TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever

[Kentucky]

4 inches for the event so far in Corbin

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Hearing reports that parts of Highway 27 in Roane/ Morgan county are under water now. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Obed Flooding at the confluence of the little Emory:

 

 

Judge Branch coming off of Frozen Head:

 

Highway 62 at the Emory River:

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Oliver Springs area between OS and Oak Ridge:

 

[John1122]

Hwy 25w is closed here. 5.14 inches of rain from the event so far. Still raining. 

[Wurbus]

Close to 5 inches near Karns. I think February is the new monsoon season here in East TN. Hopefully the models back off some totals from next week's system as well.

[Greyhound]

Current water elevation at Norris Lake is 1,003 ASL.  Full pool is 1,020.  Here's the predicted data over the next few days.  It's risen two feet since 3am, so I would venture to guess these estimates may be on the lower side.

 

 

[Greyhound]

@Holston_River_Rambler I would LOVE to see how flooded Nemo Tunnel is right now!!!  

[Geoboy645]

I swear it is becoming a new tradition to have you guys get flooded out in February.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

6 minutes ago, Greyhound said:

I would LOVE to see how flooded Nemo Tunnel is right now!!!  

When I was up there a guy told me to look at it, but recommended I not do it today, lol. I didn't even know there was a tunnel until today. Here is the picnic area: 

 

Random tree floating down:

 

 

 

 

[Greyhound]

27 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

When I was up there a guy told me to look at it, but recommended I not do it today, lol. I didn't even know there was a tunnel until today. Here is the picnic area: 

 

Random tree floating down:

 

 

 

 

We went through the tunnel a few weeks ago and the water was high then.  A couple friends were talking about going this weekend - so I shared your video of the bridge to hopefully make them think otherwise!!!

[Daniel Boone]

5.06" Rainfall Storm Total here as of 1 p.m... 

[TellicoWx]

13500 cubic feet per sec...haven't seen the Tellico River this high since it collapsed the Cherohala Skyway in 1993.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

wow. was wondering how things were down your way, looks like y'all still getting hammered

[janetjanet998]

3 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Obed Flooding at the confluence of the little Emory:

 

 

Judge Branch coming off of Frozen Head:

 

Highway 62 at the Emory River:

 

 

 

crest 33.88 at Oakdale

1) 42.30 ft on 03/23/1929
(2) 38.71 ft on 12/23/1990
(3) 38.70 ft on 05/28/1973
(4) 38.70 ft on 03/23/1991
(5) 34.20 ft on 12/30/1969
(6) 34.10 ft on 04/04/1977
(7) 33.00 ft on 02/13/1948

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Oliver Springs area:

 

[dwagner88]

Extended range looks horrible. Continual heavy rain events. 

[jaxjagman]

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
308 AM EST Sat Feb 08 2020
 
Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Feb 10 2020 - 12Z Tue Feb 11 2020 

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXTENDING FROM 
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO 
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...Lower Mississippi Valley across the Lower Tennessee Valley into 
the Southern Appalachians...
Strong short wave energy closes off as it drops across Southern CA 
to a position off the northern Baja Peninsula by the end of Day 3. 
Short wave energy ejected from the closed low rides along a slow 
moving front extending from the Southern Appalachians into the 
Lower MS Valley, providing synoptic scale ascent for heavy 
rainfall over areas that received flooding in the recent past. 
There is a good model agreement with the overall setup, increasing 
confidence in an enhanced flash flood threat in this area.

As the closed mid level low settles just off the Southern CA coast 
during the second half of Day 3, the west southwest mid level flow 
becomes increasingly parallel to a slow moving front extending 
from the Mid Atlantic Coast to the western Gulf of Mexico. Ahead 
of the boundary, a 45/55 knot low level west southwest flow sends 
1.50 inch precipitable water air (which is between two and three 
standard deviations above the mean) along the front, peaking after 
11/00z. Within the moisture plume, model soundings showed 500/1000 
J/KG of MUCAPE extending from eastern LA into west central GA. The 
combination of moisture and instability should be sufficient to 
support low topped convection along the front.

