BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 RGEM is a warning criteria event. NAM is still advisory but not as impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 18, 2019 Author Share Posted February 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: RGEM is a warning criteria event. NAM is still advisory but not as impressive. You gotta think depending on what 12z gfs run does that the way to go right now is a blend of Canadian, GFS, RGEM and ICON. All are pretty similar in surface depiction of qpf. Then I believe you can put the NAM and EURO in another camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 I wish the RGEM was correct, kinda worried , the NAM is to dry.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: I wish the RGEM was correct, kinda worried , the NAM is to dry.. I 100% hope the RGEM is wrong for the mtns lol. Anyway, what does concern me is the exact same thing happened with the December event. Nam dried a bit as it got close, while every other model increased QPF. The 12z runs will be a big indicator if we are going to see the same type of result of the Nam losing that battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 How good is the RGEM at 36+ hrs out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 18, 2019 Author Share Posted February 18, 2019 For me the GFS and FV3 are basically a carbon copy of their 6z counterpart. For northern NC zones and southern VA you cannot get a better placed high than what these models show. 1039 anchored up in central NY. Just opening the St Lawrence Valley and Canada wide open to funnel down some very cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 18, 2019 Author Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, McDowell_Weather said: How good is the RGEM at 36+ hrs out? Has a tendency to overdo cold and moisture would be careful at face value until we get just a little closer. It and the Canadian have scored wins this year though so obv don’t completely discount it just be aware of known biases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, Buddy1987 said: For me the GFS and FV3 are basically a carbon copy of their 6z counterpart. For northern NC zones and southern VA you cannot get a better placed high than what these models show. 1039 anchored up in central NY. Just opening the St Lawrence Valley and Canada wide open to funnel down some very cold air. I agree perfect spot just wish we had cold air in place before hand then us peeps further south would be in a whole other ball game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, McDowell_Weather said: I agree perfect spot just wish we had cold air in place before hand then us peeps further south would be in a whole other ball game. Definitely trended colder/more wintry so far today our way. I expect GSP to extend the watch to cover the entire immediate foothill counties of Caldwell, Burke, and McDowell. Probably Alexander as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Definitely trended colder so far today our way. I expect GSP to extend the watch to cover the entire immediate foothill counties of Caldwell, Burke, and McDowell. Probably Alexander as well. Buncombe, Henderson, and Transylvania also I would bet. Henderson for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said: Buncombe, Henderson, and Transylvania also I would bet. Henderson for sure. Yes absolutely. Brevard to Mills River may be ground zero for this to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Yes absolutely. Brevard to Mills River may be ground zero for this to be honest. They do take a beating when there is ice. My daughter lives in Pisgah Forest and the number of trees down up on her mountain during the last ice amount was amazing. Even in West Asheville, we had the most ice I had remembered seeing in a while. I prefer snow !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Definitely trended colder/more wintry so far today our way. I expect GSP to extend the watch to cover the entire immediate foothill counties of Caldwell, Burke, and McDowell. Probably Alexander as well. That's what I was thinking 12z runs have trended in our favor. The more sleet the better I'm not expecting to much if any snow just depends if the 700s are still below when the precipitation moves in witch is what the RGEM was showing threading the needle like always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 The Canadian and RGEM have a lot more snow and ICE for my area than other models... I dont think they are right.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowjimmy73 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: The Canadian and RGEM have a lot more snow and ICE for my area than other models... I dont think they are right.. havent seen them but down here in danville its makin me a bit anxious. Yet again the curse of my bday strikes! i get a gorgeous day today for it and then boom the bottom falls out...we laugh because its been a thing everywhere ive lived. from the great presidents day storm 1979 which stoked my 6 year old inner weather weenie to 2003 and everything in between, heres hoping it stays more snow than ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DonnieB Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Atlantic ridge trending stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Of course I'm riding the model that shows the best chance of wintery precip. 12z HRW WRF-NSSL: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 NWS RaleighVerified account @NWSRaleigh 14m14 minutes ago Latest update regarding Tue Night -> Wednesday AM wintry mix. Forecast has trended slightly warmer, resulting in reduced icing and snow/sleet amounts. Still a few slick spots possible for your morning commute on Wednesday. Download latest #NCwx brief: https://www.weather.gov/media/rah/briefing/NWSRaleighLatestBriefing.pdf … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Solak said: NWS RaleighVerified account @NWSRaleigh 14m14 minutes ago Latest update regarding Tue Night -> Wednesday AM wintry mix. Forecast has trended slightly warmer, resulting in reduced icing and snow/sleet amounts. Still a few slick spots possible for your morning commute on Wednesday. Download latest #NCwx brief: https://www.weather.gov/media/rah/briefing/NWSRaleighLatestBriefing.pdf … What is showing warmer?? Why would they lower amounts when models are trending colder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 WSWatch up for southern and SW VA elevated areas. Just saw the post for stuart and it says "up to 7" of snow"...!! I'm going to assume that means the elevated areas of Patrick County and not Stuart proper. Anyone have a Bufkit for ROA that might show what elevation will see heavy snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: WSWatch up for southern and SW VA elevated areas. Just saw the post for stuart and it says "up to 7" of snow"...!! I'm going to assume that means the elevated areas of Patrick County and not Stuart proper. Anyone have a Bufkit for ROA that might show what elevation will see heavy snow? Looks like that up to 7" includes everyone under the watch. As we get closer they will fine tune the details for different locations... