TellicoWx Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 I'm not sure what is going wrong in the models (whether its something in the coding..etc), but even the initializations are off on the hi res short range. We have seen it all winter in the med to long range models. Perfect example of the chaos theory in action...bad initialization = compounded variation in error as time goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 The WF is finally lifting.It's been stuck down South of the valley since last evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected Saturday from a portion of the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and possibly into western and central Kentucky. Damaging wind and tornadoes are the main threats, but hail is also possible. ...Synopsis... By 12Z Saturday, lee cyclogenesis will be well underway over the southern High Plains in association with a potent southern-stream shortwave trough now located over AZ. This feature will continue into the southern and central Plains and then northeastward into the middle MS Valley tomorrow. By later Saturday afternoon the cyclone will be located over MO with a cold front trailing southward through AR and LA. A warm front should extend southeastward from the low through western KY into middle TN and GA. The surface low will occlude over the Great Lakes while the trailing front reaches the central and southern Appalachians by the end of the period. ...Lower Mississippi through Tennessee Valley regions... As of mid day a quasi-stationary front extends from the northwest Gulf through southern portions of the Gulf Coast states. Rich low-level moisture with upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints resides south of this front. Farther north a rain-cooled boundary stretches from northeast TX through northern portions of MS, AL and GA. A broad southerly low-level jet will increase tonight over the lower MS Valley within the gradient zone between retreating high pressure and the developing lee cyclone. This will promote northward advance of the warm front that will eventually merge with the rain-cooled boundary farther north. This consolidated boundary should reach central AR and western TN later Saturday morning, possibly continuing as far north as western KY during the afternoon. Primary uncertainty this forecast is degree and northward extent of boundary layer destabilization, especially through west and central KY. Most recent model runs including the CAMs suggest that much of KY will be affected by areas of widespread rain and clouds within zone of isentropic ascent north of the warm front, with only a small window for modest surface-based destabilization before cold frontal passage. The RAP, being the outlier, advances the unstable warm sector farther north. In either case, feel that at least a slight risk is warranted as far north as KY given the favorable kinematic environment and some potential for surface-based destabilization. Otherwise, a corridor of modest surface-based instability (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected to evolve in warm sector over the lower MS and western TN Valleys within zone of theta-e advection along the strengthening low-level jet. A band of thunderstorms will likely develop within this warm conveyor belt along and just ahead of the cold front from AR into LA by late morning and continue east during the afternoon. A strong mid-level jet rotating through base of the shortwave trough, coupled with the strengthening 50+ kt low-level jet, will promote very favorable wind profiles for severe storms. Large 0-2 km hodographs and 50+ kt effective bulk shear will support supercells with low-level mesocyclones and bowing structures capable of tornadoes and damaging wind, with peak period from afternoon into early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 22, 2019 Author Share Posted February 22, 2019 lake Cumberland getting a train of Moderate rain now...models increase the rates overnight in this band (or reform it),,location is the only question...flood warnings for the eastern part of the watershed from rainfall this morning.. (up to an inch) 2/22/2019 8 AM 747.88 35,960 +.04 2/22/2019 9 AM 747.98 35,960 +.10 2/22/2019 10 AM 748.00 35,960 +.02 2/22/2019 11 AM 748.05 35,960 +.05 2/22/2019 noon 748.10 35,960 +.05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 22, 2019 Author Share Posted February 22, 2019 BNA MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN IS STILL SOUTH OF I-40 AND WEST OF I-24 WHERE THE BULK OF THE RAIN IS FALLING THIS MORNING. TO THIS POINT, WE'VE BEEN SPARED ANY EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN BY THE FACT THAT WE REMAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT, WHICH IS STILL WAY DOWN IN CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS IS KEEPING THE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF US ALONG WITH THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER, THIS IS GOING TO BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD. CONVECTION WILL BE OUR BIGGEST ENEMY IN THIS SITUATION BECAUSE IT MEANS RAIN RATES WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM WHAT IS 0.5-1.0 IN/HR (WHICH IS CLOSE TO MANAGEABLE) TO 1.0-2.0 IN/HR OR MORE. