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February 23-25th Winter Storm

MNstorms

By MNstorms,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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ConvectiveIA

ConvectiveIA

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, AppsRunner said:

All snow now and cement parking lot covered. 

Light covering on some paved surfaces downtown. Bottom edge looks to be lifting north out of town but it’s not that easy as the passage of the low has the movement of the precip shield sort of pivoting. I could see this easily filling back in for us but it’s hard to say 

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josh_4184

josh_4184

Posted
Posted

APX issued first blizzard warning for my area in 10 years, kind of surprised it has been that long.  Looking at 6-8" plus 55mph winds should be pretty intense tomorrow. Hopefully the freezing rain tonight wont amount to much, power outages could become a serious issue. 

Quote 

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

...Blizzard conditions Sunday through Sunday night...

High Impact Weather Potential: Snow, heavy at times, along with very
strong winds leading to blizzard conditions and dangerous travel
Sunday into Monday morning.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Little change in large-scale thinking
from 24 hours ago as focus remains largely around the Sunday through
Sunday night time frame. Mid-level cutoff, negatively tilted wave
and attendant surface low pressure across the central plains this
afternoon will rapidly deepen while trekking northeast toward the
Great Lakes tonight. The progged ~970-975 mb low pressure as it
crosses eastern upper MI/Straits Sunday afternoon falls outside of
the NAEFS/GEFS climate return interval since 1979 and some 4-5 SD
below the mean...in short, this is something quite rare across
northern Michigan for mid-February, to say the least.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Transition to all snow Sunday
morning-midday, along with increasingly strong winds leading to
blizzard conditions and sporadic power outages.

By early Sunday morning, ~979 mb low pressure is expected to be
situated across northern Lake Michigan, gradually trekking northward
and continuing to deepen toward 970 mb through the remainder of
the morning hours. The system`s cold front is expected to be
crossing the forecast area from west to east through this time
frame aiding to spill cooler temperatures back into northern
Michigan. An impressive pressure gradient on the backside of the
system will result in increasing winds throughout the day on
Sunday, becoming west-northwesterly sustained between 25-40 mph
area-wide by early afternoon into the evening hours all while
frequent gusts vary from 50-60 mph during this same time frame.
Winds ever so slowly begin to relax Sunday night into early Monday
morning; however, will continue to remain problematic as gusts
range from 25-35 mph by the Monday morning commute.

In addition to very strong winds will be a transition from a
rain/freezing rain/snow mix to all snow Sunday morning.
Falling/blowing snow, potentially heavy in places downwind of Lake
Michigan/Superior, will be the rule throughout the day into early
Monday morning. Forecast soundings continue to prog inversion
heights around 9-10 kft with omega pegged directly in a deepening
DGZ, sufficient synoptic moisture/support above the inversion and
unidirectional west-northwest boundary layer winds lending support to
dominant banding and pockets of heavy snow. Do expect aforementioned
strong winds to have little trouble carrying lake effect/enhanced
snow further south/east than would normally be the case...including
along and east of M-33 in northeast lower. Accumulations remain
somewhat tricky, especially given such strong winds and the
potential for dendrites to shred apart before reaching the ground.
None the less, will continue to gradually bump accumulations up
across the typical snow belts of northwest lower and eastern upper
where 3-6 inches of new snow is expected, perhaps a few localized
amounts up to 8 inches. Lesser amounts of 1-3 inches expected
outside of the snow belts (lowest from near Alpena to Saginaw Bay
with an inch or less expected).

Impacts: No way around it - all of northern Michigan will be nasty
Sunday through Sunday night. Whether there`s one inch of
accumulation or 8 inches, very strong winds combined with falling
snow (locally heavy) will lead to blowing/drifting snow and very low
visibility. Blizzard conditions are expected, especially Sunday
afternoon through the first half of Sunday night. Travel will be
dangerous and is strongly discouraged. Sporadic power outages are
likely. **Have issued a blizzard warning for the majority of the
forecast area given the concerns mentioned above, plus a healthy
snow pack across the region, which may be dampened a bit due to rain
tonight (but we`ve seen plenty of cases in the past where rain does
not limit blowing snow of a preexisting snow pack as much as one
would think in high wind situations such as this). The exception to
the blizzard warning is the ongoing winter storm warning with an
icing threat mentioned in the prior section and a high wind
warning from Alpena southward to Gladwin County, mainly due to a
lack of expected new snowfall in those areas. Certainly will still
be some blowing snow in those areas, but not expected to be the
extent as elsewhere to their west.**

Some quick research regarding blizzard warnings issued by APX: Aside
from the Chippewa County blizzard warning issued earlier this month,
these will be the first issued since 2012 when coastal Lake MI
counties were under a blizzard warning. Have to go back to 2008 to
find the last warning for interior counties. So again, this is some
pretty rare territory despite the abundance of winter weather that
occurs in northern Michigan.