Convection is possible at the beginning of the period across MS 
ahead of the initial short wave energy, extending into northern AL 
into the Southern Appalachians during the afternoon. The low 
topped storms are expected to produce heavy rainfall over areas 
that saw flooding with the last round of heavy rain earlier in the 
week. After a possible lull during the evening hours, the next 
area of convection develops along the front across AR into central 
MS. During this time, difluence increases over the front in the 
presence of a dual jet structure extending the Lower MS into New 
England, which should allow an areal coverage in heavy rain.

As the front drops slowly southeast during the late evening and 
overnight, cells are expected to track from southwest northeast 
along the front, producing training along the front from central 
MS into northern GA and upstate SC. Hourly rainfall rates during 
this time could exceed an inch, especially where training occurs. 
There is a strong model signal for 2.00/4.00+ inches of rainfall 
extending along the front, with the highest amounts extending from 
central AL into far northern LA, closest to the best instability 
axis. 

Over the Southern Appalachians into northern AL, three hour flash 
flood guidance values are as low as 1.00/1.50 inches, as these 
areas received more than 300 percent of normal rainfall in the 
past week. There are still rivers in flood here, with soils still 
nearly saturated. Though rainfall amounts here are lower than 
further southwest, the impact here could be greater. After 
collaborating with the WFOs MRX/FFC/GSP, a Moderate Risk was 
placed here for Day 3. 

Further southwest, extending from northern Al into central MS, the 
antecedent conditions are not quite as wet, with the bulk of the 
heaviest rain with the last event occurring further northeast. 
However, the model signal here is stronger for 3.00/4.00+ inches 
of rainfall with the convection, lying closer to the best 
instability. Based on this, and after collaborating with WFOs 
BMX/JAN/MEG, the Moderate Risk was extended across northern AL 
into central MS for Day 3. 


Hayes

[weathertree4u]

28 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
308 AM EST Sat Feb 08 2020
 
Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Feb 10 2020 - 12Z Tue Feb 11 2020 

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXTENDING FROM 
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO 
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...Lower Mississippi Valley across the Lower Tennessee Valley into 
the Southern Appalachians...
Strong short wave energy closes off as it drops across Southern CA 
to a position off the northern Baja Peninsula by the end of Day 3. 
Short wave energy ejected from the closed low rides along a slow 
moving front extending from the Southern Appalachians into the 
Lower MS Valley, providing synoptic scale ascent for heavy 
rainfall over areas that received flooding in the recent past. 
There is a good model agreement with the overall setup, increasing 
confidence in an enhanced flash flood threat in this area.

As the closed mid level low settles just off the Southern CA coast 
during the second half of Day 3, the west southwest mid level flow 
becomes increasingly parallel to a slow moving front extending 
from the Mid Atlantic Coast to the western Gulf of Mexico. Ahead 
of the boundary, a 45/55 knot low level west southwest flow sends 
1.50 inch precipitable water air (which is between two and three 
standard deviations above the mean) along the front, peaking after 
11/00z. Within the moisture plume, model soundings showed 500/1000 
J/KG of MUCAPE extending from eastern LA into west central GA. The 
combination of moisture and instability should be sufficient to 
support low topped convection along the front.

Convection is possible at the beginning of the period across MS 
ahead of the initial short wave energy, extending into northern AL 
into the Southern Appalachians during the afternoon. The low 
topped storms are expected to produce heavy rainfall over areas 
that saw flooding with the last round of heavy rain earlier in the 
week. After a possible lull during the evening hours, the next 
area of convection develops along the front across AR into central 
MS. During this time, difluence increases over the front in the 
presence of a dual jet structure extending the Lower MS into New 
England, which should allow an areal coverage in heavy rain.

As the front drops slowly southeast during the late evening and 
overnight, cells are expected to track from southwest northeast 
along the front, producing training along the front from central 
MS into northern GA and upstate SC. Hourly rainfall rates during 
this time could exceed an inch, especially where training occurs. 
There is a strong model signal for 2.00/4.00+ inches of rainfall 
extending along the front, with the highest amounts extending from 
central AL into far northern LA, closest to the best instability 
axis. 

