Brasiluvsnow Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Eps also ticked north North n East keep coming !!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, RU848789 said: My new favorite table/graphic...for Newark, LaGuardia and Philly. Between the American models, the Euro and CMC, I'm not seeing any models with frozen LE <0.3" right now for most of the Philly-NYC region and most have 0.5"+ frozen LE, as snow+sleet; note that maps of the CMC don't show sleet, but soundings show a decent amount of sleet (~0.3" LE as sleet) in addition to the 1-3 of snow that model is showing. And most of this falls between about noon and 6 pm after everyone gets to work. Sound familiar? Did your schools announce an early dismissal yet? Many have. Don't want a repeat of last Nov, and they day counts as a full instructional day ( no lunch ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: What? 1-3 inches is more than reasonable for tomorrow. 2 inch per hour rates? Stop, nothing supports that. Before you go criticizing Upton and Mt. Holly for their forecasts, you need to get your info straight. No one in the metro is getting 6 inches out of this and very likely not any more than 3 inches at the most. As to your other post, this is a completely, totally different setup and storm than November, like not even remotely close, besides the time of day I think you're blinded by your anti-snow bias. 3-6" is a good call, a lot of forecasts suggest this. Snow will come in like a wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 9 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Did your schools announce an early dismissal yet? Many have. Don't want a repeat of last Nov, and they day counts as a full instructional day ( no lunch ). Not yet, but for years, I've been providing the Metuchen schools with info on winter weather (my best friend used to be asst. superintendent and I still know a lot of folks affiliated with the schools). They usually wait until 5 am or so, unless it's a slam dunk coming snowmageddon or an overnight storm. I think they'll let out early (I give info, I don't make recommendations, per se). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Nam cut back a bit, snow isn't as intense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 NAM seems a bit south with the overrunning, however the frozen precip hangs on a long time for Northern NYC and the suburbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 14 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Not yet, but for years, I've been providing the Metuchen schools with info on winter weather (my best friend used to be asst. superintendent and I still know a lot of folks affiliated with the schools). They usually wait until 5 am or so, unless it's a slam dunk coming snowmageddon or an overnight storm. I think they'll let out early (I give info, I don't make recommendations, per se). I see. Given that ours already made the call, it's likely others in the area will follow suit. We had too many kids stuck in Nov. Course my son's first class is a lab at 2:15 at Rutgers, but if things look bad they might cancel pm classes. When I was there decades ago they almost never closed. But then, the weather wasn't as bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 1 minute ago, NycStormChaser said: Barely into CNJ.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 12 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Nam cut back a bit, snow isn't as intense I gotta wonder if there's any point to following these models, which seem to cut back as we get closer to the events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Just now, weatherpruf said: I gotta wonder if there's any point to following these models, which seem to cut back as we get closer to the events. It's still decent for the metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Nam is similiar to the Euro for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 10 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: While thats not really what our area wants to see the HRRR did a good job with the last storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 6 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: While thats not really what our area wants to see the HRRR did a good job with the last storm I rarely use it beyond 6-8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I rarely use it beyond 6-8 hours. Hrrr changes alot even close to an event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 11 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: While thats not really what our area wants to see the HRRR did a good job with the last storm It would be a big disappointment and in keeping with the whole winter, north of us or south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Just now, weatherpruf said: It would be a big disappointment and in keeping with the whole winter, north of us or south of us. I would feel pretty good now near NYC. The tendency is for banding to end up somewhat north of where it’s shown. Most of the models show it just south of the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 21 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: While thats not really what our area wants to see the HRRR did a good job with the last storm That could easily end up further north, it's a common trend as we get close to the event. HRRR isn't very reliable outside of 8 hours though but it does support the 1-2" hourly max rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I would feel pretty good now near NYC. The tendency is for banding to end up somewhat north of where it’s shown. Most of the models show it just south of the metro I'm thinking 1-2 inches followed by some sleet/ possibly brief ZR and then some rain. In this winter it's not terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I would feel pretty good now near NYC. The tendency is for banding to end up somewhat north of where it’s shown. Most of the models show it just south of the metro Thanks for you input here and your reasoned responses. Much of the jargon here is over my head; I'm in a whole different kind of work. I just met a former student who wants to go into meteorology at Kean; he gets this stuff a lot better than me. Kean, I hear, has a decent undergrad program. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 52 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: While thats not really what our area wants to see the HRRR did a good job with the last storm That's not correct. HRRR was the model that busted terribly with the last storm. Remember everyone here kept commenting that HRRR was the coldest and showed NYC getting 2 inches of snow. NAM was warmest and said no snow for NYC and only for well north of NYC. Most of the area ended up getting no snow accumulation. NAM did best with the last storm and HRRR was the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 11 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: That's not correct. HRRR was the model that busted terribly with the last storm. Remember everyone here kept commenting that HRRR was the coldest and showed NYC getting 2 inches of snow. NAM was warmest and said no snow for NYC and only for well north of NYC. Most of the area ended up getting no snow accumulation. NAM did best with the last storm and HRRR was the worst. i guess its depends where and how many hours out. I know the NAM was projecting 4-6 inches of snow in the HV and the HRRR was the one that really showed the precip shearing out. Temps were sort of the issue for the city with that one but the even bigger issue for the area as a whole was lack of qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 28 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: That's not correct. HRRR was the model that busted terribly with the last storm. Remember everyone here kept commenting that HRRR was the coldest and showed NYC getting 2 inches of snow. NAM was warmest and said no snow for NYC and only for well north of NYC. Most of the area ended up getting no snow accumulation. NAM did best with the last storm and HRRR was the worst. Agreed. The HRRR showed 2 inches of snow the other night when it had already started as rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 25 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: i guess its depends where and how many hours out. I know the NAM was projecting 4-6 inches of snow in the HV and the HRRR was the one that really showed the precip shearing out. Temps were sort of the issue for the city with that one but the even bigger issue for the area as a whole was lack of qpf. I don't think there was a clear winner regarding QPF in the last storm. Liquid equivalent in far northern areas (central Ulster and Dutchess into northern CT) verified quite a bit closer to the NAM than the HRRR. Both models struggled with the tenacity of the dry slot/subsidence south of 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 I’m not a huge fan of this storm. At 500mb we’re DOA. All of the precip is thermally driven, and intitially the cold, dry air holds all the way down into VA. Unfortunately as the afternoon goes on, the high weakens and pulls East. So precip rates weaken as everything pushes NE. What looks like a blossoming snow shield over Northern VA and MD in the morning might fall apart some by the time it makes it up here. Once all the cold air is gone, the precip will stop. It is possible the that the cold hair hangs tough a little longer than forecasted, and I think we’ll see a 3-5 hour period of moderate snow, but the main target area is the I-81 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Models will do poorely with this storm however the HRRR might be most useful tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 I like 1-3” or 2-4” for mostly everyone with some sleet and ice. Someone might get an isolated 4-6”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I like 1-3” or 2-4” for mostly everyone with some sleet and ice. Someone might get an isolated 4-6”. I agree with you on everything you posted. I think only areas who see 4-6 are south and west of city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Current temp 29/DP 10/RH 39% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: I agree with you on everything you posted. I think only areas who see 4-6 are south and west of city. I think if anyone in this sub-forum gets over 4” it’s going to be in places like Morristown, Somerset, Hackettstown, etc. Basically Warren, Morris, Sussex and Western Passaic. I think most of NY is too far North and East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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