 2009/2010 but we didn't realize until later that was like the easiest winter of all time for the models. Expand I'm not great with years. This is where i wish Bob was around, but didn't it do great in 2013 & 2014?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 8:36 PM, snowdude said: NONE of the models are catching on to how juiced the radar is and how far east the moisture has made it already. Mount Holly mentioned this in their discussion and I posted it earlier. Radar looks very good right now. Definitely something to keep watching in terms of snow intensity and arrival time of moisture. Expand Which means it's probably best to switch over to nowcasting, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 8:59 PM, ravensrule said: I'm not great with years. This is where i wish Bob was around, but didn't it do great in 2013 & 2014?. Expand I think there was one of those years where it nailed those March events. I am terrible with remembering snow dates too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 8:28 PM, ravensrule said: It actually did great a few years ago and people loved it. Not sure when it got the bad rap. Expand I remember the RGEM trying to give us snow the past few years when we have been on the edge- either north or south. A couple of storms were just north or south and the RGEM would give us hope.... but no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Icon wins the “most consistent model” award with this storm. Shown virtually the same potential for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 9:13 PM, MD Snow said: Icon wins the “most consistent model” award with this storm. Shown virtually the same potential for days. Expand Yeah I wish I could just lock that up. Half a foot or so with a band of ridiculously heavy snow before it flips to mixed precip. Would be a really fun event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 9:26 PM, osfan24 said: Yeah I wish I could just lock that up. Half a foot or so with a band of ridiculously heavy snow before it flips to mixed precip. Would be a really fun event. Expand I’m always super suspicious of radar trends etc but if the current radar picture holds to our south I think there is potential for the meso’s to go crazy at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 9:31 PM, MD Snow said: I’m always super suspicious of radar trends etc but if the current radar picture holds to our south I think there is potential for the meso’s to go crazy at 0z. Expand idk, I have a feeling that our dry air is going to eat a chunk out of that big-time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 9:38 PM, peribonca said: idk, I have a feeling that our dry air is going to eat a chunk out of that big-time Expand Dry air is not gonna eat much of a wide area of bright yellows and reds. It's a pretty nuts radar right now. Huge slug of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 9:41 PM, PhineasC said: Dry air is not gonna eat much of a wide area of bright yellows and reds. It's a pretty nuts radar right now. Huge slug of moisture. Expand Ha, yeah dry air is the least of our concerns. Radar is lit up like a Christmas tree with all that gulf moisture just streaming up toward us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 9:41 PM, PhineasC said: Radar is not gonna eat much of a wide area of bright yellows and reds. It's a pretty nuts radar right now. Huge slug of moisture. Expand I’d like to know if the meso’s down south were calling for the heavy storms. Interesting for sure. Radar hallucinations already underway. Not even had a beer either. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Rgem has a slightly stronger/further west hpc which keeps the corridor from flipping as fast. Shows the potential with this thing. Hpc placement, where the firehouse from the gulf ends up landing will have huge implications as to who booms and who busts. I expect models to increase snowfall slightly as we continue to get closer to game time. Based off of a further east leaf of moisture coming up from the gulf and a slightly stronger hpc to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 GFS looks better. Especially for Baltimore. More precip and colder at 1pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 9:41 PM, PhineasC said: Dry air is not gonna eat much of a wide area of bright yellows and reds. It's a pretty nuts radar right now. Huge slug of moisture. Expand Without that dry air we would have another massive rainstorm on our doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 .71 bullseye in Montgomery county and it looks before the flip to me on GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 GFS looks like a true 4-7” area wide to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 I know it's the end of the HRRR run but here's the total at 13z in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 9:51 PM, BaltimoreWxGuy said: GFS looks like a true 4-7” area wide to me Expand 18z panel looks very juicy compared to the last run. Nice improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 18z GFS is colder through 24 as said above... 18z tomorrow is much better for just about everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodbridge02 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 9:51 PM, BaltimoreWxGuy said: GFS looks like a true 4-7” area wide to me Expand What "area"? Kuchera gives me like 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 9:52 PM, Fozz said: 18z panel looks very juicy compared to the last run. Nice improvement. Expand I’m using the 3 hour panels on EWALL. It’s surely an improvement in terms of Precip and 850s anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Seems like it stepped back in Nova and on precip as well. Icing looks bad further North and west - Prefer snow and not ice so I would be OK with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 9:54 PM, Woodbridge02 said: What "area"? Kuchera gives me like 2-3" Expand I guess it’s perspective. To me it looks better for DC-North which is probably a good 70% of this forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Ok, shutting down this thread. Game time weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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