Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Looking at radar, it looks like some areas may have absolutely no trouble hitting an inch in 3 hours this evening. 16 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: The aforementioned offices indicated that as little as 1.00 inches of rainfall in three hours could have significant impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Flood Watch National Weather Service Nashville TN 302 PM CST Thu Feb 21 2019 ...Potentially Life-Threatening Flash Flooding Possible... . More heavy rain is on tap for Middle TN starting tonight. Multiple waves of heavy rain will bring 3 to 5 inches to the mid- state between tonight and Saturday night. The main concern will start after midnight tonight as areas that experienced widespread flooding Wednesday could see 2 to 3 inches of this rain on Friday alone. Folks who live in southwest portions of Middle TN, including those west of I-24 and south of I-40 need to have a plan in place now in case the need arises to evacuate to higher ground. Please don`t take this lightly. Have somewhere to go at a moment`s notice to escape flood waters. TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-220600- /O.EXT.KOHX.FF.A.0003.190221T2102Z-190224T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston- Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith- Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson- Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford- Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles- Including the cities of Dover, Clarksville, Springfield, Hendersonville, Gallatin, Goodlettsville, Lafayette, Celina, Byrdstown, Erin, Waverly, New Johnsonville, McEwen, Dickson, Ashland City, Kingston Springs, Nashville, Lebanon, Mount Juliet, Hartsville, Carthage, South Carthage, Gordonsville, Gainesboro, Cookeville, Livingston, Jamestown, Allardt, Linden, Lobelville, Centerville, Hohenwald, Franklin, Brentwood, Columbia, Lewisburg, Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne, Woodbury, Smithville, Sparta, Crossville, Shelbyville, Tullahoma, Manchester, McMinnville, Altamont, Coalmont, Spencer, Clifton, Waynesboro, Lawrenceburg, and Pulaski 302 PM CST Thu Feb 21 2019 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for * A portion of Middle Tennessee, including the following areas, Bedford, Cannon, Cheatham, Clay, Coffee, Cumberland, Davidson, De Kalb, Dickson, Fentress, Giles, Grundy, Hickman, Houston, Humphreys, Jackson, Lawrence, Lewis, Macon, Marshall, Maury, Montgomery, Overton, Perry, Pickett, Putnam, Robertson, Rutherford, Smith, Stewart, Sumner, Trousdale, Van Buren, Warren, Wayne, White, Williamson, and Wilson. * Through Saturday evening * An additional 3 to 5 inches of rain with locally higher amounts is expected in the watch area. * Potentially life-threatening flooding will be possible, especially early Friday morning through Friday night. * If you live near a stream, creek or river that you know floods easily, please have a plan in place now to evacuate in the event flood waters begin to rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 4 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Looking at radar, it looks like some areas may have absolutely no trouble hitting an inch in 3 hours this evening. HRRR is initializing too low even for the rain here in the last hour. Doesn't have an accumulation until after midnight, picked up .23". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Yeah, first thing I did when I saw that radar was look at the HRRR and thought, "seriously?" NAM has some areas getting to an inch by 10 tonight and even that looks low compared to the actual radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 For posterity, just an amazing number of watches/ warnings for individual rivers in E. TN: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 From OHX AFD, just wow...not too many times seen one wrote like this This isn`t a forecast discussion I write lightly. After yesterday`s widespread flooding across all of Middle TN, even with the 18 hour break in rainfall, the addition of even another 1 to 1.5 inches is going to create some major issues. The problem is, we`re now forecasting 1 to 3 inches of rain just through tomorrow afternoon and a total of 3 to 5 inches from tonight through Saturday night. The highest amounts are currently thought to fall across southwest portions of Middle TN, basically west of I-24 and south of I-40. While there were already swift water rescues yesterday, this amount of rainfall is likely to cause more of the same and probably even cause some people to be thinking about a plan to evacuate. This needs to be your focus prior tonight. If you live near a stream or a creek or a river that you know floods easily, you need to have a plan in place to evacuate and get to higher ground in the event waters begin to rise as this has the makings of a life-threatening situation. The main time of concern begins early tomorrow morning, runs right through most of the day tomorrow and probably won`t let up much, if at all, tomorrow night. While there is a severe weather threat Saturday evening across the mid-state, the focus right now needs to be the extreme amount of rainfall we`re expecting. Please don`t take this lightly. Have a plan in place now so you can evacuate to higher ground quickly, if need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 21, 2019 Author Share Posted February 21, 2019 4 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Looks like Cumberland Falls flow has increased dramatically since I was there last week Much higher and there won't be a waterfall anymore. If you've never been there it's hard to express how high the water would hav to be. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 21, 2019 Author Share Posted February 21, 2019 it looks like Corps is finally seeing what I was pointing out and have increased outflows from the Lake Cumberland to 33K..will they keep it up as the system moves in though? On the Friday media report they said they will only increase to 35,000 cfs when "conditions allow" to help downstream flooding....that means they wouldn't do it with heavy rains in the forecast I wonder what changed..mmmmmmm..believe me that they don't want this water going down the river at this point unless they have too for a reason 2/21/2019 noon 746.35 29,380 +.15 2/21/2019 1 PM 746.50 30,700. +.15 2/21/2019 2 PM 746.65 33,060. +.15 this should have been done earlier IMO..Friday they said it would take 48 hours to build a flood wall....so Monday or Tuesday they should have been ready to increase but they dropped it to 25K instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 From OHX: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 From OHX: They drew that graphic all the way into MRX area I'm in their concern area.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 5 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: They drew that graphic all the way into MRX area I'm in their concern area. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk They went into HUN area as well, from reading the AFD, I believe they are trying to reach as many as possible regardless of CWA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Coosa River in Rome, GA close to topping its banks and spilling into the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Alabama Power opening flood gates now along the Coosa. People coming to the spillways to film and take pictures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 They went into HUN area as well, from reading the AFD, I believe they are trying to reach as many as possible regardless of CWA.Yeah now that you mention it they drew into MEG also. Interesting usually they stop short of crossing into neighboring CWAs, or just barely draw into a neighbor but the definitely didn't use that restraint in that graphic.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 16 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: Yeah now that you mention it they drew into MEG also. Interesting usually they stop short of crossing into neighboring CWAs, or just barely draw into a neighbor but the definitely didn't use that restraint in that graphic. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk MRX now updated the Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Update to MRX FFW for E TN: * Additional periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will overspread the region tonight, lasting through Saturday morning. Rainfall totals ranging from 2 to 3 inches are expected with isolated higher amounts closer to 4 inches possible. * Given the already saturated soil and high stream flows, the additional moderate to heavy rains will likely cause significant stream flooding, roadway flooding, mud slides, and main stem river flooding. Potentiallly life threatening flooding is possible. * If you live near a stream, creek or river that typically floods easily, please have a plan in place now to evacuate in the event of flood waters begin to rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 MRX: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 MRX: Honestly I cannot remember ever reading a forecast or graphic that included “potentially life threatening” for heavy rain including landslides in ETn CWA and I’m 44. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Honestly I cannot remember ever reading a forecast or graphic that included “potentially life threatening” for heavy rain including landslides in ETn CWA and I’m 44. .I was thinking the same thing. Strong language, they are definitely taking it seriously for sure. Though IMBY, I cannot remember a wetter winter either. Just since last Friday IMBY I've recorded 5.3" of rain, of course that's on top of all the wet weather before. I think it is an exceptional situation considering the time of the year with no plant life to assist in taking in that water from the soil. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 00z 3k is prob worst case scenario for SE TN. Models all day have underperformed here... .6" so far. 3k spits out close to 3" by noon tomorrow and front still stalled south of the area, overrunning precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 22, 2019 Author Share Posted February 22, 2019 19 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: 00z 3k is prob worst case scenario for SE TN. Models all day have underperformed here... .6" so far. 3k spits out close to 3" by noon tomorrow and front still stalled south of the area, overrunning precip. 12z and 18z NAM products= bad 00z = "hold my beer" all depends on placement ..and nowcasting.....NAM with a stripe of 6- 7 inches from Northern MS into TN ..the odd part is it has very little precip in that area thru 06z ..yet heavy rain there now Namnest actually keeps a lot of the max precip south and west of the TVA watershed (west Tn and N MS) no update from TVA about Cumberland since 2..but NWS river data suggest rate of rise slowing to perhaps .1 an hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Most of the globals did not have a good handle on the rain this evening even as late as the 12z runs today. GFS had me at around 0.10" by this time. I'm quickly closing in on 1". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 1.26" so far and still moderate rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 It's just pouring cats and dogs out there right now, the fire hose is aimed right up into my back yard and down across southern Middle Tennessee. I live very near the divide, where the runoff either flows into the Tennessee river, or the Cumberland River. Two creeks behind my house flow into the Cumberland eventually and a three more meet just a few hundred yards away and they form a larger one that eventually drains into the Tennessee. Looking at the HRRR the flow from Southern Middle up the Plateau looks to continue for the next 18 hours almost unabated. Even with that said, it didn't initialize very well, it didn't show my area getting rain right now but I'm getting pounded. The 06z RGEM really brings the heavy stuff. The NAM 3K is the lightest, but I'll go ahead and declare it wrong immediately. I've had as almost as much rain since 1am when it initialized as it shows falling here for the next 60 hours. It only shows .6 or .7 here during that entire span. I'm getting training 35-40 dbz for the last hour and a half. That's about .35 or so inches of rain per hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 22, 2019 Author Share Posted February 22, 2019 they have increased outflow at Wolf Creek up to 39,000 at one point. (all time record 40K)...this has slowed the rise and so far no heavy rain is helping too lake up another 2.71 feet the past 24 hours an average of .0112 per hour..at 4am the lake is .67 feet behind my "overflow post" and not rising the .12 per hour for today....so things looking better...I think they got more aggressive with the outflows when crunching numbers...they implied a week ago ago they had plenty of flood storage and wouldn't increase to 35.000 until it stopped raining...so something changed 2/22/2019 1 AM 747.52 35,860 2/22/2019 2 AM 747.58 35,860 +.06 2/22/2019 3 AM 747.65 39,860 +.07 2/22/2019 4 AM 747.71 35,860 +.06 2/22/2019 5 AM 747.76 35,960 +.05 2/22/2019 6 AM 747.81 35,960 +.05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Outstanding job by the lock operators along Ft. Loudon lake. Tellico River has yet to reach Flood Stage. If someone had told me at the beggining we would be sitting at 6.3" by Friday morning and the river wouldn't flood, I would have thought they were silly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 I’m not as educated on this stuff as most of y’all, but it seems like this isn’t materializing much over the valley today. Barely been drizzling much of the morning in Athens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 22, 2019 Author Share Posted February 22, 2019 seems hr focus is a little more west for now EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 957 AM EST FRI FEB 22 2019 DAY 1 VALID 15Z FRI FEB 22 2019 - 12Z SAT FEB 23 2019 ...A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF MS, AR, AL AND TN... 15Z UPDATE: LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL AXIS AND METEOROLOGICAL SETUP WITH RESPECT TO CURRENT HIGH RISK. HOWEVER, RECENT TRENDS IN GOES-16, REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC, AND SURFACE/VWP OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST GREATER MOISTURE FLUX/CONVERGENCE UPSTREAM AS FAR WEST AS EXTREME EASTERN TX. HI-RES CAMS PARTICULARLY THE HRRR AND ARW/ARW2/NMMB ALSO INDICATE THIS INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TRAINING ALONG THE 850MB BOUNDARY, EVENTUALLY TRAINING INTO AREAS ALREADY AFFECTED OVERNIGHT IN SE AR AND N MS. WHILE, ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE A BIT DRIER OVER E TX, N LA, SW AR, THIS GROWING QPF SIGNAL AND DEEP MOISTURE FLUX (AND MULTIPLE ROUNDS THIS MORNING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT) SUPPORT A WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE SLIGHT RISK TO THE TX/LA BORDER. ADDITIONALLY, THE HIGH RISK WAS PULLED WESTWARD, AS WELL, CLIPPING SE AR, WHERE THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN ACTIVE FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS. THE MODERATE RISK WAS PULLED BACK TO THE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Hatchie river in my neck off the woods is scheduled to be at 18.5 by Sunday morning. At 19ft the river starts to flood houses along river road in hardeman county. If we get to 19ft it could get ugly for a lot of people on or along the Hatchie River. Stay safe this weekend guys/gals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 22, 2019 Author Share Posted February 22, 2019 so far no heavy rain Current State of Lake Cumberland FEBRUARY 22, 2019 LEAVE A COMMENT The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers continues to monitor stream conditions throughout the Cumberland River Basin and to manage the release of water from its 10 dams, including Wolf Creek Dam on Lake Cumberland, as heavy rain continues to impact the region this week.The basin has received two to five inches of rain over the past four days, four to seven inches of rain over the past seven days, and seven to 12 inches of rain over the past month. The latest forecast from the National Weather Service calls for three to four inches of rainfall in the next 72 hours. At this time, long-term forecasts are more positive with little precipitation expected beyond the next 72 hours. Lake Cumberland’s elevation is was over 746 at the last Corps report late Thursday afternoon. The flood control pool extends from elevation 723 to 760 and is currently 60 percent full. The Corps says the lake will continue to rise for the next several days ahead of the rainfall as inflows currently exceed outflows. Current discharge at the dam is now 35,000 cfs. The pool of record is 751.69 back in 1984. Many of the roadways leading to the lake have been closed off and the public is urged to be cautious when approaching these areas. ---------------------------- Lake Cumberland hits second-highest elevation in history and is expected to keep rising The water elevation at Lake Cumberland has hit a level seen only three times since Wolf Creek Dam was finished nearly 70 years ago, and is approaching a record with continued rain expected. The level as of 8 a.m. Friday was 747.84 feet above sea level, according to the U.S Army Corps of Engineers. The only other times the lake level has topped 745 feet were in April 1962, when it hit 747.12, and in May 1984, when it was 751.69, the record. Under typical conditions, the lake fills to a level of 700 feet to 723 feet by mid-May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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