sferic Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Liberty NY 6:20PM 19.9 degrees Light Freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Pretty much anything that could go wrong this year is. Today we got burned by some spun off vorticity that occurred out in the Midwest riding the ridge and drying out the snow shield otherwise we probably get 3-5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Pretty much anything that could go wrong this year is. Today we got burned by some spun off vorticity that occurred out in the Midwest riding the ridge and drying out the snow shield otherwise we probably get 3-5 inches Any chance you could expand on this?I'd love to know exactly what this means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: Pretty much anything that could go wrong this year is. Today we got burned by some spun off vorticity that occurred out in the Midwest riding the ridge and drying out the snow shield otherwise we probably get 3-5 inches We should keep this in mind for any future events this year. Superstitious I know, but it has been true nonetheless. We had maybe two or three decent bands, the rest had the hallmark of light precip that lets you know you aren't going to get much. Seen it a thousand times. FWIW, this is what I experienced last March when areas to the west of me had well over a foot. We had 4 inches out this way. Seems that is an area wide thing this year. Doesn't seem to stop the torrential rains though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 1 hour ago, TheManWithNoFace said: Any chance you could expand on this?I'd love to know exactly what this means. I can’t take the credit for discovering it. Like a couple of other forecasters I thought it might have been a secondary disturbance coming across at 500mb but I believe this was correct. Basically was a large area of negative vorticity advection that led to strong sinking air and subsidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I can’t take the credit for discovering it. Like a couple of other forecasters I thought it might have been a secondary disturbance coming across at 500mb but I believe this was correct. Basically was a large area of negative vorticity advection that led to strong sinking air and subsidence Thank you. I wonder how this could have been woven into a forecast, rather than a real time ob. I saw that convection last night and thought it would help push the best lift north, rather than introduce nva. I guess that's why you and HM are the best there is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, TheManWithNoFace said: Thank you. I wonder how this could have been woven into a forecast, rather than a real time ob. I saw that convection last night and thought it would help push the best lift north, rather than introduce nva. I guess that's why you and HM are the best there is. This is fairly rare. It’s more common for snow events down in the mid Atlantic or south central US to be impacted by strong gulf convection cutting off moisture transport but something like this is hard to predict Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 2 hours ago, weatherpruf said: I'm surprised anyone from Brooklyn has even heard of Newark:). I went to Newark airport last week lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: Pretty much anything that could go wrong this year is. Today we got burned by some spun off vorticity that occurred out in the Midwest riding the ridge and drying out the snow shield otherwise we probably get 3-5 inches Honestly this event went about as well as could've been expected, the city got there 2 inches on average and probably won't see much rain. Sure it's not great but in a winter like this it's a good event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: Honestly this event went about as well as could've been expected, the city got there 2 inches on average and probably won't see much rain. Sure it's not great but in a winter like this it's a good event Exactly. At least we didn't bust this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: I went to Newark airport last week lol Yes there's even an airport there. But it is actually partly in Elizabeth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: This is fairly rare. It’s more common for snow events down in the mid Atlantic or south central US to be impacted by strong gulf convection cutting off moisture transport but something like this is hard to predict That particular cause may be rare; I can assure you subsidence is certainly not rare round my neighborhood. It's an ongoing theme, storm after storm. Guess everyone got a taste of it this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 15 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said: Thoughts on Upton's forecast map this morning now? They seem to be going a lot higher now than what you were saying yesterday. Looks like they got their info straight now. Thoughts? Karma. 1-2 inches total for the entire NYC metro area. I barely got 1.5” up here, less for NYC. Looks like I was right. :-) Pouring rain for the last 2 hours and lots of melt with the little that fell. I was just outside doing an Irish square dance in the rain, it’s a beautiful, wonderful thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 12 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Karma. 1-2 inches total for the entire NYC metro area. I barely got 1.5” up here, less for NYC. Looks like I was right. :-) Pouring rain for the last 2 hours and lots of melt with the little that fell. I was just outside doing an Irish square dance in the rain, it’s a beautiful, wonderful thing All the local forecast verified for the city. Not sure why Upton was a bit on the higher side but they weren't off by much. If they forecasted a foot of snow and we got 10 inches, no one would be nit picking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 7 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: All the local forecast verified for the city. Not sure why Upton was a bit on the higher side but they weren't off by much. If they forecasted a foot of snow and we got 10 inches, no one would be nit picking Upton verifies fine in all likelihood if the subsistent zone doesn’t come across. The radar looked very good til that occurred and it’s hard to believe we don’t get 3-5 inches if that doesn’t happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: Karma. 1-2 inches total for the entire NYC metro area. I barely got 1.5” up here, less for NYC. Looks like I was right. :-) Pouring rain for the last 2 hours and lots of melt with the little that fell. I was just outside doing an Irish square dance in the rain, it’s a beautiful, wonderful thing 2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: Upton verifies fine in all likelihood if the subsistent zone doesn’t come across. The radar looked very good til that occurred and it’s hard to believe we don’t get 3-5 inches if that doesn’t happen This..... On another note, this thing is going to overperform here on the water in Boston. 1" down with a heavy, filled-in radar back to the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 And now it's back to tiny flakes. They're literally just sliding off things and collecting in the low points as they get blown around by just the slightest breeze. I might get lucky soon though, it's up to 31 on a south wind so it will probably only be a short time before it goes to just rain. We'll see how much that accretes on already frozen surfaces before it starts to melt off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Wasn't a total bust here, had about 2". It's not compacted down to 1.5" with the sleet and Freezing rain, but it was a decent storm. Made it too icy for me to go to work and tutor this afternoon, had to move the session to Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Freezing rain continues out this way; looks like more ice accretion than last storm...should be fun digging the driveway out in the morning. Temp has risen to 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Another terrible storm in the books. .2-.3" of ice on everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.