ConvectiveIA Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Looks like DSM is being dry slotted now, if this structure could be called a dry slot. A few inches is advertised by models here, but that’s not going to happen if precipitation doesn’t fill back in as the low comes through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 I’ve been added to the blizzard warning, though still only looking at a few inches. Starting to mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 All snow now and cement parking lot covered. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Supposedly reports of 5+ inches already where I'm at. It started snowing about 3 hours ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 8 minutes ago, AppsRunner said: All snow now and cement parking lot covered. Light covering on some paved surfaces downtown. Bottom edge looks to be lifting north out of town but it’s not that easy as the passage of the low has the movement of the precip shield sort of pivoting. I could see this easily filling back in for us but it’s hard to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Nice severe-warned elevated supercell passing just to the east right now. Had a few more nice downpours earlier this eve to bring us up over 1.25" for the event. High winds look to hit around 2-3am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 APX issued first blizzard warning for my area in 10 years, kind of surprised it has been that long. Looking at 6-8" plus 55mph winds should be pretty intense tomorrow. Hopefully the freezing rain tonight wont amount to much, power outages could become a serious issue. Quote .SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 305 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 ...Blizzard conditions Sunday through Sunday night... High Impact Weather Potential: Snow, heavy at times, along with very strong winds leading to blizzard conditions and dangerous travel Sunday into Monday morning. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Little change in large-scale thinking from 24 hours ago as focus remains largely around the Sunday through Sunday night time frame. Mid-level cutoff, negatively tilted wave and attendant surface low pressure across the central plains this afternoon will rapidly deepen while trekking northeast toward the Great Lakes tonight. The progged ~970-975 mb low pressure as it crosses eastern upper MI/Straits Sunday afternoon falls outside of the NAEFS/GEFS climate return interval since 1979 and some 4-5 SD below the mean...in short, this is something quite rare across northern Michigan for mid-February, to say the least. Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Transition to all snow Sunday morning-midday, along with increasingly strong winds leading to blizzard conditions and sporadic power outages. By early Sunday morning, ~979 mb low pressure is expected to be situated across northern Lake Michigan, gradually trekking northward and continuing to deepen toward 970 mb through the remainder of the morning hours. The system`s cold front is expected to be crossing the forecast area from west to east through this time frame aiding to spill cooler temperatures back into northern Michigan. An impressive pressure gradient on the backside of the system will result in increasing winds throughout the day on Sunday, becoming west-northwesterly sustained between 25-40 mph area-wide by early afternoon into the evening hours all while frequent gusts vary from 50-60 mph during this same time frame. Winds ever so slowly begin to relax Sunday night into early Monday morning; however, will continue to remain problematic as gusts range from 25-35 mph by the Monday morning commute. In addition to very strong winds will be a transition from a rain/freezing rain/snow mix to all snow Sunday morning. Falling/blowing snow, potentially heavy in places downwind of Lake Michigan/Superior, will be the rule throughout the day into early Monday morning. Forecast soundings continue to prog inversion heights around 9-10 kft with omega pegged directly in a deepening DGZ, sufficient synoptic moisture/support above the inversion and unidirectional west-northwest boundary layer winds lending support to dominant banding and pockets of heavy snow. Do expect aforementioned strong winds to have little trouble carrying lake effect/enhanced snow further south/east than would normally be the case...including along and east of M-33 in northeast lower. Accumulations remain somewhat tricky, especially given such strong winds and the potential for dendrites to shred apart before reaching the ground. None the less, will continue to gradually bump accumulations up across the typical snow belts of northwest lower and eastern upper where 3-6 inches of new snow is expected, perhaps a few localized amounts up to 8 inches. Lesser amounts of 1-3 inches expected outside of the snow belts (lowest from near Alpena to Saginaw Bay with an inch or less expected). Impacts: No way around it - all of northern Michigan will be nasty Sunday through Sunday night. Whether there`s one inch of accumulation or 8 inches, very strong winds combined with falling snow (locally heavy) will lead to blowing/drifting snow and very low visibility. Blizzard conditions are expected, especially Sunday afternoon through the first half of Sunday night. Travel will be dangerous and is strongly discouraged. Sporadic power outages are likely. **Have issued a blizzard warning for the majority of the forecast area given the concerns mentioned above, plus a healthy snow pack across the region, which may be dampened a bit due to rain tonight (but we`ve seen plenty of cases in the past where rain does not limit blowing snow of a preexisting snow pack as much as one would think in high wind situations such as this). The exception to the blizzard warning is the ongoing winter storm warning with an icing threat mentioned in the prior section and a high wind warning from Alpena southward to Gladwin County, mainly due to a lack of expected new snowfall in those areas. Certainly will still be some blowing snow in those areas, but not expected to be the extent as elsewhere to their west.** Some quick research regarding blizzard warnings issued by APX: Aside from the Chippewa County blizzard warning issued earlier this month, these will be the first issued since 2012 when coastal Lake MI counties were under a blizzard warning. Have to go back to 2008 to find the last warning for interior counties. So again, this is some pretty rare territory despite the abundance of winter weather that occurs in northern Michigan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Barely missed the dry slot, slowly but steadily picking up in intensity. Probably have an inch or two so far, hard to tell. Winds will start kicking in in a few hours. Looking forward to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Over 1.5" of rain now. The dry slot is just about here, so the precip should be mostly over now, with maybe some drizzle and flurries later on. There is a tremendous amount of standing water around. Probably the most I can remember. Farm fields, front yards, ditches, and even side streets from storm drains blocked by snow piles. There's still about 4" of dense snow pack left. Temps will crash well below freezing later tonight, and continue to drop through tomorrow/tomorrow night, so there's going to be a lot of thick ice sheets all over the landscape. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 11 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Over 1.5" of rain now. The dry slot is just about here, so the precip should be mostly over now, with maybe some drizzle and flurries later on. There is a tremendous amount of standing water around. Probably the most I can remember. Farm fields, front yards, ditches, and even side streets from storm drains blocked by snow piles. There's still about 4" of dense snow pack left. Temps will crash well below freezing later tonight, and continue to drop through tomorrow/tomorrow night, so there's going to be a lot of thick ice sheets all over the landscape. Welcome to my world (- snowpack of course) lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Very heavy snow in this band with excellent dendrites . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 4 minutes ago, AppsRunner said: Very heavy snow in this band with excellent dendrites . I just checked the radar and noticed the yellow band parked over Ames. The ISU webcam looks pretty good. There's a brand new report from a NWS employee in Ames of 3.6". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Skiing down in Welch Village 10 miles SW of Red Wing MN, heavy snow when we left with the wind quickly picking up, and stacking fast. 30 miles north in Minneapolis just barely some flurries atm. Cutoff is going to be crazy sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Haven't experienced a blizzard like this since the December 2009 one in Des Moines. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted February 24, 2019 Author Share Posted February 24, 2019 I90 in Minnesota and highways south are closed. A few hours ago there was thundersnow in some location with 50DBZ rates. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said: I just checked the radar and noticed the yellow band parked over Ames. The ISU webcam looks pretty good. There's a brand new report from a NWS employee in Ames of 3.6". Yeah, a 4.1" report came in at 10 and it's been heavy snow since then. Winds have picked up here in the last couple hours, and we're now consistently gusting to about 40mph. Some stations to the NW were up near 50-55mph. Ames really got lucky with this storm as that band pivoted over. It was definitely some of the heaviest snow I've seen living in Iowa/Ohio. Hopefully we'll make it to 6-8" from this. On another note, this storm should get DSM to a new all-time record snowiest February. It's been a remarkable run here since mid January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 My rain total is 1.42". Needless to say, our deep snowpack is no longer fluffy and picturesque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 10 hours ago, Hoosier said: GRR comments on the rarity of such a deep storm. These 3 examples were all in November though. Rapid cyclogenesis will occur late today through Sunday as a 998 mb sfc low currently over southeastern Kansas strengthens to around 972 mb in a position between Sault St Marie and James Bay early Sunday evening. As noted by our previous shift this strong of a sfc low will rival the historic fall storms like the 1998 storm, the Fitzgerald storm of 1975 and the Armistice Day storm of 1940. With some models taking it down to 966 mb, perhaps an even better November bomb analog would be the Nov '89 blizzard. That one bottomed at 964 mb near the southern end of James Bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 10 hours ago, Roger Smith said: Raging blizzard conditions now in central NE will move across nw IA into se MN and nw WI, u.p. of MI should have a blizzard warning too, at least west of MQT to IWD. Potential for 24-36 inch snowfalls in lake enhanced flows, 50-60 mph wind gusts, single digit temps, if that's not a blizzard then what is? This is a wound-up system with a lot of energy. Low is just northwest of TOP at this point. Not to mention an existing deep snow pack which always amplifies effects. Totally baffled that no parts of Yooper-land are under a bliz warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 1 hour ago, AppsRunner said: On another note, this storm should get DSM to a new all-time record snowiest February. It's been a remarkable run here since mid January. Confirmed https://twitter.com/NWSDesMoines/status/1099555523010195462?s=09 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Over 8" of intense snow since about 3 this morning, combined with yesterdays 4", already sitting at a foot of new snow with another foot to fall. I have to assume the depth is somewhere around 65". I did see an official co-op depth about 20 miles sw of here at 60" this morning. MQT- 11.7" since 7 am yesterday. 0700 AM SNOW 4 NE NEGAUNEE 46.53N 87.55W 02/24/2019 M8.0 INCH MARQUETTE MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS UPDATED TOTAL SINCE 230 AM. LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS 0.93 INCHES. SNOW DEPTH IS 53 INCHES. STILL SNOWING, THOUGH INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED TO MODERATE SNOW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Upgraded to a blizzard warning... Feb '15 was my last one. Baraga-Marquette- Including the cities of L`Anse, Gwinn, and Marquette 747 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions developing late this morning and continuing into this evening. Additional snow accumulations of 10 to 17 inches, except 5 to 8 inches near Skandia and Marquette and 2 to 4 inches south of Gwinn. Northwest winds will gust as high as 55 mph this afternoon and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Looks like Ames really lucked out compared to surrounding areas. Several reports of 6-7" in town, with 4" east/west of us where subsidence from the one good band decreased their totals a bit. Essentially any road outside of the city is considered impassable right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 43 minutes ago, (((Will))) said: I just saw this. YES! My storage cabin and garden shed 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 3.5" at MSP, 24 hour total of 4.5" if you include the front end bump. Puts me up to 54" on the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Will, it looks like you're running out of places to put it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 22 minutes ago, (((Will))) said: I'm guessing the owners of that middle house are in Key West for the winter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 the blizzard winds are not even here yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 DVN gusted to 54kt. A lot of places just in NW/NC IA are blow 1/4 SM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 12 minutes ago, (((Will))) said: Gusting 35-40mph up here already. I wish so bad I could get out and look around town but I'm stuck at home...nothing is plowed. I haven't seen a single car go by. Kinda starting to gust here a bit more. Not a single vehicle down my road since sometimes early evening. Before this is all over, I might be approaching 95-100” in 24 days. I love it can tell by radar, enhancement is picking up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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