Stormlover74 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 6:08 PM, Gravity Wave said: Odd that Upton is so timid on this storm after being ridiculously bullish on last week's slizzard. Expand That's a good sign. Maybe we overperform Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 6:41 PM, RU848789 said: Nice improvements on the 12Z Euro: 4-6" for most of CNJ/E PA and 3-4" for NYC/NE NJ (in Upton's CWA). 4" line runs from the NW Warren/Sussex border down to midtown Manhattan and then to JFK, roughly; a 2nd 4" line runs from about Baltimore to Wilmington and then over to about LBI, with everything in between those lines in the 4-6" swath in NJ and PA all the way out to Central PA (where it eventually gets to 6-8"). Like it. 3" line runs from about Middletown, NY to Stamford, CT and down to about Brookhaven, LI. As modeled. Expand Is that assuming 10:1 snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 6:47 PM, CarLover014 said: Is that assuming 10:1 snow? Expand Weather.us output just says "accumulated snow" but doesn't say it's 10:1 basis or if it includes sleet; however, the amount of "snow water equivalent" of 10-14 mm for the general area that's in the 4-6" swath is pretty consistent with 4-6" of 10:1 ratio snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 6:41 PM, RU848789 said: Nice improvements on the 12Z Euro: 4-6" for most of CNJ/E PA and 3-4" for NYC/NE NJ (in Upton's CWA). 4" line runs from the NW Warren/Sussex border down to midtown Manhattan and then to JFK, roughly; a 2nd 4" line runs from about Baltimore to Wilmington and then over to about LBI, with everything in between those lines in the 4-6" swath in NJ and PA all the way out to Central PA (where it eventually gets to 6-8"). Like it. 3" line runs from about Middletown, NY to Stamford, CT and down to about Brookhaven, LI. As modeled. Expand Lets hope the north trend continues. Won't take much to get those heavier snows up into NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 6:47 PM, CarLover014 said: Is that assuming 10:1 snow? Expand Based on soundings and these sort of events it’s generally 10:1. You might be 12:1 for a time when it first begins and snow is very light but the 2-3 hours before you transition it’s generally 10:1 or even 9:1 maybe at the very end. The 700-850 temps are always fairly warm so even if you’re 25-28 at the surface ratios aren’t great. NAM soundings if you assume WAA is underdone suggest we could start mixing at 22Z though many models say it doesn’t happen til 00-01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Should be mostly frozen/snow through 0z for the city, NEPA, western Jersey (except south). Thinking 2-4" as a guess, you're on the higher side of that in PA. Warm nose probably a bit further north, same with main frontogen forcing as we tend to see in these types of setups. OKX not having a single WWA seems weird to me. Figure the overnight crew will have to do the lifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Downgraded from a Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Weather Advisory here for 1-3" of snow and a light glaze of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Nam is a quicker flip to sleet this run but what does fall as snow looks heavier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Despite most of the models showing an increase in snowfall vs. last night (including the Euro, which is now showing 3-6" for all of the Philly-NYC corridor and CNJ/NNJ/NYC), the NWS-Philly actually decreased snowfall amounts for most of SE PA, SNJ, CNJ and NNJ and issued advisories for most locations for 1-3"/2-4" amounts (2-4" for Philly/SE PA; 1-3" for Trenton to Woodbridge, including all of CNJ to the coast). Some sleet is possible, as is a light glaze of freezing rain for most locations. A little surprised they didn't at least go with 2-4" to maybe 3-5" area wide, which is still just advisory level snow (warnings are for 6" or more N of 195/276 and for 5" or more for S of 195/276). NWS-NYC hasn't updated their area yet and no snowfall maps are up yet. Soon - more to come. Below and link is to advisories. https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=okx&wwa=winter weather advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Upton going 1-3" as well in WWA Edit 2-4" in local forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 8:18 PM, RU848789 said: Despite most of the models showing an increase in snowfall vs. last night (including the Euro, which is now showing 3-6" for all of the Philly-NYC corridor and CNJ/NNJ/NYC), the NWS-Philly actually decreased snowfall amounts for most of SE PA, SNJ, CNJ and NNJ and issued advisories for most locations for 1-3"/2-4" amounts (2-4" for Philly/SE PA; 1-3" for Trenton to Woodbridge, including all of CNJ to the coast). Some sleet is possible, as is a light glaze of freezing rain for most locations. https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=okx&wwa=winter weather advisory Expand They're seeing the warm nose further north, which I think is the prudent call given what has been going on down south. If main frontogen band is further north, likelihood of warm nose being further north than progged too. There's a much higher risk of a quicker mix in PHL and SEPA into SWNJ. Not an easy forecast at all down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 8:23 PM, NittanyWx said: They're seeing the warm nose further north, which I think is the prudent call given what has been going on down south. If main frontogen band is further north, likelihood of warm nose being further north than progged too. There's a much higher risk of a quicker mix in PHL and SEPA into SWNJ. Not an easy forecast at all down there. Expand But why then have more for Philly/SE PA (2-4") than for Upper Bucks/Hunterdon/Somerset/Middlesex (1-3")? