kvegas-wx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Local mets advertised this as an overnight 6-9 hour event. So it either thumps heavy early or this will underperform for snow and IP. A few hours of light ZR gets you .15-.2, which is exactly what the WSW and WWAs are calling for. Hope for the frozen stuff but expect the wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 7 hours ago, kvegas-wx said: Local mets advertised this as an overnight 6-9 hour event. So it either thumps heavy early or this will underperform for snow and IP. A few hours of light ZR gets you .15-.2, which is exactly what the WSW and WWAs are calling for. Hope for the frozen stuff but expect the wet. I really think this is being underplayed in the Triad by local mets and NWS. HP in perfect position. Temps and DP in single digits over western PA this morning with strong CAD signal on all models. They do have WWA in place but I could see this one being just as bad as Jan storm in WS proper which was pretty dang bad especially for northern Forsyth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 This will be a very minor event outside the Mountains and Foothills. A glaze of .01-.05 is possible in the Triad, but I don’t expect more than that. With very marginal temps, roads should remain wet for the NW Piedmont. This is another Mountain/Foothills ice event, like the 5th or 6th this Winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Advisories issues as far east as Durham county. RAH mentions possibility of very light accrual on elevated surfaces maybe to Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said: Advisories issues as far east as Durham county. RAH mentions possibility of very light accrual on elevated surfaces maybe to Raleigh. Yeah, as jjwxman said this will be a minor event. If we get some light glaze on the car tops it's a win. At least we had something to track. Been such a boring winter after the December storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, FallsLake said: Yeah, as jjwxman said this will be a minor event. If we get some light glaze on the car tops it's a win. At least we had something to track. Been such a boring winter after the December storm. Agreed. Looks like northern wake has the best shot of anything. I could see a special weather statement for Wake, but not advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Yeah, as jjwxman said this will be a minor event. If we get some light glaze on the car tops it's a win. At least we had something to track. Been such a boring winter after the December storm. Agree on Wake county area. Whole different story here in the triad I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Agreed. Looks like northern wake has the best shot of anything. I could see a special weather statement for Wake, but not advisory. As weather weenies, we could ride the coldest model until the end. Here's the HRW WRF-NSSL. It would have RDU under frozen/freezing precip for 16 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, CentralNC said: Agree on Wake county area. Whole different story here in the triad I believe. If anybody gets anything substantial it would be your area and northward. Problem is we need colder temps to make a big ice storm. 30/31/32 doesn't do it. We need temps down into the 20s. But who knows, these setups have over performed (with cold) in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, FallsLake said: If anybody gets anything substantial it would be your area and northward. Problem is we need colder temps to make a big ice storm. 30/31/32 doesn't do it. We need temps down into the 20s. But who knows, these setups have over performed (with cold) in the past. You need 20s to get significant travel issues but not tree damage or power outages. During the January storm here, I think lowest northern part of Forsyth got was 31 degrees but we had HUGE amounts of trees down and power out for multiple days for thousands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Mostly sleet here now..had some snow mixed in earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, CentralNC said: You need 20s to get significant travel issues but not tree damage or power outages. During the January storm here, I think lowest northern part of Forsyth got was 31 degrees but we had HUGE amounts of trees down and power out for multiple days for thousands. And to your point, this will occur late night into early morning (low insolation). All we can do now is wait, and track the southward push of dew points and radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 12z NAM Soundings in Greensboro and Winston at the initial thump of precip look to be a rain snow mix, if not all snow if the precip is heavy enough, and all snow west and north of Winston. Of course that changes very quickly to rain/freezing rain overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Current analysis now shows a 1040mb center of HP over OH/PA state line. Let's see what happens this afternoon in regards to temps/dewpoints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, jjwxman said: Current analysis now shows a 1040mb center of HP over OH/PA state line. Let's see what happens this afternoon in regards to temps/dewpoints. 4MB stronger than the HRRR. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, jjwxman said: Current analysis now shows a 1040mb center of HP over OH/PA state line. Let's see what happens this afternoon in regards to temps/dewpoints. Looks spooky. Maybe that's a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: 4MB stronger than the HRRR. Something to watch. For some reason the HRRR tends to usually be to warm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Heavy sleet adding up fast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 KCLT had IP in their METAR a few obs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 29 minutes ago, jjwxman said: Current analysis now shows a 1040mb center of HP over OH/PA state line. Let's see what happens this afternoon in regards to temps/dewpoints. I really can't get over a 1040/1041mb high in perfect position and we still can't get anything worthwhile in ga/sc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Sleeting at UNCC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Have had light sleet with occasional snowflakes not too far from CLT off Billy Graham for the last 45 minutes or so. Not accumulating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 hour ago, FallsLake said: As weather weenies, we could ride the coldest model until the end. Here's the HRW WRF-NSSL. It would have RDU under frozen/freezing precip for 16 hours: I love this model. Unfortunately, it has an accuracy rating of -10. Why can’t it ever be right? Just once time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Radar seems to indicate a very over performing storm comparing it to the 15z HRRR. Radar is absolutely blowing up in the MS and TN Valley's.Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 If the HRRR is to be believed, this wont be much of a storm at all, even for the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 hours ago, Lookout said: I really can't get over a 1040/1041mb high in perfect position and we still can't get anything worthwhile in ga/sc. I agree, you would think with that strong of High Pressure there would be plenty of cold air for plain snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Big heavy wet snow in Matthews. This storm is baffling to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 A little sleet/rain mix here! Sleet not in forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenc Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, GunBlade said: Big heavy wet snow in Matthews. This storm is baffling to me. had some snow mix in here in SW Concord near Harrisburg about an hour ago. Right now waiting for the heavy prcip in your backyard to work up this way... Good to know I can expect SNOW///and yes a very dynamic storm indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheVille Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Sleet beginning in statesville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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