MJO812 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: The winter of garbage and scraps continues. They'll just be enough future snowfall in the books to stay out of the top 10 lowest territory. But of course it'll all be gone in 12 hours anyway. If we get 3"+ then this winter will go from the worst I've experienced to the third worst. Take any snow you can get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 6z Euro has 3-5 for NYC Snow and sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowheavyattimes Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 18 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 6z Euro has 3-5 for NYC Snow and sleet I will definitely take that. But the way this winter is going I don’t believe it till I see it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 A couple of ensemble probability posts for tomorrows event. Big QPF and asstd bigger snowfall peels east somewhere near I80. 00z/19 EPS further N than 0z6/19 GEFS. 03z/19 SREF not that promising for NYC but i suspect 2-3" before the change to sleet etc. This is what I used for one of my local friend posts this morning. These probabilities can temper enthusiasm but are good AI checks against hope. Let the reality check occur by 6P Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Gonna go with based on what I've seen from yesterday, between 1-4" for my area. I think areas west of the GSP towards Manchester get closer to the 3-4". East of the GSP get around 2", and the barrier islands get around 1, maybe 2". I'm concerned that we may get a prolonged freezing rain or sleet event. Think that the cold is going to hold on longer at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 6z eps has 2-4 for the city 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Nam is further north with the precip and quicker Few inches for the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 3k Nam is also faster with the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 3k Nam is also faster with the precip 88 or anyone else , even if the precip comes faster ------> what about the dreaded mid levels ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nam is further north with the precip and quicker Few inches for the city Unfortunately, that trend is not good for me. Still holding on pretty well though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: 3k Nam is also faster with the precip 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: 3k Nam is also faster with the precip When would be the start time? Concerned about another November debacle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, Brasiluvsnow said: 88 or anyone else , even if the precip comes faster ------> what about the dreaded mid levels ? The faster the onset precip is the more frozen we will get. There is alot of cold air in place before it arrives. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, weatherpruf said: When would be the start time? Concerned about another November debacle 1pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: 1pm Oy not good every will be driving home in it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 28 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nam is further north with the precip and quicker Few inches for the city It continues to shear out the system later and later and we are seeing the usual north push this year. This time we started off far enough north that it works in our favor. There’s going to be some sort of banding with this as well in all likelihood as there usually is on the northern side of a snow shield in these setups. I’m becoming increasingly confident we could see 3-4 inches or more. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Gfs is still alot warmer and less snowy than the other models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Are the WRF models any reasonable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Based on this year so far I'm getting an inch or 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 10 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs is still alot warmer and less snowy than the other models. 88, all winter the long term models have not been much help and we all know how the short term models have been so yes I hope for snow but in the next breath I say we flip a coin . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Rgem has snow reaching the city by 11am, flips to sleet around 7. Looks like 2-3" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Rgem has snow reaching the city by 11am, flips to sleet around 7. Looks like 2-3" 74 , you sure about that timing as I just took a look at Rgem and am I mistaken or is it more like by late afternoon that it starts ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said: 74 , you sure about that timing as I just took a look at Rgem and am I mistaken or is it more like by late afternoon that it starts ???? It looks like 16z but could very well be virga the first few hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, Stormlover74 said: It looks like 16z but could very well be virga the first few hours Gotcha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 33 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: 74 , you sure about that timing as I just took a look at Rgem and am I mistaken or is it more like by late afternoon that it starts ???? Don’t forget that 16z is Zulu time, not 1600 our time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 29 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Don’t forget that 16z is Zulu time, not 1600 our time. THANKS Rob---exactly thats MY mistake I was thinking our time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 https://digital.weather.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said: Don’t forget that 16z is Zulu time, not 1600 our time. And further bear in mind that the relationship thereof changes in a few weeks, just to make sure none of us ever feel smart for too long. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Odd that Upton is so timid on this storm after being ridiculously bullish on last week's slizzard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Pretty quiet here when the euro looked wetter and brings .5” frozen close to NYC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Nice improvements on the 12Z Euro: 4-6" for most of CNJ/E PA and 3-4" for NYC/NE NJ (in Upton's CWA). 4" line runs from the NW Warren/Sussex border down to midtown Manhattan and then to JFK, roughly; a 2nd 4" line runs from about Baltimore to Wilmington and then over to about LBI, with everything in between those lines in the 4-6" swath in NJ and PA all the way out to Central PA (where it eventually gets to 6-8"). Like it. 3" line runs from about Middletown, NY to Stamford, CT and down to about Brookhaven, LI. As modeled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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