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stu Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 This Winter reminds me a lot of my high school football days. About once a week, in the showers after games, we'd spend an awful lot of energy arguing over a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 My hunch is there’s too much GFS weighting going into these forecasts. I wouldn’t go under 2-4 right now. 1-3 is opening the door for trouble. Especially in the Trenton to Staten Island corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 8:40 PM, SnowGoose69 said: My hunch is there’s too much GFS weighting going into these forecasts. I wouldn’t go under 2-4 right now. 1-3 is opening the door for trouble. Especially in the Trenton to Staten Island corridor Expand NAM pretty much held. Where is the NE trend when we need it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 9:05 PM, EastonSN+ said: NAM pretty much held. Where is the NE trend when we need it! Expand Positive depth change now at 4" for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Weenie sleet as snow map more impressive at 6"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 20 more miles ne pls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 9:05 PM, EastonSN+ said: NAM pretty much held. Where is the NE trend when we need it! Expand It’s been happening for the last 2 days. It may happen in real time tomorrow. The last couple of events ended up more north than even the recent cycle or two of models before it showed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 9:17 PM, SnowGoose69 said: It’s been happening for the last 2 days. It may happen in real time tomorrow. The last couple of events ended up more north than even the recent cycle or two of models before it showed Expand Thanks. Hopeful for this one as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 The Upton call this time is a good one. 1-3 inches for the entire metro, I’d even go 1-2 inches, I think 3 would be the limit and isolated. The new 3K NAM illustrates my thinking exactly. There’s going to be a mid-level warm nose. The models always underdue the warm nose. Here’s the 3K NAM: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021918&fh=41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 9:27 PM, snowman19 said: The Upton call this time is a good one. 1-3 inches for the entire metro, I’d even go 1-2 inches, I think 3 would be the limit and isolated. The new 3K NAM illustrates my thinking exactly. There’s going to be a mid-level warm nose. The models always underdue the warm nose. Here’s the 3K NAM: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021918&fh=41 Expand If the warm nose is pronounced this will be another mostly sleet to rain event right? Can't catch a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 9:17 PM, SnowGoose69 said: It’s been happening for the last 2 days. It may happen in real time tomorrow. The last couple of events ended up more north than even the recent cycle or two of models before it showed Expand What do you think of the warm nose in terms of that TTN to SI line...wouldn't that argue for more sleet to rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 9:34 PM, weatherpruf said: If the warm nose is pronounced this will be another mostly sleet to rain event right? Can't catch a break. Expand Yes it will. The models always underestimate mid-level warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 9:34 PM, weatherpruf said: If the warm nose is pronounced this will be another mostly sleet to rain event right? Can't catch a break. Expand But unlike previous events there's enough low-level cold air to give us 4 or 5 hours of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 9:41 PM, Stormlover74 said: But unlike previous events there's enough low-level cold air to give us 4 or 5 hours of snow. Expand Surface cold means nothing if it’s too warm aloft. You will just go to sleet and freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 if this is another slop-fest of rain/slush, I'm going to write a letter and complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 9:35 PM, snowman19 said: Yes it will. The models always underestimate mid-level warming. Expand The models always underestimate llc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Para gfs is similiar to the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 9:49 PM, snowman19 said: Surface cold means nothing if it’s too warm aloft. You will just go to sleet and freezing rain Expand That doesn't mean we should assume the flip will happen immediately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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