Maestrobjwa Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 6:04 PM, LP08 said: Better than 0z, slightly drier than 6z. Still a general 2-4 before flip. Expand Kinda feel like the forecast for the cities oughta be for 2-4" with a boom scenario of 4-6"...but that's just my untrained opinion, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 6:01 PM, feloniousq said: We have this discussion a fair amount, but the expected/low/high graphics packages just make no sense. Leesburg's "expected" is 6-8 but the "high end" (10%) is 7? Expand Yeah I mentioned this last night. It's changed now, but previously they had Baltimore on the border of 4-6/6-8 with a top end of 7. Made literally no sense. How can the 1 in 10 chance be so close or include the forecasted range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Ok people. Lets not derail the thread with LWX snow map complaints. model disco only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 6:06 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Kinda feel like the forecast for the cities oughta be for 2-4" with a boom scenario of 4-6"...but that's just my untrained opinion, lol Expand I agree with this, but LWX has been good this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Euro map anyone? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 It may not mean much for us in the DC area, but the radar is blossoming and very impressive In the South at the moment. Looks very dymamic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 6:16 PM, psuhoffman said: Expand Not much different. HRRR has a smaller precip field at 05z at the WVA and VA border. Not as expansive as it was in earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 6:17 PM, SnowGolfBro said: It may not mean much for us in the DC area, but the radar is blossoming and very impressive In the South at the moment. Looks very dymamic. Expand I think part of the problem is, that real heavy stuff just isn’t going to be aimed at us...it’s gonna go into the Ohio valley and west PA. If it was aimed at us it’d be a big time snow storm, that stuff may rob some of the heavy moisture to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 IMO the euro would have been a very good run...except the DC area kind of got stuck in between bands. A really nice initial wave went to the south in the early morning and then the second wave went just to the north. It's possible it goes down that way...or that initial wave holds together more and you don't see that dead zone in between with 1-2" less. I don't trust any of the guidance to nail that kind of detail even at 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 FWIW EURO Kuchera map looks much better for central VA. 00Z 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 6:24 PM, psuhoffman said: IMO the euro would have been a very good run...except the DC area kind of got stuck in between bands. A really nice initial wave went to the south in the early morning and then the second wave went just to the north. It's possible it goes down that way...or that initial wave holds together more and you don't see that dead zone in between with 1-2" less. I don't trust any of the guidance to nail that kind of detail even at 24 hours. Expand It looks pretty good for us. If it goes down exactly as the Euro shows i would be happy. 5" of snow and sleet followed by some ZR is good by me. Congrats on the black ops moderator tag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 6:24 PM, psuhoffman said: IMO the euro would have been a very good run...except the DC area kind of got stuck in between bands. A really nice initial wave went to the south in the early morning and then the second wave went just to the north. It's possible it goes down that way...or that initial wave holds together more and you don't see that dead zone in between with 1-2" less. I don't trust any of the guidance to nail that kind of detail even at 24 hours. Expand Agreed. What was noticeable is it starts earlier (between 3am/4am now) and still goes till about 11am before switch over. It also gets DC into better rates a little earlier than the 0z run. Like someone else said, improvement from 0z but not as good as 06z. It'll come down to banding features which global models just won't pick up on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 6:30 PM, Joshfsu123 said: Agreed. What was noticeable is it starts earlier (between 3am/4am now) and still goes till about 11am before switch over. It also gets DC into better rates a little earlier than the 0z run. Like someone else said, improvement from 0z but not as good as 06z. It'll come down to banding features which global models just won't pick up on. Expand A 1" change in an op run at a specific location is noise. The Euro has been showing the same general idea for many runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 6:33 PM, psuhoffman said: A 1" change in an op run at a specific location is noise. The Euro has been showing the same general idea for many runs now. Expand Agree. It’s just windshield wipering the best banding around by a few 10s of miles. I’d say euro is maybe a nudge toward a widespread 3-5” with the unlucky spot between bands more like 2-3” and the jackpot more like 5-7”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 no new posts in an hour? storm cancel? where am I? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 7:41 PM, mappy said: no new posts in an hour? storm cancel? where am I? Expand How about some weenie radar hallucinations? The thunderstorm near Atlanta looks prime for tracking in our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 7:41 PM, mappy said: no new posts in an hour? storm cancel? where am I? Expand Exactly -- I kept refreshing thinking maybe the site was messed up. Maybe the weenie LR thread sucked everyone in.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 7:45 PM, BaltimoreWxGuy said: How about some weenie radar hallucinations? The thunderstorm near Atlanta looks prime for tracking in our area Expand The convection is going to rob our moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 7:45 PM, BaltimoreWxGuy said: How about some weenie radar hallucinations? The thunderstorm near Atlanta looks prime for tracking in our area Expand Looks like it will be a hot snow, always AO+ with big -SOI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 7:45 PM, BaltimoreWxGuy said: How about some weenie radar hallucinations? The thunderstorm near Atlanta looks prime for tracking in our area Expand Makes the RGEM and HRDPS a little more believable imo. Someone between nova dc and southern pa is gonna end up with some crazy rates in the morning at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Current radar seems faster and more robust vs 12K NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Looks like LWX chopped snow totals down for Montgomery/Howard/Baltimore counties...trending toward a nonevent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 LWX trimming totals north and west.... EDIT and ninja'd by Eskimo Joe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 This double band situation is becoming more real. 18z Nam shows it too. Of course right across mby and DC area get screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 18z 12k NAM is the best run for CHO I've seen all day. Looks like the band dies out before hitting DCA though. Still looks to be a very wintry run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Correct map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 8:04 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Looks like LWX chopped snow totals down for Montgomery/Howard/Baltimore counties...trending toward a nonevent. Expand On 2/19/2019 at 8:05 PM, MountainGeek said: LWX trimming totals north and west.... EDIT and ninja'd by Eskimo Joe Expand anyone east of 95 who thought they were seeing 6-8 were crazy anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 8:06 PM, NorthArlington101 said: 18z 12k NAM is the best run for CHO I've seen all day. Looks like the band dies out before hitting DCA though. Still looks to be a very wintry run. Expand Still looks like .2-.3 in dc area as snow so fits the general 1-3/2-4 theme of today (except the Canadian models). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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