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL BIG PICTURE. THIS MORNING'S RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHWEST IS ONLY GOING TO SERVE TO EXACERBATE THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHEN THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. IN THE MEANTIME, IF ANY CONVECTION STARTS, FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE LIKELY TO COME OUT QUICKER. THIS REMAINS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. IF YOU HAVEN'T DONE IT ALREADY, PLEASE DEVELOP A PLAN SO THAT YOU AND YOUR LOVED ONES HAVE HIGHER GROUND TO RETREAT TO IF FLASH FLOODING BEGINS IN YOUR AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 I’m not as educated on this stuff as most of y’all, but it seems like this isn’t materializing much over the valley today. Barely been drizzling much of the morning in Athens. Just mostly drizzle to light rain in Knoxville for the most part. Knock on wood but we have escaped the major flooding to this point. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Pretty impressive state wide totals. I'm at 12.39 as of right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 22, 2019 Author Share Posted February 22, 2019 22 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Just mostly drizzle to light rain in Knoxville for the most part. Knock on wood but we have escaped the major flooding to this point. . HRRR, RAP and 18z NAM products lift the WF north of you without much rain really...everything NW,,,likely too far NW 18z NAMnest destroys the TN/KY state line..NAM central KY 18z RAP clueless 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 MRX is forecasting 2 more inches tonight for me. The hi-res short term models are having epic struggles with this system. Way under doing precip amounts and even initializing incorrectly with precip placement and intensity. The long range globals and the lower res NAM products seem to be doing the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 22, 2019 Author Share Posted February 22, 2019 REA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 212 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2019 ...POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING... DISCUSSION LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO MIDDLE TN AT FORECAST TIME. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE WARM FRONT, CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM WEST TO EAST OVER CENTRAL MS AND AL, IS STARTING TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE MID-STATE AT THIS HOUR. AS IT APPROACHES THE AL-TN STATE LINE THIS EVENING, ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND PLENTY OF CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL SPUR HEAVY RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN. PW VALUES THAT ARE UNHEARD OF THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY MOISTURE AND IT'S DURING THIS TIME, WHEN WE START TO SEE SOME WARM FRONT-INDUCED CONVECTION BEGIN, THAT IS OUR MAIN CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING. THE PROBLEM IS, IT'S GOING TO BE DURING HOURS OF DARKNESS. THIS PRESENTS ADDED ISSUES WHEN DEALING WITH FLASH FLOODING: YOU CAN'T SEE IT COMING. THE AREA(S) OF CONCERN HAVE NOT CHANGED. THOSE SOUTH OF I-40 AND WEST OF I-24 HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT DUE TO THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. I CAN'T STRESS THIS ENOUGH: IF YOU DON'T HAVE A PLAN IN PLACE ALREADY, NOW IS THE TIME TO DO IT. IF YOU LIVE IN AN AREA THAT IS ALREADY FLOODED OR YOU KNOW IT CAN FLOOD QUICKLY, HAVE A PLACE OF HIGHER GROUND WHERE YOU CAN GO IN A HURRY TO ESCAPE RISING FLOOD WATERS. PLAN, THEN ACT. DON'T REACT. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE MID-STATE BEFORE THE NOON HOUR TOMORROW. WHILE SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, IT'S MORE LIKELY THAT WE'LL SEE SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK FROM THE RAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE ANY THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE BIG QUESTION OF THE FORECAST: HOW MUCH OF A BREAK CAN WE GET? IS THERE ANY CHANCE WE SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS? AND EVEN IF WE DON'T SEE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, WILL THE WARM AIR ADVECTION START EARLY ENOUGH AND BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INSTABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW EVENING? BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE WAA WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING 500-800 J/KG INTO AREAS OF MIDDLE TN SOUTH OF I-40 AND WEST OF I-65. THIS IS TROUBLESOME BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THAT WILL BE AROUND. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS HAVE QUITE THE CURVE IN THEM IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, BUT IF WE DON'T REALIZE THE INSTABILITY, WE'RE MOST LIKELY GOING TO BE DEALING WITH A BROKEN QLCS THAT WILL HAVE EMBEDDED ROTATION. ALL OF THAT SAID, HERE'S THE KICKER: WE DON'T NEED WINDS OF 60-70 MPH TO HAVE PROBLEMS TOMORROW EVENING. AS WET AS THE GROUND IS AND WILL BE, WINDS OF 40-50 MPH ARE LIKELY TO TOPPLE TREES JUST AS EASY. SO, NO MATTER THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM, IF WE DO SEE ANY WINDS TOMORROW EVENING, IT'LL LIKELY BE A LONG NIGHT. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO DEW POINTS IN THE MORNING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MS AND NORTHERN AL. IF THEY START CREEPING TOWARDS 55-60 DEGREES, THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THAT MUCH GREATER HERE IN MIDDLE TN. HERE'S THE GOOD NEWS IN ALL OF THIS: MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING AT LEAST 3 DRY DAYS AFTER THIS IS ALL OVER. I'M GOING TO CARRY VERY SMALL POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON AS THE GFS AND EURO CONTINUE TO HOLD THEIR GROUND WITH VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. IF THE EURO VERIFIES, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT 5+ DAYS OF DRY WEATHER. FINGERS CROSSED... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 22, 2019 Author Share Posted February 22, 2019 Top 5 crest now expected at Cairo and Paducah on the OHIO 56.5 cario and 53.5 at Paducah this is all depended if the heavy rain one make it more north I think...if not they will be lower they are dumping huge amounts out of the Kentucky Lake and Barkley but they have no choice... 420,000 cfs!! ---------------------------------------- Lake Cumberland 2/22/2019 2 PM 748.20 36,200. +.06 2/22/2019 3 PM 748.26 36,200. +.06 2/22/2019 4 PM 748.30 36,220. +.04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 23, 2019 Author Share Posted February 23, 2019 TN River at Savannah forecast crest now 393.81. which would be 3rd all time 1) 401.20 ft on 03/21/1897 (2) 396.11 ft on 03/20/1973 (3) 392.70 ft on 01/02/1927 (4) 392.42 ft on 02/06/1957 (5) 392.29 ft on 02/16/1948 (6) 391.61 ft on 01/13/1946 (7) 390.70 ft on 05/12/2003 (8) 390.42 ft on 12/12/2004 (9) 389.05 ft on 04/10/1936 (10) 389.00 ft on 01/14/1974 392 Second floor of houses on stilts is flooding all along the river. North end of Dorthy Lane at Campsite is beginning to flood. Many houses are flooded at Campsite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 23, 2019 Author Share Posted February 23, 2019 23Z HRRR very is scary for central and SW TN including nashville....the current training band of light-moderate rain turns into training storms 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 23Z HRRR very is scary for central and SW TN including nashville....the current training band of light-moderate rain turns into training storms Looks like the rain is already north of 40 in ETn unless it redevelops south. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 00z shifted south some on the HRRR...i fear some have let their guard down too soon (including myself). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Fairly significant shift south on the 00z NAM as well. 18z was up into KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 00z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 NAM shows a PDS around Memphis around 3PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Just now, jaxjagman said: NAM shows a PDS around Memphis around 3PM Wow...i feel for you guys put in W TN...flooding, then severe ramping up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 There looks to be a big tornado threat along the Ms./Tn border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 3k hammers southern border of TN/Plateau/into E TN...storms training same areas over and over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 9 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: There looks to be a big tornado threat along the Ms./Tn border Do you think the atmosphere can rebound that much after being worked over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 4 pm, 3k. Still have the severe line of storms in W TN to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Do you think the atmosphere can rebound that much after being worked over? They have the Triple point on the side,it's up in the air for us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Rock slide on I40 at MM 7.5 on the NC side. 40 is closed in both directions. I havent seen any other details on how long the cleanup will take. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Norris Dam reporting record breaking inflow into the lake of 66,000 cubic feet per second (500,000 gallons per second). They are currently releasing 14,000 CFS and the lake is at summer full pool and rising rapidly, expected to rise 6 feet in the next 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 16 minutes ago, Wurbus said: Rock slide on I40 at MM 7.5 on the NC side. 40 is closed in both directions. I havent seen any other details on how long the cleanup will take. Closed until at least sunrise...Geologist has to arrive. NCDOT Cam 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0065 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1045 PM EST Fri Feb 22 2019 Areas affected...Southeast AR...Northern MS...Far Northwest AL...Southwest to South-Central TN Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 230345Z - 230945Z Summary...There will be concerns for life-threatening/significant flooding and flash flooding overnight as additional rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms arrive over exceedingly wet/saturated soil conditions. Discussion...The large scale synoptic pattern features a deep trough and associated closed low beginning to exit the Four Corners region and moving out across the southern High Plains. Downstream of this is a deep layer warm advection pattern over the Lower MS Valley with a strong subtropical jet oriented southwest/northeast from the eastern Pacific up across the northwest Gulf of Mexico and across the Mid-South. Meanwhile, a quasi-stationary frontal zone is draped across the Gulf Coast states. There continues to be more than enough forcing in place for numerous showers and thunderstorms across areas of the Lower MS Valley and Mid-South as persistent southwest low level flow in the 850/925 mb overruns the front and transports plenty of moisture and instability in an elevated fashion. Additionally, much of this region is situated underneath favorable right-entrance region jet dynamics which is fostering deep layer ascent in conjunction with favorable thermodynamics. The latest radar imagery is showing heavy showers and thunderstorms beginning to gradually become better organized/focused again over areas of southeast AR and up across northern MS. Cloud top cooling seen in GOES-16 IR satellite imagery is suggestive of stronger forcing and most likely related to not only an increase in divergent flow aloft, but also strengthening of the low level jet. Hires models from the 00Z cycle, including numerous runs of the HRRR, support an axis of training showers and thunderstorms going through 09Z across especially areas of southeast AR, northern MS, and into areas of southwest to south-central TN. This will be supported by largely unidirectional flow in the 850/500 mb layer, but one major contributing factor to the rainfall threat overnight will be the increasing low level jet which is forecast to reach upwards of 50 kts across northern MS by 09Z. Enhanced moisture transport will result from this and the PWATs are forecast to rise to locally over 1.75 inches. Radar trends tend to favor the QPF axis of the 00Z ARW and last couple runs of the HRRR a bit more versus the 00Z ARW2/NAM-conest solutions, and the MPD threat area closely follows a consensus of these solutions for this period. Very heavy rainfall totals overnight are expected, with as much as an additional 3 to 5 inches of rain expected. In fact, the latest HREF probabilistic output favors rainfall rates approaching 2 inches/hr within the stronger convective elements. Unfortunately, the soil conditions are saturated and there are already locally significant runoff problems/flooding ongoing. The additional rainfall tonight will only exacerbate the situation further and it appears that life-threatening/significant flooding and flash flooding will be likely. Will continue to monitor the situation closely. Orrison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Sometimes a pic is better than a model. This image of the SE radars tells alot. You can see the surface front drifting north over north central AL/GA, surging the moisture north (light blue shading near the radar sights south of the front. The 850 front drapped sw-ne across MS to the N Plateau. Where the surface front catches the 850 front...its unloading a tremendous amount of the gulf moisture. Very bad setup...anywhere N of the entire southern TN border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 9 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Sometimes a pic is better than a model. This image of the SE radars tells alot. You can see the surface front drifting north, surging the moisture north (light blue shading near the radar sights south of the front. The 850 front drapped sw-ne across MS to the N Plateau. Where the surface front catches the 850 front...its unloading a tremendous amount of the gulf moisture. Very bad setup...anywhere N of the entire southern TN border. Actually what you see is from an Inverted trough,the WF that was suppose to lift is still in Central Alabama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now