 

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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted

Over 1.5" of rain now.  The dry slot is just about here, so the precip should be mostly over now, with maybe some drizzle and flurries later on.  There is a tremendous amount of standing water around.  Probably the most I can remember.  Farm fields, front yards, ditches, and even side streets from storm drains blocked by snow piles.  There's still about 4" of dense snow pack left.  Temps will crash well below freezing later tonight, and continue to drop through tomorrow/tomorrow night, so there's going to be a lot of thick ice sheets all over the landscape.

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Jackstraw

Jackstraw

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Over 1.5" of rain now.  The dry slot is just about here, so the precip should be mostly over now, with maybe some drizzle and flurries later on.  There is a tremendous amount of standing water around.  Probably the most I can remember.  Farm fields, front yards, ditches, and even side streets from storm drains blocked by snow piles.  There's still about 4" of dense snow pack left.  Temps will crash well below freezing later tonight, and continue to drop through tomorrow/tomorrow night, so there's going to be a lot of thick ice sheets all over the landscape.

Welcome to my world (- snowpack of course) lol :tomato:

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AppsRunner

AppsRunner

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I just checked the radar and noticed the yellow band parked over Ames.  The ISU webcam looks pretty good.  There's a brand new report from a NWS employee in Ames of 3.6".

Yeah, a 4.1" report came in at 10 and it's been heavy snow since then. Winds have picked up here in the last couple hours, and we're now consistently gusting to about 40mph. Some stations to the NW were up near 50-55mph. Ames really got lucky with this storm as that band pivoted over. It was definitely some of the heaviest snow I've seen living in Iowa/Ohio.  Hopefully we'll make it to 6-8" from this. 

On another note, this storm should get DSM to a new all-time record snowiest February. It's been a remarkable run here since mid January. 

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RogueWaves

RogueWaves

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, Hoosier said:

GRR comments on the rarity of such a deep storm.  These 3 examples were all in November though.

  


Rapid cyclogenesis will occur late today through Sunday as a
998 mb sfc low currently over southeastern Kansas strengthens to
around 972 mb in a position between Sault St Marie and James Bay
early Sunday evening. As noted by our previous shift this strong
of a sfc low will rival the historic fall storms like the 1998
storm, the Fitzgerald storm of 1975 and the Armistice Day storm of
1940.

With some models taking it down to 966 mb, perhaps an even better November bomb analog would be the Nov '89 blizzard. That one bottomed at 964 mb near the southern end of James Bay

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RogueWaves

RogueWaves

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Raging blizzard conditions now in central NE will move across nw IA into se MN and nw WI, u.p. of MI should have a blizzard warning too, at least west of MQT to IWD. Potential for 24-36 inch snowfalls in lake enhanced flows, 50-60 mph wind gusts, single digit temps, if that's not a blizzard then what is? 

This is a wound-up system with a lot of energy. Low is just northwest of TOP at this point. 

Not to mention an existing deep snow pack which always amplifies effects. Totally baffled that no parts of Yooper-land are under a bliz warning. 

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weatherbo

weatherbo

Posted
Posted

Over 8" of intense snow since about 3 this morning, combined with yesterdays 4", already sitting at a foot of new snow with another foot to fall.  I have to assume the depth is somewhere around 65".  I did see an official co-op depth about 20 miles sw of here at 60" this morning.

MQT- 11.7" since 7 am yesterday.  

0700 AM     SNOW             4 NE NEGAUNEE           46.53N 87.55W
02/24/2019  M8.0 INCH        MARQUETTE          MI   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            UPDATED TOTAL SINCE 230 AM. LIQUID
            EQUIVALENT IS 0.93 INCHES. SNOW DEPTH IS 53
            INCHES. STILL SNOWING, THOUGH INTENSITY HAS
            DIMINISHED TO MODERATE SNOW.
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weatherbo

weatherbo

Posted
Posted

Upgraded to a blizzard warning... Feb '15 was my last one.

Baraga-Marquette- Including the cities of L`Anse, Gwinn, and Marquette 747 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions developing late this morning and continuing into this evening. Additional snow accumulations of 10 to 17 inches,  except 5 to 8 inches near Skandia and Marquette and 2 to 4 inches south of Gwinn. Northwest winds will gust as high as 55 mph this afternoon and evening.

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weatherbo

weatherbo

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, (((Will))) said:

Gusting 35-40mph up here already.

 

I wish so bad I could get out and look around town but I'm stuck at home...nothing is plowed. I haven't seen a single car go by.

Kinda starting to gust here a bit more. Not a single vehicle down my road since sometimes early evening. Before this is all over, I might be approaching 95-100” in 24 days. I love it

can tell by radar, enhancement is picking up

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