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OBS only thread Feb 17-18, 2019


wdrag

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23 minutes ago, dWave said:

Rain and sleet in the bx. 34 degrees. 

Had small hope of a coating of snow but not to be it seems. 

Rain/Snow/Sleet here, no accumulation. Temp still 34. Thought it would at least be a brief period of pure accumulating snow from the Bronx north but now thinking the entire city sees nothing.

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3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Rain/Snow/Sleet here, no accumulation. Temp still 34. Thought it would at least be a brief period of pure accumulating snow from the Bronx north but now thinking the entire city sees nothing.

It's not really doing anything here in the Bronx. Had a brief period of sleet. I thought we were looking at a 1-3/2-4 event around NYC's northern areas. Winter of 2018-19 continues its suckage.

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3 minutes ago, nzucker said:

It's not really doing anything here in the Bronx. Had a brief period of sleet. I thought we were looking at a 1-3/2-4 event around NYC's northern areas. Winter of 2018-19 continues its suckage.

Believe the main precip is still to the Southwest but even when it gets here if it does I'm not very excited, at best it's sleet  

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3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Believe the main precip is still to the Southwest but even when it gets here if it does I'm not very excited, at best it's sleet  

So far the precip shield is further south than I would have expected and very disorganized.  Many places in SNE, especially more inland will have problems getting amounts they expected based on what I’m seeing right now 

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4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

So far the precip shield is further south than I would have expected and very disorganized.  Many places in SNE, especially more inland will have problems getting amounts they expected based on what I’m seeing right now 

Yea precip too light to allow for any solid evaporational cooling. Still kind of hard to believe with a storm this weak though that it's 33 degrees and mainly raining where I am.

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13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

So far the precip shield is further south than I would have expected and very disorganized.  Many places in SNE, especially more inland will have problems getting amounts they expected based on what I’m seeing right now 

I agree. The mid-level dry slot is punching east very quickly, so it's going to be hard for a coherent precip shield to coalesce over SNY and WNE like the HRRR showed at 2z. I do think it's too early to write off a solid performer for southeastern New England... still a while to go before their fate is sealed.

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3 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

I agree. The mid-level dry slot is punching east very quickly, so it's going to be hard for a coherent precip shield to coalesce over SNY and WNE like the HRRR showed at 2z. I do think it's too early to write off a solid performer for southeastern New England... still a while to go before their fate is sealed.

CrankyWxGuy on Twitter is about as frustrated as me right now.  I’m glad that I didn’t make a forecast for this storm.  I nailed the November event and feel I’ve busted on everything since.  Thankfully none of the “busts” really had a big impact since none of the storms were anticipated to be a big deal anyhow 

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10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

CrankyWxGuy on Twitter is about as frustrated as me right now.  I’m glad that I didn’t make a forecast for this storm.  I nailed the November event and feel I’ve busted on everything since.  Thankfully none of the “busts” really had a big impact since none of the storms were anticipated to be a big deal anyhow 

Tonight was useful for me as my annual reminder to not take the HREF winter products seriously. It seems like once a year there's a borderline event like this where the SSEO/HREF is really bullish with its rates/accums probabilities, and you figure "well, maybe it's caught wind of something legitimate". Nope.

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