Baum Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 24 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: 18z NAMs came in way south/east, with surface low tracking over Chicago area. 3km is even farther south than 12km. Both show a rain/thunder to heavy snow and wind scenario for northern Illinois. Only run that's shown this so we'll see if it's a one off. Would certainly fit the idea of the low coming in farther south. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk When was the last time a storm didn't track over us? Hoping this is the last(if it in fact does), and we get some that are a bit more suppressed to give us a few late season snow events before spring is sprung. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Winter Storm Watches for west and central lower Michigan. Was surprised by the issuance of the watch itself, but then especially by the condition of "Up to 3"" of snow, which would usually warrant a winter weather advisory if any headline at all. The very strong winds/near whiteout conditions are probably the deciding factors here. ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...High winds are forecasted to combine with occasional snow and falling temperatures to potentially lead to widespread impacts for the area. Westerly winds could gust over 60 mph. Blowing snow could potentially lead to near whiteout conditions. Accumulations of up to 3 inches are possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west central Michigan. * WHEN...From Sunday morning through late Sunday night. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...An increased risk for tree damage and widespread power outages exists with this storm. Plan on difficult travel due to poor visibilities...slick roads and high winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nickysixes Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 34 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: 18z NAMs came in way south/east, with surface low tracking over Chicago area. 3km is even farther south than 12km. Both show a rain/thunder to heavy snow and wind scenario for northern Illinois. Only run that's shown this so we'll see if it's a one off. Would certainly fit the idea of the low coming in farther south. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk A trend hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nickysixes Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 3 hours ago, (((Will))) said: Snow depth up here is getting extreme. Probably have 55-60+ inches of snow cover right now. Don't know how accurate this is but.....whoa:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 The areas that will get hammered even more by high winds are the eastern sides of the lakes. I'm looking at the Buffalo area in particular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 When was the last time a storm didn't track over us? Hoping this is the last(if it in fact does), and we get some that are a bit more suppressed to give us a few late season snow events before spring is sprung.I have my eye on Tuesday-Tuesday night for fronto snow. GFS has been consistently more north, favoring WI, but 12z GEM was nice for northern IL. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nickysixes Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 1 hour ago, (((Will))) said: Oh, wait, is that map showing snow cover or YTD? Quebec City would be entirely dismissed if they had 100+ inches of snow cover, lol. Current snow cover "allegedly". I know parts of Maine are 4'+ but the 103" at Quebec City seems off me thinks:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maneee Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 I'd post pictures but I'm on my phone. This really is starting to look like a big ice maker for a large portion of WI. Windy as well-- this may be really bad for quite of a lot of you north of chicago-- unless it ticks south some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: The areas that will get hammered even more by high winds are the eastern sides of the lakes. I'm looking at the Buffalo area in particular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 2 hours ago, Nickysixes said: Don't know how accurate this is but.....whoa:) That’s likely in CM. They use the correct system up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 26 minutes ago, Maneee said: I'd post pictures but I'm on my phone. This really is starting to look like a big ice maker for a large portion of WI. Windy as well-- this may be really bad for quite of a lot of you north of chicago-- unless it ticks south some more. Uhh i'm good with having no ice thank you very much. Edit: Also Woo! Over 200 posts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterStorm294 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 The 12z Euro had widespread 55-60mph gusts in SMI and into northern IN/OH, which was a solid uptick from the 00z. High winds are fun but i'm not looking forward to a potential power outage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Storm is looking less and less appealing. SLR's as low as 8:1 with the possibility of mixing even being mentioned. I'd prefer a fluffier 15-18:1 type snow. After clearing and shoveling 75+ inches in three weeks, I'm pooped. I am, however, looking forward to the possible blizzard conditions following. New generator just waiting Guess I need to get some extensions like MQT added the their snow stakes. Mine is measuring 56", so should easily go back over 5' again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maneee Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 1 hour ago, Geoboy645 said: Uhh i'm good with having no ice thank you very much. Edit: Also Woo! Over 200 posts! Yeah I think you and the rest of the world are certainly in agreement there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 A lot of people are going to get nothing from this storm other than wind. One or two people on this sub are going to get a blizzard. Do you feel lucky? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 00z NAM still looking like it will run on the weaker/southeast side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, AppsRunner said: A lot of people are going to get nothing from this storm other than wind. One or two people on this sub are going to get a blizzard. Do you feel lucky? Agreed. Dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 The hires nam legit drops 6" of snow in an hour with this band. I don't think I've ever seen that even modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Yea 0z nam develops the low slowly. Doesn't really deepen rapidly till it gets to eastern GL. Weird run. Wonder if we will see this system trend south and weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Haven’t looked at too many soundings but the 3kNAM does have a MAUL in the trowal and some ridiculous rates. Some of the model output seems very unrealistic. The NAM and even the Euro/GFS are forecasting nearly impossible rates. The Euro has 1” of QPF falling in 6 hours, and the NAM more. Even the GFS/FV3 have high QPF amounts in that band. It’s going to be absolutely fascinating to watch unfold. I might end up taking a drive out if its within a couple counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 0z CMC sided with the GFS with a HUGE shift west. Also, the 0z NAM 3k has thunderstorms in eastern and central Iowa early Saturday morning, the heaviest in the above freezing zone. Makes me a bit nervous because if I get a quarter inch of ice (which is unlikely), it likely won't melt totally before the winds hit on Saturday evening (power outages). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 36 minutes ago, AppsRunner said: Haven’t looked at too many soundings but the 3kNAM does have a MAUL in the trowal and some ridiculous rates. Some of the model output seems very unrealistic. The NAM and even the Euro/GFS are forecasting nearly impossible rates. The Euro has 1” of QPF falling in 6 hours, and the NAM more. Even the GFS/FV3 have high QPF amounts in that band. It’s going to be absolutely fascinating to watch unfold. I might end up taking a drive out if its within a couple counties. I wouldn't say unrealistic. What they are showing is really no different than what you see in a bombing East Coast storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 GRR actually issued a winter storm watch for 65mph wind and rain haha. I do believe I am living in the twilight zone right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 3 hours ago, AppsRunner said: A lot of people are going to get nothing from this storm other than wind. One or two people on this sub are going to get a blizzard. Do you feel lucky? Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Never much fun being in the middle of a system like this, with snows well west, and appreciable convection well southeast. Interesting system, but looks like a windy, cold rainer followed by dry slot for most of the DVN cwa. Hope we can get a boomer with some elevated 'vection before dry slot hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 woo hoo! Winter storm watch posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 7 hours ago, Harry Perry said: GRR actually issued a winter storm watch for 65mph wind and rain haha. I do believe I am living in the twilight zone right now. Yeah. This seems odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 33 minutes ago, weatherbo said: woo hoo! Winter storm watch posted. How much on the ground then? 90"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 1 hour ago, Baum said: Yeah. This seems odd. 3" of snow with 60mph winds is absolutely worthy of a wsw. 7" of snow with 70mph during the '78 blizz was WAY more disruptive for us than the 22" storm we had in '08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted February 22, 2019 Author Share Posted February 22, 2019 NAM now following the NW trend with the GFS and CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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