TellicoWx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Current conditions Ft Payne AL: Rain rate 1.13" hr..total 1.04" Nickel size hail reported and numerous lightning strikes...temp 39.2 Impressive dynamics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 19, 2019 Author Share Posted February 19, 2019 Lake Cumberland 740.08 and still rising without any new rain I hope they reset the radars total storm totals after the bright banding is over..I forsee people on social media sites pointed out the inflated amounts flash flood warnings north central MS.... for some reason they didn't increase the OH river crests today/// it's nowcast time....I suspect the front will get hung up more then modeled KMSL already over 3/4 on an inch already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Thunder IMBY now. There is a lot of instability, but evidently not much forcing. Precip rates are pretty light. Only 0.30” here all day so far. Lots of thunder though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 18z NAM doubled the totals across SE TN thru Fri evening. Went from 1.5-2 to 3-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 esoscale Precipitation Discussion 0052 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 403 PM EST Tue Feb 19 2019 Areas affected...Along the southern Tennessee border Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 192102Z - 200202Z Summary...Repeating thunderstorms with three-hourly rainfall rates up to 2 inches will continue a risk of flash flooding into this evening south from the southern TN border. A low level boundary has set up across northern MS/AL/GA this afternoon where Gulf moisture is converging. Regional radars depict a broken line of moderate to heavy thunderstorms from southern AR to northern GA with up to moderate stratiform rain farther north along the TN border. The thunderstorms are shifting northeast from deep layer southwesterly flow with upwind propagation vectors directed east. GOES-16 Clean-IR depicts some cooling tops for the activity moving from AL to GA as well as a cluster shifting north over central MS. Observed precipitable water (PW) values between 1.2 and 1.4 inches across interior sections of the southeast late this afternoon are around two standard deviations above normal. The highest observed three-hour rain rates have been around 1.5 inches this afternoon from gauges in north-central MS and over the Atlanta Metro. This heaviest rain has been on the northern end of instability with MUCAPE of 100 to 250 J/Kg where thunderstorms have repeated in short intervals. 850mb southerly flow of 35 to 50 kt is converging on the low level boundary and slowly pushing it north. The latest global and hi-res guidance brings this boundary north across the TN border into the evening. Three-hour flash flood guidance is generally around 2 inches across this area. Localized areas in the heaviest thunderstorms could have rainfall exceed these values and cause flash flooding into this evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 From GSP Twitter page, Newfound Gap. Can't help but wonder how this may actually increase the slide potential across the higher elevations once the warm are pushes thru and unthaws the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Thunder and lightning IMBY.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Delta Flight from Milwaukee struck by lightning and made emergency landing at Chattanooga airport. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 19, 2019 Author Share Posted February 19, 2019 they have cut back on flows from Cumberland. now down to 25,000 cfs from 29K...will be interesting to see if they increase again once the first slug of precip passes lake level as of 4pm 740.22. for some reason the river gauge on the NWS site is below the TVA gauge ...the TVA page updates in batches and is delayed but you can see the 15 min rises on the NWS river gauge in real time (hr delay) under tabular data not much news out of TVA or the media about the lake level....internet rumblings and rumors last weekend said the Corp expects tto hit 745...but that was before the higher then expected rain that fell over the weekend I can tell you it its going to go higher then 745....epsecially if any training sets up over the watershed.. DWR( CA version of TVA) was always behind the curve on Dduring Oroville and said it wouldn't go over the emergency spillway when it was obvious it was.. DWR calculates inflow into their lakes but taking the known out flow and the change in lake level per hour using a known chart....TVA doesn't do that to at least doesn't makes it public 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Hwy 321 is closed again at the Kinzel Springs rockslide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 No sleet for me in Knoxville, but huge, fat rain drops with the leading edge. Some culvert near a local market already gushing water after maybe 20 minutes of this. Hoping for a clap or two of thunder tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Trying to get more info, but per West Polk FD...A section of westbound Hwy 30 in Polk Co is closed..either due to a slide or a section of the road collapsed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Photo courtesy WPVFD...small section of the shoulder on Hwy 30 has slide off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Photo courtesy WPVFD...small section of the shoulder on Hwy 30 has slide offI bet as the week goes on we are going to see more rock slides and highway slides. So much water has undercut rock above roads and under roadways that both occurrences I think will tick up.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: I bet as the week goes on we are going to see more rock slides and highway slides. So much water has undercut rock above roads and under roadways that both occurrences I think will tick up. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk I work for TDOT. We had a crew parked on the shoulder of hwy 64 today just to respond quickly to small slides. There were already 2 this morning along parksville lake. One was starting to encroach on the westbound lane. There will be more by the end of the week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Closing in on .75" and a long ways to go looking at the radar for the night.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Flood Advisory for the southern 1/3 of the E TN valley now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 A lot of thunder and lightning rates have really picked up. Just checked and now at 1.25". Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 The thunder and lightning show has been impressive here tonight, I was not expecting that. Big winter storm in 10 days, book it, done. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 20, 2019 Author Share Posted February 20, 2019 1.4 at KCHA so far 2.24 KHSV there is a precip min north of this from Nashville to lake Cumberland watershed...between the more heavy precip near the MS river 00z NAM troubling for central TN...in.later periods(may change to a different location) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Flood Watch National Weather Service Nashville TN 930 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019 ...Flash Flood Watch in effect through early Thursday morning across Middle Tennessee... .Rain will continue through tonight and into Wednesday as a warm front lifts northward from the Gulf Coast. Rain will be heavy at times tonight and into tomorrow. Due to the saturated ground from previous rainfall, this additional heavy rain could lead to flash flooding. TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-201200- /O.CON.KOHX.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-190221T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston- Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith- Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson- Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford- Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles- Including the cities of Dover, Clarksville, Springfield, Hendersonville, Gallatin, Goodlettsville, Lafayette, Celina, Byrdstown, Erin, Waverly, New Johnsonville, McEwen, Dickson, Ashland City, Kingston Springs, Nashville, Lebanon, Mount Juliet, Hartsville, Carthage, South Carthage, Gordonsville, Gainesboro, Cookeville, Livingston, Jamestown, Allardt, Linden, Lobelville, Centerville, Hohenwald, Franklin, Brentwood, Columbia, Lewisburg, Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne, Woodbury, Smithville, Sparta, Crossville, Shelbyville, Tullahoma, Manchester, McMinnville, Altamont, Coalmont, Spencer, Clifton, Waynesboro, Lawrenceburg, and Pulaski 930 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * A portion of Middle Tennessee, including the following areas, Bedford, Cannon, Cheatham, Clay, Coffee, Cumberland, Davidson, De Kalb, Dickson, Fentress, Giles, Grundy, Hickman, Houston, Humphreys, Jackson, Lawrence, Lewis, Macon, Marshall, Maury, Montgomery, Overton, Perry, Pickett, Putnam, Robertson, Rutherford, Smith, Stewart, Sumner, Trousdale, Van Buren, Warren, Wayne, White, Williamson, and Wilson. * Through late Wednesday night * 1.5 to 3 inches of rainfall are expected across the watch area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 MRX with a Flood Advisory for the entire CWA now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 00z GFS came in a lot drier between 12z Wed- 12z Thur for the E TN valley...still a big threat for the plateau and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 200353Z - 200953Z Summary...An uptick in moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms overnight, with the potential for repeating rounds, will raise the risk of flash flooding across portions of the mid-MS, TN, and lower OH Valleys. Discussion...Deep mid/upper level trough over the Southwest US and +140 kt jet downstream has put the lower/mid MS, TN, and lower OH River Valleys well within the favorable right entrance region this evening. Southerly flow in the low levels is surging higher moisture northward, characterized by an increase in PWs, now ranging from 1.2 to 1.4" per latest TPW blends and RAP mesoanalysis. Regional radar imagery shows plenty of elevated showers and thunderstorms ongoing from the Arklatex region northeastward toward the confluence of the OH and MS Rivers with a noted cooling in the IR imagery cloud tops. This is supported by the RAP analysis of 500-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE as far north as the TN/KY border. Over the next several hours, the low level jet is expected to increase with 850 mb winds forecast between 50-70 kts by 07-08z. This should act to further surge the anomalously high PWs (2-3 SD above the mean) northward. Convection should continue to blossom over the region and with the expected storm motion (southwest to northeast) closely aligned with the mean flow, repeating rounds and training will be possible. Hi-res models indicate that through about 10z, a swath of 1-2" with local amounts near 3", will be possible from central/eastern AR, western TN, northern MS, and southwest KY. This region has been running very wet the last 14 days (300-400 percent of normal) so the additional rainfall combined with colder ground surfaces will lead to enhanced runoff and potential flash flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Math/Met Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Everything still looks on track for a significant mountain wave wind event. It has taken awhile for conditions to become favorable. Even though VWP indicates 40kt SE winds at 4000ft, the cross barrier flow remains blocked. Camp Creek winds haven't really increased yet and aren't currently blowing from a SE direction. Conditions become much more favorable in the next few hours. HRRR is showing the enhancement right along the mountains and especially in the Camp Creek area by tomorrow morning. That's not the most reliable wind product, but it usually does a good job of showing areas of mountain wave enhancement (even if wind speed isn't accurate). The biggest question for me is how trees will hold up in areas with possible 75+ mph wind gusts and saturated soil. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Math/Met Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 About 30 minutes after posting that, Camp Creek switched to a SE wind and gusted to 53mph. It should continue to increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 22 minutes ago, Math/Met said: About 30 minutes after posting that, Camp Creek switched to a SE wind and gusted to 53mph. It should continue to increase. Wind has begun to pick up here as well...temp shot up to 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 1 hour ago, Math/Met said: Everything still looks on track for a significant mountain wave wind event. It has taken awhile for conditions to become favorable. Even though VWP indicates 40kt SE winds at 4000ft, the cross barrier flow remains blocked. Camp Creek winds haven't really increased yet and aren't currently blowing from a SE direction. Conditions become much more favorable in the next few hours. HRRR is showing the enhancement right along the mountains and especially in the Camp Creek area by tomorrow morning. That's not the most reliable wind product, but it usually does a good job of showing areas of mountain wave enhancement (even if wind speed isn't accurate). The biggest question for me is how trees will hold up in areas with possible 75+ mph wind gusts and saturated soil. Already have 73 customers out here in the southern part of Monroe Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Town has lost power now...numerous outages county wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 For those playing along at home, 1 m/s = 2.237 mph. Alternatively, use this handy calculator. Ignoring the high outliers, it looks like Camp Creek is consistently flirting with 40 m/s - nearly 90 mph. (FYI - if that 54 m/s observation is verified, that's ~121 mph.) @Math/Met Thoughts? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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