TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever

[jaxjagman]

I'll use the last RAP update where it actually shows the WF where it dropped acting more as a CF,but it's stationary once again but the WF that was suppose to be much further north isn't.The arrows i posted is an inverted trough.

[jaxjagman]

Using the WPC maps you can see the WF sagged southward more as a CF for a short while but is now stationary.Messy storm.

[jaxjagman]

The convection into Northern Ms is really picking up

 

http://en.blitzortung.org/live_lightning_maps.php?map=30

[jaxjagman]

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1122 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND FAR NORTHWEST
   ALABAMA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop today from
   the Arklatex region and lower to mid Mississippi Valley eastward
   into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Tornadoes, wind damage and
   isolated large hail will be possible across much of the area.

   ...Significant tornado and wind damage event expected across parts
   of the lower to mid Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys today...

   ...Arklatex/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley/Tennessee and Ohio
   Valleys...
   A well organized negatively-tilted upper-level trough will move
   across the southern Plains today as a 90 to 100 kt mid-level jet
   moves through the base of the trough. At the surface, a low will
   gradually deepen and move northeastward across the central Plains
   into the lower Missouri Valley. A surface trough is forecast to
   extend southward into the lower Mississippi Valley with a moist
   airmass located across the region. Surface dewpoints in the upper
   60s and lower 70s F will overspread northern Louisiana, southeast
   Arkansas and most of Mississippi by midday. At the start of the
   period, a cluster of thunderstorms should be ongoing from northern
   Mississippi into western and middle Tennessee. The stronger storms
   embedded in the cluster may have an isolated severe threat. This
   activity is forecast to move northeastward away the moderate risk
   area allowing for the moist sector to warm up late this morning. In
   response, a corridor of moderate instability is expected to be in
   place by midday from northeast Louisiana into far southeast Arkansas
   and western Tennessee. As large-scale ascent increases ahead of the
   southern Plains upper-level trough, thunderstorms are forecast to
   develop during the morning along the surface trough in the Arklatex
   with this convection moving northeastward into southeastern Arkansas
   by midday. More isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the
   moist sector from northern Louisiana into north-central Mississippi.
   During the early to mid afternoon, convective coverage should
   increase with scattered thunderstorms moving east-northeastward
   across the Enhanced and Moderate Risk areas.

   RAP forecast soundings across the Moderate Risk area from
   north-central Mississippi into southwest Tennessee at 21Z show
   moderate instability and impressive kinematic profiles. MLCAPE is
   forecast to be from 1000 to 1200 J/kg with 0-6 km shear in the 50 to
   55 kt range. This will support supercell formation with cells that
   remain discrete. In addition, hodographs are long and looped with
   0-3 km storm relative helicity values in the 350 to 450 m2/s2 range.
   This low-level shear environment will be favorable for tornadoes. A
   potential for long-track significant tornadoes will exist across the
   Moderate Risk area from late this morning through much of the
   afternoon. Wind damage and isolated large hail will also be possible
   with supercells. A squall-line is also expected to develop and move
   across the Enhanced and Moderate risk areas during the late
   afternoon and early evening. Wind damage, isolated large hail and a
   few tornadoes will also be possible with the stronger thunderstorms
   embedded in the line. This squall-line with wind damage potential
   should move across middle Tennessee and north-central Alabama during
   the evening.

   Further north across the Ohio Valley, scattered thunderstorms are
   forecast to move northeastward into western Kentucky and southern
   Indiana during the afternoon. Forecast soundings at 21Z for Paducah
   show MLCAPE near 800 J/kg with 0-6 km shear of 65 kt. This combined
   with strong low-level shear will be sufficient for severe storms
   capable of producing tornadoes and wind damage. Most of the severe
   convection should remain south of the Ohio River. Due to the weaker
   instability in the Ohio Valley, severe coverage is expected to be
   less.

   ..Broyles/Bentley.. 02/23/2019

[jaxjagman]

You don't see that to many times in winter time.Not only a tornado threat but the wind alone with  all the rain fall has the potential to look like a war zone.Like i said earlier in the severe thread,trees will topple down very easily as it roots don't have nothing to hold onto,dangerous storm none the less

[John1122]

Saw that Tri-Cities set the record today for rain for the month. Already significantly over with more to come. 

[jaxjagman]

The WF is finally lifting

[TellicoWx]

[TellicoWx]

The recent radar trends have been favoring the heaviest axis of
rainfall a bit to the south and east of the 00Z HREF mean
including recent HRRR runs. Adjusting for this, and accounting for
the organized nature of the convection (with aid of 50 to 60 kt
effective bulk shear values), it would appear that the heaviest
axis of rainfall going through the mid-morning hours will tend to
be oriented more to the east-northeast from northern MS and
northern AL over through south-central TN. Although, it appears
that heavy rainfall with bit less intensity will also overspread
eastern TN over the next several hours. Also, areas of far
northwest GA and far southwest NC may see some period of heavy
rain as well.

The hires multi-model suite of guidance would support additional
rainfall amounts as high as 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts
near 5 inches going through 15Z.

