PackGrad05 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 When does the 18Z RGEM come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Winter weather Advisory for Southside, just to the North are the Winter storm Warnings. I was focused on Patrick County and the Stuart area which under a WSW, but yes, everything just east of there along the border is WWA. Either way, Patrick County is so fickle with the elevation changes. So I wouldnt expect to see much snow until you hit Hwy 58 from Lovers Leap to Galax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: When does the 18Z RGEM come out? Already out on this site... still showing more moisture and colder air than others... https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sn10_acc&rh=2019021818&fh=48&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 The 18z HRRR has some nice sleet returns for the Triangle at hour 36. But it never gets dew points (and consequently surface temps) below freezing. It will be very interesting tomorrow to see how far the dew points get pushed southwards from the north. This will be the key thing to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 At this point for Wake, it'll be interesting to watch temps and see if there are any road issues (bridges, etc..) that would impact commutes and/or schools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Might go snow chasing northbound from Winston on Weds AM. Figure I’ll need at least 50-60 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, CARDC79 said: Might go snow chasing northbound from Winston on Weds AM. Figure I’ll need at least 50-60 miles. Try Fancy Gap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 10 minutes ago, CentralNC said: Try Fancy Gap Agreed. Or up I81 from there if you get really ambitious. But your time may be limited unless you like chasing at night. Wednesday morning might be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 GSP Watches/Warnings/Advisories: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 18Z GFS doubling down for the mtns and foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 It generally has a cold bias, but the ICON looks nice. I'm not counting on that first push of moisture though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 18Z GFS was a little earlier with the arrival of the precip and maybe a touch colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: 18Z GFS was a little earlier with the arrival of the precip and maybe a touch colder? Yes! Hopefully a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Sadly, the high slides into the Atlantic pretty quickly! If only we had some blocking, could have been a big dog for alot! Recurring theme of winter, IF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Best run of the NAM yet if you like a lot of sleet and freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Best run of the NAM yet if you like a lot of sleet and freezing rain. Definitely had more moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 19, 2019 Author Share Posted February 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Best run of the NAM yet if you like a lot of sleet and freezing rain. 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Definitely had more moisture Front end thump is definitely noticeable and more in line with most guidance. Its finally getting a clue lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Front end thump is definitely noticeable and more in line with most guidance. Its finally getting a clue lol. Yeah, although the 3k looks good and then it looks like it falls apart... 12k looks better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 19, 2019 Author Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Yeah, although the 3k looks good and then it looks like it falls apart... 12k looks better I honestly dont know what to really expect out of this storm. Part of me has set the bar a little too high but then the other part of me wonders does southeast flow, moisture transport and lift make this thing over perform and continue the precip longer than what the models are showing in some instances? I guess safe for our areas is maybe a 2-4 type ordeal, then .25 of ice. High end maybe 3-5 with 1-2 tenths of ice. Low end being 1-2'' of snow and sleet accumulation followed by a prolonged freezing drizzle ordeal. Idk what do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: I honestly dont know what to really expect out of this storm. Part of me has set the bar a little too high but then the other part of me wonders does southeast flow, moisture transport and lift make this thing over perform and continue the precip longer than what the models are showing in some instances? I guess safe for our areas is maybe a 2-4 type ordeal, then .25 of ice. High end maybe 3-5 with 1-2 tenths of ice. Low end being 1-2'' of snow and sleet accumulation followed by a prolonged freezing drizzle ordeal. Idk what do you think? For my area in Dry Fork northwest of Danville, I'm going with about 1" of Snow/Sleet, with up go 1/4" of ZR... I would probably go with 2-3" for your location with the same ZR... hard to say. It could be more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 NAM still pretty much blanks Wake. North and west, as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 0z RGEM coming in now... let's see if it maintains the more moisture/ colder output... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Rgem sticking to its guns... colder and more moisture than other guidance with that front end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 19, 2019 Author Share Posted February 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Rgem sticking to its guns... colder and more moisture than other guidance with that front end thump. Pretty hefty warm nose showing up however. May be time to tame my expectations here. Sleet storms stink but they're better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Pretty hefty warm nose showing up however. May be time to tame my expectations here. Sleet storms stink but they're better than nothing. A lot better than most of this winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Looking like a quick thump of snow for the High Country and then an IP/ZR event for the WNC mountains and foothills...not too excited about the possibility of 14 hours of ZR/IP...get your bread and milk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 19, 2019 Author Share Posted February 19, 2019 11 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Rgem sticking to its guns... colder and more moisture than other guidance with that front end thump. Dang you're not kidding. over an inch of liquid for both our areas. More than double of what nam is producing. Now that would be a heck of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 14 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Dang you're not kidding. over an inch of liquid for both our areas. More than double of what nam is producing. Now that would be a heck of a storm. Still icing at the end of that rgem run in Roanoke... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 19, 2019 Author Share Posted February 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, mjwise said: Still icing at the end of that rgem run in Roanoke... Bring it on!! haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 19, 2019 Author Share Posted February 19, 2019 0z GFS trending wetter as well through the TN valley at 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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