1234snow Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Some parts of Chattanooga had hail accumulation from the strong cell that came through last night. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 21 minutes ago, 1234snow said: Just hit ~110 again. I believe it may be legit. If so, that's incredible. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 20, 2019 Author Share Posted February 20, 2019 the seems to be a loosely organized convective system over MS. with he head near the MS/TN/AL state line .the warm front of this is what is training over central TN..up the cumberland basin..the "cold front" is pushing more east but still training later it looks like lake cumberland rising rapidly now 1-2.5 inches fell along the OH river last night the levels at Paducha and Cairo are spiking well above forecast points now flash flood warnings for nashville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Starting to become a little more concerned this afternoon and overnight for the central and southern valley. Risk of flash flooding from torrential rain and training is increasing on the hi res models. PWAT values are near 1.6+ coming up the valley now, with storms training over the area. Unlike the past couple waves involving a large rain shield, 1.5+ is being produced over a very short time. 12z 3k and HRRR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Bad situation in Davidson Co and surrounding areas...overlapping FFW in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Starting to become a little more concerned this afternoon and overnight for the central and southern valley. Risk of flash flooding from torrential rain and training is increasing on the hi res models. PWAT values are near 1.6+ coming up the valley now, with storms training over the area. Unlike the past couple waves involving a large rain shield, 1.5+ is being produced over a very short time. 12z 3k and HRRRI ended just under 2" from yesterday IMBY, it won't take much to have road closures in my area from flooding, some areas are teetering on it already. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 20, 2019 Author Share Posted February 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Bad situation in Davidson Co and surrounding areas...overlapping FFW in that area. 12z NAM hits them with another train tommrow night/friday too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Math/Met Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 1 hour ago, Blue Ridge said: For those playing along at home, 1 m/s = 2.237 mph. Alternatively, use this handy calculator. Ignoring the high outliers, it looks like Camp Creek is consistently flirting with 40 m/s - nearly 90 mph. (FYI - if that 54 m/s observation is verified, that's ~121 mph.) @Math/Met Thoughts? I think you are correct to ignore the red data on that chart. It is unreliable. The peak gust data (green) is probably accurate, so nearly 90mph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 20, 2019 Author Share Posted February 20, 2019 Lake cumberland stats (last column outflow) ..getting trained now 10.8 feet from record high,,,only the 8th time above 740 feet 2/20/2019 6 AM 740.75 25,060 2/20/2019 7 AM 740.84 25,060 2/20/2019 8 AM 740.94 25,060 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Not a good warning map this morning in Middle TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 I think you are correct to ignore the red data on that chart. It is unreliable. The peak gust data (green) is probably accurate, so nearly 90mph.All local tv Mets have used the 123mph measurement on social media this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 About 30 minutes after posting that, Camp Creek switched to a SE wind and gusted to 53mph. It should continue to increase.Is there a weather station the public can access in that area?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Math/Met Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 31 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Is there a weather station the public can access in that area? . https://oculus.atdd.noaa.gov/campcreek/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Math/Met Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 1 hour ago, 1234snow said: All local tv Mets have used the 123mph measurement on social media this morning. That’s unfortunate. It may end up being correct, but I would be VERY surprised. The near 90mph gusts seem legit. I have a full dataset for research purposes that goes back to 2008, and 123mph would be way above anything recorded there. I do think it’s possible for Camp Creek to gust over 100mph in mountain wave events. I’ve speculated that it was over 100mph in 2004, but there was no reliable data at that point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Lots of thunder with the rain here. Had some trees blown across roads this morning. Soaked ground plus wind gusts in the storms did their damage. Amazingly heavy drops here today. Like big summer showers. Except it's cold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Math/Met Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 I haven't heard any major damage reports, but it looks like there are a lot of trees down in southern Greene County. WCYB Probably not the best idea to be standing there. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Math/Met Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 I don’t want to post too much about the mountain wave event, but here is why I think the red data plots are incorrect. If you expand out to a 720 hour plot, you can see errors show up several times. The peak (green) is usually very accurate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, Math/Met said: I don’t want to post too much about the mountain wave event, but here is why I think the red data plots are incorrect. If you expand out to a 720 hour plot, you can see errors show up several times. The peak (green) is usually very accurate. Def looks like glitches data on those wind speed. The gust (green), should always be above or inline with wind speed (red) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 20, 2019 Author Share Posted February 20, 2019 still no updated crest numbers for the OH Lake Cumberland hit hard, in fact you couldn't ask for a better train set up..most of the watershed is to the SE of the lake and that is exactly the area that got hit with 2-3 inches over much of the basin 10 feet from the record 2/20/2019 9 AM 741.06 25,150 2/20/2019 10 AM 741.26 25,240 2/20/2019 11 AM 741.42 25,240 2/20/2019 noon 741.62 25,330 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Crossing 3 inches for the current event as we speak. Pounding down with occasional thunder. About a week ago the Euro showed 24 hours of thunder sitting right over us and I was skeptical, it's basically been correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 20, 2019 Author Share Posted February 20, 2019 Cairo crest forecast 54.5 11th all time Paducah 51.5 8th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 20, 2019 Author Share Posted February 20, 2019 SOMERSET Heavy rains the last few days have pushed Lake Cumberland to a level not seen in more than 20 years. The elevation of the lake surface was 741.62 feet above sea level at noon on Wednesday, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. It was last at that level in 1998, when it hit 742.4 feet. Continued rain could push the lake to 750 feet, according to the corps. https://www.kentucky.com/news/state/kentucky/article226520435.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Thankfully Euro shows only one more (admittedly long-lived) system to endure after this one before we get a break. Unfortunately it also shows a general 5-6" with a dollop of 8" inches over central/ western TN and central KY in an axis running from around N. MS to Jackson KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Thankfully Euro shows only one more (admittedly long-lived) system to endure after this one before we get a break. Unfortunately it also shows a general 5-6" with a dollop of 8" inches over central/ western TN and central KY in an axis running from around N. MS to Jackson KY. Knoxville has been fine to this point. The flooded areas around my house are just a little higher than before this started. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Yeah, Beaver Creek seems like it is almost in a perpetual mini flood, even when it is relatively dry. Still, it's something to see it lapping up against the high voltage towers as you drive down Emory toward Clinton highway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 326 PM EST Wed Feb 20 2019 Day 3 Valid 12Z Fri Feb 22 2019 - 12Z Sat Feb 23 2019 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...Southern U.S. to parts of the Southeast U.S. and southern Appalachians... The frontal boundary that will provide focus for convection on Day 2 will slowly lift northward on Day 3--in fact it is expected to be quasi-stationary until the surface low ejects into the southern Plains and lifts the front northward by the end of Day 3. Broad southwest to northeast flow aloft at the jet-stream level is expected along with channeled vorticity at the mid-levels. This is not the best set up for a focus on heavy rainfall and models still have spread where the heavy rainfall axis will be. For now, the QPF is placed just to the south and east of where the lower FFG values are. Because confidence is still low in this axis placement, continued the Slight Risk of excessive rainfall--and based on where the models begin to have more consensus and what happens over the next few days, this could warrant an upgrade in the future. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Yeah, Beaver Creek seems like it is almost in a perpetual mini flood, even when it is relatively dry. Still, it's something to see it lapping up against the high voltage towers as you drive down Emory toward Clinton highway. I’m right here at Maynardville Hwy and Emory Rd. Beaver creek is way out of its banks but luckily there’s a large spill over area that holds a lot of water. I may go take some pics if I can get to it. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 20, 2019 Author Share Posted February 20, 2019 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Thankfully Euro shows only one more (admittedly long-lived) system to endure after this one before we get a break. Unfortunately it also shows a general 5-6" with a dollop of 8" inches over central/ western TN and central KY in an axis running from around N. MS to Jackson KY. it is going to a battle with lake Cumberland all spring....the lake this year, and early winter 2018, has peaks and valleys similar to that stair step river crest post,,, but over a longer time span.. but each valley is higher when it starts raining again ..it may peak a few days after it stops raining say early next week....fall 10-13 feet when it is dry for a week....but if it turns wet again it will start at a higher level maybe about where it is now perhaps? better hope after a dry period after next week too..so it can get down closer to the full summer pool 723..only 9 feet from the record and only 19 feet from spilling over the top of the spillway....which may not be in play this time...but if we get a repeat of this in a couple weeks who knows... record outflow is 40,000 ..holding at 25,000 ....down from 29,000 yesterday,,,, so do they dump more water now thinking about the very long term later in the spring? they really can't because of the next storm you mentioned /20/2019 noon 741.62 25,330 2/20/2019 1 PM 741.80 25,330 2/20/2019 2 PM 742.00 25,420 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 I'm all for any dry air we can get at this point. Every little bit will help. For my neck of the woods, very happy the intense rain seems to have evaporated on radar as it pushed off the plateau this afternoon. Even though that may not help areas downstream now, hopefully it helps some in the long run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now