weathertree4u Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 19 minutes ago, Wurbus said: Latest GFS brings the fire hose right up the eastern valley again for the weekend system. The below image is a 24 hour total. Yea was over middle tn yesterday runs imagine will move around until get closer 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 7, 2019 Author Share Posted March 7, 2019 5 inch contours back on 7 day click for this mornings update The MS river at Baton Rouge, without the rain factored in, crest 44 feet .... top 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 7, 2019 Author Share Posted March 7, 2019 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 Hopefully it doesn't come to fruition, but the GFS/ Euro showing a way that a system between the 14th and 16th could get hung up across the area. Still a ways to go, but this has been shown as a possibility on several model runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 3 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Hopefully it doesn't come to fruition, but the GFS/ Euro showing a way that a system between the 14th and 16th could get hung up across the area. Still a ways to go, but this has been shown as a possibility on several model runs now. Yea it is not a good look on the models that is for sure. Do not know where we are going to put the couple inches we should get this weekend. No telling what would happen if we got that as modeled 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 Found this off a blog about Iowa weather: https://www.tswails.com/single-post/2019/03/07/FINAL-FLOOD-OUTLOOK-AN-EYE-OPENER?fbclid=IwAR3p0YRgKuuc3wOuRE7UZj1tN-Pl9C1vIJyDSPgaHAWI_mDBb7KjbbYyWxM Not exactly sure how specifically this could/ would impact our western areas and areas further down the Mississippi, but I can't image it is good news to have a big, quick melt in those midwestern areas where so much snow has fallen and then have more rain in our TN upstream areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 Right at an inch of rain so far today. Probably another inch to 1.5 over the next day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 10, 2019 Share Posted March 10, 2019 30 day precip update: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 Now a little good news, hopefully... Columbus AFB, Miss. and adjacent radars show some bright banding this morning (Monday). Dual polarization confirms it's mixed precip aloft. Radar estimated (and human estimated) rainfall from the bright reflectivity is probably high. I figure totals are down around a quarter inch. Monday rain was always forecast light. Midweek system even improved a bit. Looks like it'll be moving just enough to keep totals 1-2 inches. Few days ago looked like another 3-4 in. This pattern anything can happen, but think positive. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 10, 2019 Share Posted May 10, 2019 ECMWF comes out after the Day 2 from SPC. Evidence now supports a slight risk Saturday from North Alabama into North Georgia. NAM and Euro both have a lot of CAPE along and south of a lifting boundary. I thought the 12Z NAM was nuts showing a right mover there; other CAMs do not. Now.. Euro introduces a mesolow on the said boundary. Low level winds are veered off, and the upper levels are not robust. However it's May which is CAPE season. While the Day 2 update is still Marginal, I figure on waking up to Slight. No I'm not staying up, lol! Something to watch Saturday though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 Today Monday July 22, National Weather Service is hitting flooding hard along and north of the I-40 and I-81 corridors. Good call considering all of Today Monday July 22, National Weather Service is hitting flooding hard along and north of the I-40 and I-81 corridors. Good call considering Observation posts from @John1122 up that way. Ground won't hold anything before flooding quickly. Locally 2 inches of rain could fall quickly, with isolated 3 inch bursts. Hope we can all avoid flash flooding. Might be worth sharing NWS posts on regular social media too. It will still be hit or miss. Hopefully more miss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1205 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Day 1 Valid 16Z Mon Jul 22 2019 - 12Z Tue Jul 23 2019 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...Lower Mississippi Valley, through the Tennessee Valley and Central Appalachians, into portions of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast... The expansive band of Slight to Moderate Risk was generally maintained with minimal changes on this forecast update, stretching from Arkansas to southern New England. Among the minor changes were to extend the length of the Moderate Risk on both ends: (1) along the Kentucky and Tennessee border to account for an alignment of ongoing convection in a zone of low-level confluence and on the northern periphery of a pool of stronger instability; and (2) from the NYC metro area into southwest Connecticut as hi-res models have a fairly robust signal for heavier QPF (2+ inches) into Connecticut. The Slight Risk area was drawn further northwest in parts of southeast Ohio and southwest Pennsylvania to account for the position of developing convection along the front in those areas. The overall forecast reasoning remains similar, with a ribbon of precipitable water values near or above the 95th percentile along a gradually advancing front. HREF probabilities indicate a high likelihood of pockets of at least 2-3 inches of rainfall over most of the Slight and Moderate Risk regions, and individual members show widespread rain rates of 1-2 in/hr with isolated maxima approaching 3 in/hr. This seems reasonable based on the combination of moderate instability and 2+ inch PW values. Several areas of greater concern exist. First, from eastern Pennsylvania into the NYC metro area hi-res models generally have a stronger signal for rain rates exceeding 2 in/hr. The nose of stronger low-level moisture transport will be focused in this area as well, and GOES-16 visible satellite imagery indicates limited cloud cover as of 16Z, so considerable instability should be able to build (supporting higher rain rates). The second area of concern is near the Kentucky-Tennessee border, where convection is becoming aligned with the deep layer mean flow already, and the inflow region over Tennessee is strongly unstable with SBCAPE around 3000 j/kg at 16Z. Once again, the stronger instability may support a concentrated region where higher (2+ in/hr) rain rates are more likely. Finally, there is concern from far eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and far southwest Pennsylvania. A stronger westerly component to the low-level flow may support a greater concentration of convection in the upslope regions of the Appalachians, and these areas of terrain can be more vulnerable to flash flooding. Furthermore, GPS observations just upstream in south-central Ohio show PW values near or in excess of 2 inches, which indicates significant, deep moisture impinging on the Appalachians. Therefore, flash flooding could also be more prevalent in these areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 National Weather Service Nashville TN 1152 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 .UPDATE... FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Our FFA will be expanded to cover most of our area. Showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours should expand rapidly across the area going into the afternoon. The approach of a trough and embedded MCVs will help initiate the activity in a very moist environment. The 12Z OHX upper air showed about 2 inches for precipitable water, and models are focusing a northeast to southwest band of moisture convergence across Mid Tn this afternoon. Our previous FFA area did show the zone of most persistent lift, but potential for localized flash flooding seems just as high extending back across our southwest counties where heavy rainfall has occurred during the past few days. 1 hour flash flood guidance values are under 2 inches for much of the Mid State, and we will likely have episodes of rainfall rates well in excess of these amounts. We do not expect a widespread flood situation, but locations where heavy convective bands set up could be dealing with several inches of rain and significant local impacts. Thanks LMK for collaboration. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 Had another .55 so far today and a wall of heavy rain is about to move into the area. Flooding is breaking out in Scott and Morgan County and likely will here over the next few hours if that holds together. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 2, 2020 Author Share Posted January 2, 2020 the start of a 2020 redux? Both the 12z Euro and 18z GFS have huge amounts 8+ inches over TN over the next 360 hours..GFS 14 in a dumping the next 2 days..a decent break but then very active and soil moisture is currently already high (70-80 percentile) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 54 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: the start of a 2020 redux? Both the 12z Euro and 18z GFS have huge amounts 8+ inches over TN over the next 360 hours..GFS 14 in a dumping the next 2 days..a decent break but then very active and soil moisture is currently already high (70-80 percentile) She's back,that's not good..lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 hour ago, janetjanet998 said: the start of a 2020 redux? Both the 12z Euro and 18z GFS have huge amounts 8+ inches over TN over the next 360 hours..GFS 14 in a dumping the next 2 days..a decent break but then very active and soil moisture is currently already high (70-80 percentile) Looks like earlier this year into FEB but this is Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 who knows if it will be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Firehose has geared up for the evening. The only question is where will it ultimately aim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 .55 has fallen here so far. I can't imagine we manage a 3rd straight year of much much AN precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 I'm at 1.4" since midnight and the firehose really just started in the past half hour. Not promising to see a bunch of flash flood warnings in its wake: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Now at 1.28 after moderate/heavy rain for the past few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 About 2 inches so far now. EPS mean starting to show 7 inches in some spots over the next 15 days: Individual city charts: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 2.38 inches and pouring down out there right now with some heavy upstream returns coming. Some flooding issues cropping up in the area and creeks are very high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 18 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: Wow Right now the Euro shows a warm front lifting northward next weekend.As the WF lifts you should anyways see even a chance of the thunderstorms possibly severe into next weekend As the LLJ starts to strenghten more or less this drives up the Thetea-E along with SB Capes with DP'S getting into the lower 60's,impressive for Jan.With convection some of those totals might be much higher..IMO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 There is an alarming amount of rain on all of the globals over the next 8 days or so. Double digit totals seem possible for many. I suspect that we could make a run for the wettest month on record if the overall pattern doesn’t change soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 258 PM EST Sun Feb 02 2020 Day 3 Valid 12Z Tue Feb 04 2020 - 12Z Wed Feb 05 2020 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... 21z update... No significant changes to the previously issued Marginal Risk. Any changes were based primarily on model trends in the placement of the axis of maximum rainfall. Model soundings showed that the best instability remains south of KY/TN, with the best MUCAPE values relegated to the Lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast (which is not unusual for a cool season system). However, model soundings did show some elevated instability across these areas, with MUCAPE values generally less than 100 J/KG. There is some spread on how models distribute the elevated instability, which has some effect on where the heaviest rainfall axis ultimately resides. Moisture is plentiful, with precipitable water values between two and three standard deviations above the mean transported into the upper TN Valley and lower OH Valley, where three hour flash flood guidance values are as low as 1.50 inches. While there is some model spread regarding the highest rainfall amounts, each of them placed the axis west of the lowest flash flood guidance. Based on this, the Marginal Risk was left in place. If there is better agreement concerning the placement of the heaviest rainfall (especially if it impacts areas with lower flash flood guidance values), a Slight Risk could be needed in later forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now