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Looking better for folks near the VA/NC line.. Looking worse for central NC, once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Looks like that up to 7" includes everyone under the watch. As we get closer they will fine tune the details for different locations... Elevated areas will do ok, but I bet you the biggest winners are folks in the north NC foothills and west VA folks. This is the area that may see the lowest temps and longer duration below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 33 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Looks like that up to 7" includes everyone under the watch. As we get closer they will fine tune the details for different locations... Yep, I see that now that I am back at my PC. Didn't realize it was a broad advisory that stretched all the way to DC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 In this setup, this is what I would go with. Southern VA - 1-2" Snow/ .10-.20 ZR Central VA - 3-5" Snow/ up to 1/4" ZR Northern VA - 6-9" Snow/ .10-.15 ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 4 hours ago, ncjoaquin said: Buncombe, Henderson, and Transylvania also I would bet. Henderson for sure. Looks GSP going with a WWA for those outside the warning area and a warning for those already in the watch. Hard to argue with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Still a go from RAH. Wouldn't be a big event, but at least something: .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 315 PM Monday... ...Continued threat of light icing and a wintry mixture across the interior and northern Piedmont late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning... A strong and cold 1038 hPa high pressure system will move into the PA/NY region Tuesday night and weaken as it pushed off the New England coast late Wednesday. The high is transient but located in a favorable location to establish a CAD regime late Tuesday that will extend into Thursday. Dry air with surface dew points in the teens will extend south from the DC area across eastern VA into eastern NC on Tuesday afternoon. At the same time, a strong upper level trough will exit the western U.S. and move into the Central Plains as a 100+ kt jet develops over TX and moves northeast on Wednesday. A strengthening low and mid level southerly flow will moisten the atmosphere and provide lift across central NC late Tuesday through Wednesday night providing periods of precipitation. As the low level flow strengthens ahead of the approaching upper level trough, isentropic lift will increase primarily in the 295 to 300K layer resulting in a region of largely low and mid level ascent. This results in area of warm advection precipitation that will overspread the region from southwest to northeast between midnight and daybreak Wednesday morning. Forecast soundings suggest that the deep layer moisture and ascent will be confined below 600 hPa. Given this and the strong warm nose that develops at 800 hPa Wednesday morning with a southwest flow at 50 kts, don`t expect much snow although a few flakes could mix in toward the VA border around midnight. The precipitation will produce some wet bulb cooling as the surface layer becomes saturated. Not surprisingly the NAM is the coolest guidance with the wet bulb freezing line pushing south into northern Richmond, Cumberland and western Wilson counties which should serve as the farthest extent of any freezing rain potential. The GFS is notably warmer in the surface layer Given the GFS is notably warmer at the surface and similar in the partials. Will lean toward the cooler NAM solution given its skill to handle these patterns more skillfully. This will support a changeover from rain to freezing rain as temperatures fall to 32 or 31 in the damming region from Albemarle to Raleigh to Warrenton northwestward. Given the marginal surface temperature, the light precipitation amounts, some lulls in the precipitation and moderate temperatures ahead of the event, expect ice accumulations will be limited and mainly confined to locations near and north of I-85 where a light glaze is possible with radial ice accumulations of 0.05 inches or less. Temperatures will moderate ever so slightly After sunrise on Wednesday, and any freezing rain will diminish from south to north and end during the mid morning. Lows will range in the 31 to 32 range in the northern Piedmont and the mid 30s elsewhere. A well established CAD regime will remain in place on Wednesday and Wednesday night with periods of light rain continuing. Highs on Wednesday will range in the mid 30s across the Triad and in the mid to upper 40s across the Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain. Temperatures will be steady or rise a degree or two on Wednesday night under overcast skies and periods of light rain, drizzle and mist. Most NWP systems blast the CAD away on Thursday with the exception of the NAM. GFS MOS provides a high of 66 in GSO on Thursday and 77 at FAY. While the CAD should weaken, given the pattern and the lack of a well defined erosion mechanism, still feel it will remain in place longer and more resilient than much of the guidance says. Will undercut guidance and go with highs in the lower 50s in the Triad to the upper 60s southeast. Huge bust potential with the temperature forecast so stay tuned. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Blacksburg out with a more refined WSW for southern VA and western VA for up to 3" snow and sleet and a minor icing event. Sounds more reasonable but rates will have to overcome the warming of todays 60°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Blacksburg out with a more refined WSW for southern VA and western VA for up to 3" snow and sleet and a minor icing event. Sounds more reasonable but rates will have to overcome the warming of todays 60°. Winter weather Advisory for Southside, just to the North are the Winter storm Warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 RGEM still holding on to the idea of more Moisture and colder air... shows more snow in southern and central va... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.