Roon Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, Minnesota_storms said: MPX AFD: No no no - its quite clearly a myth and those guys at NOAA don't know what they are talking about. Its all about the big river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 8 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: Wouldn't be too surprised if it bumped more southeast, seems like a majority of the decent surface lows this winter have ended up southeast of the medium range operational model consensus. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Even if it shifts further SE the WAA seems to just bring the possibility of ice into the LOT area moreso than snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted February 20, 2019 Author Share Posted February 20, 2019 NAM a bit south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roon Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Just now, Baum said: to debate an aspect of a discussion it is best to be cognizant of the point the person your debating is trying to make. In this case the term "big river" was in fact pointing out that systems since mid January in fact have had a tendency to put on the left turn signal at the Mississippi river. I used that geographical marker as a rough estimate. By no means was I stating it had an impact on the movement or aspect of the storm. I was in fa Noted - Short smart ass comments do about as much good as facepalm emoji's I would suggest :). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Just now, Roon said: Noted - Short smart ass comments do about as much good as facepalm emoji's I would suggest :). Mission to control, we got 'em Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roon Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 All of that being said - both GFS and the V3 are starting to come back West a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Even if it shifts further SE the WAA seems to just bring the possibility of ice into the LOT area moreso than snow.Comment I made wasn't about expecting more of a snow threat anywhere in CWA on the front end of the system, need very significant changes for that to happen. Wouldn't be surprised if it verifies weaker on approach and thus tracks more overhead before strengthening vs. cutting to our west. A majority of 00z European ensemble members had the low tracking over northern Illinois. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 The NAM is a fun model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 1 hour ago, AppsRunner said: The NAM is a fun model. Did you order some vertical lift, a year's supply just arrived! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted February 20, 2019 Author Share Posted February 20, 2019 One narrow but heavy band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Yeah so I'm going to go ahead and say that Ames is not going to see 17.3" of snow in 6 hours (and it's still snowing). But I can dream, right? Most of the models point to someone between Sioux Falls and Davenport having a lot of fun in a blizzard, but it's likely to be an extremely narrow corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 5 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: Comment I made wasn't about expecting more of a snow threat anywhere in CWA on the front end of the system, need very significant changes for that to happen. Wouldn't be surprised if it verifies weaker on approach and thus tracks more overhead before strengthening vs. cutting to our west. A majority of 00z European ensemble members had the low tracking over northern Illinois. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk I've conceded the possibility of significant wintry weather with this one. Might as well go for the quicker strengthening (which would likely take it farther nw) to maximize the wind potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 On 2/18/2019 at 11:15 AM, AppsRunner said: No matter where it tracks, it seems like this is going to be a big one somewhere. The GFS seems to be on the west end of guidance, and the Canadian on the east. Should be an interesting one to track, but I wouldn't get invested until we're much closer. 18z NAM drives a narrow band is very heavy snow right through us but for it to verify at this point is unlikely due to long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEiowaWX Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 0z nam continuing the east trend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, SEiowaWX said: 0z nam continuing the east trend... Was just gonna mention that. This system looks very thread-the-needle like, but those in that narrow jackpot zone should have some fun times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 1 hour ago, SEiowaWX said: 0z nam continuing the east trend... The way the last month has gone I wouldn't be surprised if this what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 odd. It makes a sharp left at the big river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 12Z NAM bumping back west, with the heavy snow band lining up through Waterloo and La Crosse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 56 minutes ago, madwx said: 12Z NAM bumping back west, with the heavy snow band lining up through Waterloo and La Crosse. NAM will whip back and forth every run with that narrow band like an unattended firehose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted February 21, 2019 Author Share Posted February 21, 2019 CMC went north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 This might be the last cutter for a bit.Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Potential for high wind will need to be watched even in areas that do not see any significant snow. 70kts at 850mb with strong CAA taking place. Assuming that mixes down relatively well, could easily see gusts over 60 and maybe even 70mph. Impressive. I know using 925 is ideal for trying to determine wind gust potential, but that is a paid product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 51 minutes ago, hlcater said: Potential for high wind will need to be watched even in areas that do not see any significant snow. 70kts at 850mb with strong CAA taking place. Assuming that mixes down relatively well, could easily see gusts over 60 and maybe even 70mph. Impressive. I know using 925 is ideal for trying to determine wind gust potential, but that is a paid product. I am digging the wind potential. Almost everything looks to be lining up favorably. Many areas could have a period of warning criteria winds surrounded by a longer duration of advisory level winds. Also something to think about is that whatever has been loosened up/weakened by the ice storm(s) may get knocked down easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 I am digging the wind potential. Almost everything looks to be lining up favorably. Many areas could have a period of warning criteria winds surrounded by a longer duration of advisory level winds. Also something to think about is that whatever has been loosened up/weakened by the ice storm(s) may get knocked down easier. I've had enough landscape damage.Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Worrying about your landscape is what boring people do.Your right. I prefer boring. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 24 minutes ago, (((Will))) said: Worrying about your landscape is what boring people do. From microburst this September in my neighbors yard.Good times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 From microburst this September in my neighbors yard.Good timesThat 6" heavy wet snowstorm post Thanksgiving caused about 3K worth of damage in my yard. I love the landscape in my yard between the arborvitaes,pines, hostas etc. So 40-50 mph winds are not something I cherish. Was glad the ice storm last week didn't really cause much damage. I still recall driving through Kentucky after thier ice storm. (((Will))) can have it all.Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maneee Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 I might finally get my high wind warning lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Exactly.Not a fan of high winds and tree damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 18z NAMs came in way south/east, with surface low tracking over Chicago area. 3km is even farther south than 12km. Both show a rain/thunder to heavy snow and wind scenario for northern Illinois. Only run that's shown this so we'll see if it's a one off. Would certainly fit the idea of the low coming in farther south. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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