LibertyBell Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I think if anyone in this sub-forum gets over 4” it’s going to be in places like Morristown, Somerset, Hackettstown, etc. Basically Warren, Morris, Sussex and Western Passaic. I think most of NY is too far North and East. The snowfall map predictions with this storm are pretty weird, there haven't been many storms that were like that. SW Long Island will see more snow than NE Long Island- reminds me of the early Feb 2010 event, but a different way to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Current temp 27/DP 11/RH 45% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 NWS in Philly and NYC upped the snowfall forecasts for most of the advisory counties in CNJ, NNJ, NE NJ, NYC, and the Hudson Valley from 1-3" to 2-4". Always thought 1-3" was too low. Snowfall maps reflect significant increases vs. yesterday afternoon's, with many locations predicted to be right at 4" (makes me wonder why the advisories in many places aren't for 3-5"). Nice. https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=winter weather advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Good Wednesday morning Feb 20, Two of these graphics are posted for look back tomorrow to see if they were any good. The last, to see if indeed the storm track shifts southeastward (still fast movers), and that the frigid air in Montana and occasionally the upper Midwest this month, sends a portion into the northeast. This latter is the NAEFS. The first-top graphic is the HRRRX and information not yet operational. It has potential but also varies at times. Imperfect but what it shows for accumulation from 06z/20-07z/21 is imo, I think reasonable unless others here see flaws ( I do think it has ridges high bias). Legend along the bottom should help. The middle graphic is the WPC ensemble probability for more than 2" of snow today. Legend lower left again with the probs. Biggest chance...s Central PA. 649A/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 10 minutes ago, RU848789 said: NWS in Philly and NYC upped the snowfall forecasts for most of the advisory counties in CNJ, NNJ, NE NJ, NYC, and the Hudson Valley from 1-3" to 2-4". Always thought 1-3" was too low. Snowfall maps reflect significant increases vs. yesterday afternoon's, with many locations predicted to be right at 4" (makes me wonder why the advisories in many places aren't for 3-5"). Nice. https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=winter weather advisory That's an insane forecast for NYC, its like they have absolutely no memory and completely forgot their massive busts on every storm this winter. This is the same pattern and another cutter. NYC is NOT getting 4 inches of snow. The PATTERN does not support this! Maybe 1 inch of snow to rain and I'm worried that is high. Very easily could be a few flakes going quickly to sleet than rain. Last storm I went with zero snow while they had inches. The soundings are horrid and snow growth very poor. You have a dying band of snow/sneet which will be outrunning it's own dynamics, there is nothing good about the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: That's an insane forecast for NYC, its like they have absolutely no memory and completely forgot their massive busts on every storm this winter. This is the same pattern and another cutter. NYC is NOT getting 4 inches of snow. The PATTERN does not support this! Maybe 1 inch of snow to rain and I'm worried that is high. Very easily could be a few flakes going quickly to sleet than rain. This is a weak cutter with alot of cold air Ever heard of a front end thump ? Radar looks very good I like 1-3 for NYC with potential for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, qg_omega said: That's an insane forecast for NYC, its like they have absolutely no memory and completely forgot their massive busts on every storm this winter. This is the same pattern and another cutter. NYC is NOT getting 4 inches of snow. The PATTERN does not support this! Maybe 1 inch of snow to rain and I'm worried that is high. Very easily could be a few flakes going quickly to sleet than rain. Going with persistence huh? Explain to the masses how the pattern doesn’t support this? Unless dry air wins out this is supportive of a 2-4” snowfall before mixing. Much better airmass this time around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 4 minutes ago, qg_omega said: That's an insane forecast for NYC, its like they have absolutely no memory and completely forgot their massive busts on every storm this winter. This is the same pattern and another cutter. NYC is NOT getting 4 inches of snow. The PATTERN does not support this! Maybe 1 inch of snow to rain and I'm worried that is high. Very easily could be a few flakes going quickly to sleet than rain. 2-4" might be slightly high for NYC; 1-3" might be a better call, but no model is showing <1" and some are showing 2-4", including the Euro, so <1" is not a realistic forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 8 minutes ago, qg_omega said: That's an insane forecast for NYC, its like they have absolutely no memory and completely forgot their massive busts on every storm this winter. This is the same pattern and another cutter. NYC is NOT getting 4 inches of snow. The PATTERN does not support this! Maybe 1 inch of snow to rain and I'm worried that is high. Very easily could be a few flakes going quickly to sleet than rain. Last storm I went with zero snow while they had inches. The soundings are horrid and snow growth very poor. You have a dying band of snow/sneet which will be outrunning it's own dynamics, there is nothing good about the setup. Dude give it a rest.... we know where you stand with literally every storm! My advice is go troll on another board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 The precip is advancing pretty good on radar and getting closer. This might come in earlier which would be good. I like 1-3 but wouldn't be shocked to see slightly more. Depends how quickly it falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Dude give it a rest.... we know where you stand with literally every storm! My advice is go troll on another board. I got close to 2 inches from the cutter a few weeks ago and that was stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Those NWS maps are in line with what the EURO is showing. If you're wondering what the EURO is showing, that's basically it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 I'm afraid I'm gonna bust today. Only got down to 29 here and the temperature is already creeping up 31/12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 13 hours ago, snowman19 said: What? 1-3 inches is more than reasonable for tomorrow. 2 inch per hour rates? Stop, nothing supports that. Before you go criticizing Upton and Mt. Holly for their forecasts, you need to get your info straight. No one in the metro is getting 6 inches out of this and very likely not any more than 3 inches at the most. As to your other post, this is a completely, totally different setup and storm than November, like not even remotely close, besides the time of day Thoughts on Upton's forecast map this morning now? They seem to be going a lot higher now than what you were saying yesterday. Looks like they got their info straight now. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 13 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The precip is advancing pretty good on radar and getting closer. This might come in earlier which would be good. I like 1-3 but wouldn't be shocked to see slightly more. Depends how quickly it falls. Also depends on where the heavier banding sets up, currently this looks to be from C NJ on west. It'll be close for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 30 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Going with persistence huh? Explain to the masses how the pattern doesn’t support this? Unless dry air wins out this is supportive of a 2-4” snowfall before mixing. Much better airmass this time around Unfortunately that is the concern for today, dry air breaking up the precip is the issue, not really concerned about temps until after dark. The danger is the precip breaking up before it gets to the city which it will to an extent but hopefully not completely. Overall I'd say 1-3 inches for the city seems like the best bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 15 minutes ago, CarLover014 said: I'm afraid I'm gonna bust today. Only got down to 29 here and the temperature is already creeping up 31/12 That's a pretty obvious evaporational cooling DP. Everyone will be mid 20s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Anyone have a start time ? Radar looks REAL close to NYC and me in Rockland but is that Virga or is it making it to the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 I wonder if NWS is going that high due to higher than 10 to 1 snowfall ratios? What exactly did the 6z euro show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 2 hours ago, qg_omega said: Last storm I went with zero snow while they had inches. And you completely busted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 You can tell by the lack of posts the NAM, 3k NAM are less than impressive hoping we can squeeze 2 inches out of this. If we can get a decent band maybe 3". Fingers crossed we can saturate quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: You can tell by the lack of posts the NAM, 3k NAM are less than impressive hoping we can squeeze 2 inches out of this. If we can get a decent band maybe 3". Fingers crossed we can saturate quickly. The NAM is verifying poorly right now. It has no snow in PHL til 16Z and they’ve been snowing for close to a half hour. It’s much too slow on the advancement of the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The NAM is verifying poorly right now. It has no snow in PHL til 16Z and they’ve been snowing for close to a half hour. It’s much too slow on the advancement of the snow EURO doing better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: EURO doing better? The Euro and RGEM timing were better when I looked earlier. It sure looks like NYC will be snowing by 17-1715Z although ABE took forever for snow to reach the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 My Final Call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 5 hours ago, qg_omega said: That's an insane forecast for NYC, its like they have absolutely no memory and completely forgot their massive busts on every storm this winter. This is the same pattern and another cutter. NYC is NOT getting 4 inches of snow. The PATTERN does not support this! Maybe 1 inch of snow to rain and I'm worried that is high. Very easily could be a few flakes going quickly to sleet than rain. Last storm I went with zero snow while they had inches. The soundings are horrid and snow growth very poor. You have a dying band of snow/sneet which will be outrunning it's own dynamics, there is nothing good about the setup. NYC is already at an inch. I guess it's suppose to stop immediately? Asking for a friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: My Final Call wow..no way am I getting 3-5 inches..wow 1-3 and judging by radar 1-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 NYC is already at an inch. I guess it's suppose to stop immediately? Asking for a friend. 3 inches gone by noon tomorrow at 51 degrees. Meh.. I'll pass. Hope it's gone soonerSent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 6 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: NYC is already at an inch. I guess it's suppose to stop immediately? Asking for a friend. Central park is not at an inch and yes, this is peak snow growth. We loose the forcing and transition to sneet/sleet in the next hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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