Over the Southern Appalachians into northern AL, three hour flash 
flood guidance values are as low as 1.00/1.50 inches, as these 
areas received more than 300 percent of normal rainfall in the 
past week. There are still rivers in flood here, with soils still 
nearly saturated. Though rainfall amounts here are lower than 
further southwest, the impact here could be greater. After 
collaborating with the WFOs MRX/FFC/GSP, a Moderate Risk was 
placed here for Day 3. 

Further southwest, extending from northern Al into central MS, the 
antecedent conditions are not quite as wet, with the bulk of the 
heaviest rain with the last event occurring further northeast. 
However, the model signal here is stronger for 3.00/4.00+ inches 
of rainfall with the convection, lying closer to the best 
instability. Based on this, and after collaborating with WFOs 
BMX/JAN/MEG, the Moderate Risk was extended across northern AL 
into central MS for Day 3. 


Hayes

Just amazing. I think you @jaxjagmanhad posted last week sometime about the extremes in the weather and to think that possibly at some point in the Summer this tap will shut off in a big way and we could go from extremely wet to extremely dry, which, could bode badly for the fire season fall 2020

[Kentucky]

[jaxjagman]

Long range both the Euro and GFS shows a standing tall upper level ridge in the east,have to wait and see but both the Euro and GFS are hinting at this other than timing, but the synoptics look quite similar to the past event with the possible entrance of the  300mb jet 120-140kts this would strenghten the LLShear and be quite another flood potential event.

[John1122]

WPC day 3 outlook. 

 

[John1122]

Not a pretty picture on the 18z GFS Mon-Thurs morning. 

[jaxjagman]

You can always look into East Asia for at least some pattern,tho this depends on how teleconnections work out,But you can see a trough moving through East China and ridging building on east and west day 3.and then by day 10 you could start to see a trough coming out the west in NA with ridging east and west if you examine the 5H's.Certainly don't work out everytime but it's a good tool to use

[jaxjagman]

What the Euro shows today and who know if it's going to be right,would be a band of heavy rain from frontogenesis in our parts.I wouldnt focus on one spot myself right now and plus where is the convection if any?I'm just showing what it could be look like.I still think the bigger rain maker is coming later than sooner.

[jaxjagman]

20 hours ago, weathertree4u said:

Just amazing. I think you @jaxjagmanhad posted last week sometime about the extremes in the weather and to think that possibly at some point in the Summer this tap will shut off in a big way and we could go from extremely wet to extremely dry, which, could bode badly for the fire season fall 2020

Seems possible and very well could be but the downfall to me is if there is going to be a transition into a LaNina and what and how strong it does end up to be.Last season we we started to see the surgence of a Nino,this year could be reversed,

[weathertree4u]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Seems possible and very well could be but the downfall to me is if there is going to be a transition into a LaNina and what and how strong it does end up to be.Last season we we started to see the surgence of a Nino,this year could be reversed,

@jaxjagmanat least next winter may be different 

[TellicoWx]

Not surprising, a Flood Watch has been posted for south of I40. With area streams currently stressed (Tellico River is still running 200% above normal and is barely falling now) plus the snowpack up along the mountaintops that will melt and add to the totals, if any members (or family/friends) live in a flood prone area/ or potential to be cutoff by flooding across southeast TN...would be putting together some form of evacuation plan now. Add in SPC now has a 30% Day 4 severe near Chatt, looks like its gonna be a rough weather week. 

[jaxjagman]

15 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

You can always look into East Asia for at least some pattern,tho this depends on how teleconnections work out,But you can see a trough moving through East China and ridging building on east and west day 3.and then by day 10 you could start to see a trough coming out the west in NA with ridging east and west if you examine the 5H's.Certainly don't work out everytime but it's a good tool to use

Guess the Euro just shot that down...lol

[Holston_River_Rambler]

EPS means of 7.5- 8 inches back in N Alabama: