janetjanet998 Posted February 17, 2019 Author Share Posted February 17, 2019 Tennessee Valley Authority Verified account @TVAnews 2h2 hours ago More In the East Tenn. area we are releasing very high flows from the tributary dams (Norris, Cherokee, Douglas, etc.) and expect to make reductions as early as tomorrow to begin storing water. Continue moving tremendous amounts of water down the Tenn. River. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 hour ago, 1234snow said: This morning’s rains have already brought .75 to over an inch for much of SWVA. Yeah, kmrx was wrong on the heaviest axis 2day as it has setup through seky/swva. .93 here as of 2:30 pm...some areas along the border already at 1.5+ inches 2day alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 17, 2019 Author Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 17, 2019 Author Share Posted February 17, 2019 18Z NAM with yet another tick NW with the Tuesday/weds system..now nails OH River perhaps a concern is they are expecting the huge rain amounts in SE TN..so they are sending all this water down TN River below Pickwick into the OH river eventually? what is the heaviest falls more NW with the increased flows from the TN too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 17, 2019 Author Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 hours ago, janetjanet998 said: but the total day 5 and day 7 not updated yet.(the sum of the above)..both should be interesting to say the least..plus that doesn't include precip before 00z this evening click for latest. (2027z time stamp) .YIKES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 hours ago, janetjanet998 said: click for latest. (2027z time stamp) .YIKES 00z increased totals some: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 12 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: 00z increased totals some: Just do not honestly see how this has a good ending no matter how it plays out over the next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 17, 2019 Author Share Posted February 17, 2019 as of 4pm today Nashville up to 8.07 for the month, including 1.24 today FEB RECORD 12.37 in 1880 Wettest month on record MAY 2010 16.43 (most fell in 2 days) Lake Cumberland rising again at 736.89 ..the watershed got hit pretty good today . outflow still holding at 28,000. record 751 feet and change.. I think odds are increasing it will pass that mark....top of flood pool 760.. do you cut back on outflows to help downstream flooding? hold steady? or increase to 35K to keep the lake from rising faster? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 .72 Friday night IMBY on the Tennessee River on Watts Bar Lake. So far today .87 looking as though will end probably around 1.5 by morning looking at rates. Creeks are running high, going to be an interesting week.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 River is beginning to near crest, about 1 1/2' below flood stage. Received 1.63" overnight, bringing total to 2.75". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Not the obs thread, but seemed like it might fit better here. Took a group on a hike up to White Rocks near Ewing, VA. This would be the headwaters of the Powell. Water is already spewing out the side of the mountain, literally. Springs on the hillside are shooting water out. Creeks I've never seen as more than a trickle or completely dry are filling very old creek beds. The valley bottom already had creeks running out of their banks, without the additional water from the mountainside having made it there yet. All this after only round one. Creek I've never seen with any water: Waterfall at Sand Cave; Dry spring turned creek: https://imgur.com/a/DXbm4PA 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 18, 2019 Author Share Posted February 18, 2019 trends are still trending NW.....may be the case now where no one gets the huge 8-10 inch amounts but more get 4-5+(i.e. OH valley.too) ..of course convection could slow/stall the north movement of any warm front too 06z GFS now has the final wave max pecip north of the OH river I have noticed WPC forecast lags trends.....and river forecast are based on WPC I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 15 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: may be the case now where no one gets the huge 8-10 inch amounts but more get 4-5+(i.e. OH valley.too) Sounds like some good news! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 As has been the case most winter...ensemble and short range hi res is busting low here. GEFS was closer (1.1), EPS (1.0), and the 3k NAM (.8) vs reality (1.6). Not sure about other locations, but when you combine what has fallen with what is modeled on the ensembles, the 7-9 consistently shown at the start of the weekend looks on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Definitely did so yesterday. When I can back from my hike and looked at the radar, I thought hmmm, that was a little more robust than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Sounds like some good news! Only good news I see across modeling, is the timing..with the spacing of the systems it allows enough drying for TVA to keep drawing down and FFG to lessen a little, but river guidance still remains the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Already a rockslide between Walland and Townsend has 321 shut down, both directions. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 18, 2019 Author Share Posted February 18, 2019 12z NAM still hits the OH river hardest with the first wave Lake cumberland rising rapidly 738.32 as of 6am...up 1.5 feet in 18 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 18, 2019 Author Share Posted February 18, 2019 after this period a little pattern change...perhaps ..models move a strong high down form Canada...flattening the flow however, models seem to want to rebuild the pattern somewhat (more like strong southern jet) but perhaps more south in the 10-15 day time frame...but some of the members hit you guys again the first graphic is the 10 day mean and the last is the full 16 day run..the increase in t he second image is mostly from some members nailing you guys again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 18, 2019 Author Share Posted February 18, 2019 DAY 2 VALID 12Z TUE FEB 19 2019 - 12Z WED FEB 20 2019 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND TENNESSEE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY... THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM PARTS OF ARKANSAS TO PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A MODERATE RISK REMAINS IN PLACE. THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN STILL FEATURES A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WHEN THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME SOUTH AND ACCELERATE TO BETWEEN 45 KTS AND 60 KTS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING DIFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS THE AXIS OF A 160 TO 180 KT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES INTO POSITION. THE RESULT WILL BE A WELL-DEFINED MOISTURE PLUME GETTING PULLED NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH MAXIMUM VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES NEAR THE GULF COAST AND LESSER VALUES DOWNSTREAM. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE AND INCREASING RAINFALL RATES FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY 2 FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WERE SOME CONSISTENT SIGNALS IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE THAT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT WILL BE DELAYED SOMEWHAT COMPARED WITH EARLIER THINKING...BUT THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME AND DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY/INTENSE RAINFALL IS STILL ON-TRACK WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES APPEARING TO BE THE MOST LIKELY RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS RESULTED IN MAINTAINING THE MODERATE RISK AREA BUT ADJUSTING THE PLACEMENT OF IT AREA SOMEWHAT WEST OF WHERE IT WAS IN PREVIOUS OUTLOOKS. ALSO NUDGED THE EASTERN PERIHERY WESTWARD. TOO, SINCE IT APPEARS A BROAD SPRAWLING HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL BE FEEDING STABLE AIR ON THE EASTERN FLANK...BUT LEFT THE SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE AT OR NEAR THE BOUNDARIES COLLABORATED ON SUNDAY. THERE OVERALL PLACEMENT SHOULD BE CONFINED IN A FAIRLY NARROW CHANNEL BETWEEN THE DEEP SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND HEADED TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. EVEN SO, THERE WAS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AND WPC TENDED TO STAY BETWEEN THE WESTERLY ECMWF AND THE EASTERN OPERATIONAL GFS (WHICH WAS SIMILAR TO THE GFS-FV3). BANN DAY 3 VALID 12Z WED FEB 20 2019 - 12Z THU FEB 21 2019 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY... A PROLONGED RAINFALL EVENT FROM THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE ON-GOING AT THE START OF THE DAY 3 FORECAST AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE BEYOND 21/12Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY NOT BE AS GREAT AS THEY WERE ON DAY 2...BUT THE CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF OBSERVED AND FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS IS MAXIMIZED OVER PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A MODERATE RISK AREA OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS PLACED WHERE THE OVERLAP APPEARED GREATEST FROM THE DAY 2 AND DAY 3 WPC QPF. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FROM DAY 2 WILL BE EASING EASTWARD OVER PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA DURING THE PERIOD. WHILE RAINFALL RATES LOOK TO DIMINISH A BIT, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL APPEARS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY ONCE AGAIN LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY FOCUS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA THAT GETS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ON DAY 2...BUT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA OR SOUTHERN TENNESSEE MAY HAVE 48-HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 5 INCHES DESPITE MODEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS EACH DAY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS LOOK TO DECREASE IN RESPONSE. ELSEWHERE, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INCREASING SPREAD AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL WILL MAKE IT AND WHEN/WHERE THE NEXT ROUND INITIATES. AS A RESULT, THE CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE WAS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A MODERATE RISK AREA EVEN THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER PHASE OF THIS LONG-TERM RAINFALL EVENT. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS PLACED FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES ALONG THE GULF COAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY. DID NOT EXTEND EITHER THE SLIGHT RISK OR MARGINAL RISK AREAS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS. BECAUSE THIS IS A LONG-TERM EVENT, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG OR NEAR THE AXIS WHICH HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE CURRENT DAY 2 AND DAY 3 RAINFALL FORECAST, REFER TO QPF AND DISCUSSIONS FROM THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT THURSDAY AND BEYOND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 18, 2019 Author Share Posted February 18, 2019 thru this weekends system..note: two days ago models wanted to blast a huge high from Canada down shutting this off..got delayed.....now trends are for more rain next week at least for southern parts of your area .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 thru this weekends system..note: two days ago models wanted to blast a huge high from Canada down shutting this off..got delayed.....now trends are for more rain next week at least for southern parts of your area .... We don't need more rain down here in Chattanooga. If we continue in this pattern it will be bad for farmers especially. By the way, where is your location JanetJanet? Sent from my XT1710-02 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 18, 2019 Author Share Posted February 18, 2019 13 minutes ago, Uncle Nasty said: We don't need more rain down here in Chattanooga. If we continue in this pattern it will be bad for farmers especially. By the way, where is your location JanetJanet? Sent from my XT1710-02 using Tapatalk I'm in Peoria IL..I just track and follow extreme weather events as a hobby(30+ years) , (ie the Oroville Dam mess and houston Harvey flooding) this is a unique situation...due to the record wet last year...and the fact soils are wet and runoff already very high...and with this system dumping so much water over a large area..at least it isn't later in the spring and lakes are closer to their summer pool already...the flip side that no green vegetation to help soaked up some of it yet.. the pattern better break after this .... 12z GVSFV3 nails Kentucky lake area 6-7 inches and you guys still 4-5 .... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 18, 2019 Author Share Posted February 18, 2019 with some for rain factored in ..I believe 48 hours so thru 12z weds... creast raised to 53 feet from 52 feet at Cairo next monday will TVA hold more water back now or later? looks like they are not slowing down the outflow that much .. huge amounts of water are planned to be dumped from the TN river into Kentucky lake this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 hour ago, janetjanet998 said: with some for rain factored in ..I believe 48 hours so thru 12z weds... creast raised to 53 feet from 52 feet at Cairo next monday will TVA hold more water back now or later? looks like they are not slowing down the outflow that much .. huge amounts of water are planned to be dumped from the TN river into Kentucky lake this week Nickajack is running wide open...nearing 1 mil gallon a sec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 As Janet has mentioned...todays 12z suite is ugly region wide (pretty much every watershed into the MS from KY to the gulf gets hammered. Was hoping the Euro would disagree with the GEFS, but not. Theme of this winter looks to roll on...rain...24-36 hr break...rinse/repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 12z GEFS and 12z Euro Op (waiting on EPS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 EPS looks to follow the GEFS/Euro Op in increasing totals...hate to be TVA looking at the data. Its a lose/lose situation nearly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 18, 2019 Author Share Posted February 18, 2019 13 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: EPS looks to follow the GEFS/Euro Op in increasing totals...hate to be TVA looking at the data. Its a lose/lose situation nearly. I assume (EURO) that some of that precip over central MS and AL is from the later system next week...better not have a north trend with that into the TVA watershed again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: I assume (EURO) that some of that precip over central MS and AL is from the later system next week...better not have a north trend with that into the TVA watershed again That has been trend though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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