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Ah firehose, how I've missed you. Looks like the NAM muffed this one yesterday for E TN. The RGEM did a little better and sadly as of the 6z run keeps the rain going all day long (small break around 3 -5 PM maybe) until the cold front and storms finally pass. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
603 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

TNC055-099-181-231300-
/O.CON.KOHX.FF.W.0017.000000T0000Z-190223T1300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wayne TN-Lawrence TN-Giles TN-
603 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CST FOR
WAYNE...LAWRENCE AND GILES COUNTIES...

At 601 AM CST, local law enforcement reported a water rescue of a
family from a home in the Prospect community of southern Giles
County. Radar indicates moderate to heavy rain continues across the
warned area this morning, with additional showers and thunderstorms
extending well off to the southwest through northwest Alabama and
northern Mississippi. Flash flooding is expected to continue for
several more hours.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Lawrenceburg, Pulaski, Waynesboro, Loretto, Collinwood, Summertown,
Clifton, Ardmore, St. Joseph, Elkton, Minor Hill, Ethridge,
Lynnville, Henryville, Cypress Inn, Flatwoods, Lutts, Goodspring,
Leoma and Westpoint.

This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 1 and 22.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

For posterity, the whole valley just looks ugly this AM:

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

6z Euro

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Much of central E TN now upgraded to a flood warning.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Not only is I 40 closed now, but also 441 Newfound Gap:

 

No explanation that I can find on the NP website or GSMNP road specific twitter account. 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Looks like it is all trying to lift out, but I'm not real happy with the orientation the band is taking:

 

And look at those storms popping around Arklatex....

[janetjanet998]

The little Tallahachie  river at Elta MS ( out of TVA area), is now above record stage... 30.54 and still climbing..records go back to at least 1973 

 

29 The post office and businesses and homes in the low lying area near the river in New Albany are flooded. Several homes along County Highway 46 are flooded. Flood water is covering County Highways 46 and 47. flood waters are approaching the level of Highway 355 near Etta

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Urban flooding in N Knoxville now. Just saw video of a section of road completely submerged and a fire truck half covered in water and tipping over

[janetjanet998]

14 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Urban flooding in N Knoxville now. Just saw video of a section of road completely submerged and a fire truck half covered in water and tipping over

Heavy steady (not not excessive rates  yet) rains the past 6 hours.   2.17 inches

time and per hr rainfall
23    07:53       0.42        
23    06:53       0.38       
23    05:53       0.40        
23    04:53       0.27        
23    03:53       0.33            
23    02:53       0.26          
23    01:53       0.11    

 

[janetjanet998]

Lake  cumberland rise lake increasing....steadty moderate rains...no change to outflow

up 1.37 feet or .057/hr last 24 hours ending at 4am  2.4 feet from record...should break late this evening

 

 

2/23/2019    3 AM    749.00     34,360 +.05
2/23/2019    4 AM    749.08    34,460  +.08
2/23/2019    5 AM    749.21    34,520  +.13
2/23/2019    6 AM    749.32    34,540  +.11

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1st and 3rd creeks look ugly. Pics soon. 

[ShawnEastTN]

Went to bed it wasnt even raining. Thought well it won't be that bad. Wake up yard is flooded, rain gauge showing 2.89" since midnight.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[Save the itchy algae!]

44 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

Heavy steady (not not excessive rates  yet) rains the past 6 hours.   2.17 inc

time and per hr rainfall
23    07:53       0.42        
23    06:53       0.38       
23    05:53       0.40        
23    04:53       0.27        
23    03:53       0.33            
23    02:53       0.26          
23    01:53       0.11    

 

 

The airport has been just east of the heaviest axis of precipitation, though it's catching up now.  In west Knox I've past 4 inches in the rain gauge this morning alone.  It's excessive.  For locals:

The entrance and exit to I-40/75 @ Campbell Station rd is underwater and impassible.  Lovell Road is still passable.

I-40/75 itself has standing water on the left lane, there are many emergency vehicles out

Turkey Creek has flooded its banks along Campbell Station rd, the bridge at Turkey Creek rd is almost breached as well as the bridge at Kingston Pike.

 

[Save the itchy algae!]

I have to head out in a couple hours, will take some pictures if I can.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

First creek as it spills into the Tennessee:

 

Several images from First, Second, and third creeks:

First creek is out of its banks in places and covering 6th ave. Police are stationed there to keep people out. Third is running over Tyson Park and Concord Ave. The entire playground is partially under water.

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

8 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Thought well it won't be that bad. Wake up yard is flooded, rain gauge showing 2.89" since midnight.

Yeah, I thought we'd dodged the bullet here after watching the models yesterday. If some of those training storms right now over W. TN consolidate into some sort of a new firehose and training line, it will not be good. 

RGEM kind of shows that and HRRR, as poor as its placement with precip and evolution has been, is starting to hint at it too. 

[Save the itchy algae!]

It's a small sample size, but in the 4 years I've lived here this is the rainiest day I've seen and it's only 9:30

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I remember in maybe 2011, Broadway near downtown turned into a river. This event is trying it's hardest. 

[janetjanet998]

7 minutes ago, Save the itchy algae! said:

It's a small sample size, but in the 4 years I've lived here this is the rainiest day I've seen and it's only 9:30

Knoxville

Highest rainfall total in one day

6.14"July 16, 1917

as luck would have it timing wise........ it started raining hard at midnight..and the ending frontal storms should hit about midnight

2.60 as of 9am (.42 last hr)