Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 3 minutes ago, Blue Ridge said: 1) There appears to be westerly forcing pushing some of the training cells in middle TN more eastward. This is visible on KHTX. Watch the push around the 50nmi band. Pure conjecture without the aid of a sounding: flow aloft may be more from the west than south, pushing the higher-topped convection east while flow in the lower levels pushes more north. Just a thought. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=HTX-N0Q-0-6 Yep, that's what I'm worried about for Knoxville. It looks like it's on the razor's edge for now. I could see the line getting just far enough north to spare Knoxville, I could also see it getting stuck until later today over the central valley. The firehose is really aimed at us, now with a little embedded convection: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Janet is correct...area flood warning was issued when a flash flood warning should have been first. Areal is for steady rises...which was not the case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 The radar does not look good for Knoxville. The convective cluster in southern middle TN needs to take on a more northerly motion right now. Looks to me like there may be an MCV forming causing the more easterly motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Just now, TellicoWx said: Janet is correct...area flood warning was issued when a flash flood warning should have been first. Areal is for steady rises...which was not the case. MRX is notoriously stingy with Flash Flood Warnings for some reason. I've only been under a handful here my whole life. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 MRX is notoriously stingy with Flash Flood Warnings for some reason. I've only been under a handful here my whole life. I have noticed that as well. They tend to use areal way more.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 23, 2019 Author Share Posted February 23, 2019 airport up to 3.30..( .35 last hr)...they may be just to far south to avoid the incoming train? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 It has been raining so hard here that whenever I get under a 25 dbz band it catches my attention because it sounds like the rain has stopped. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 WBIR weather (N. Knoxville near Broadway and First Creek) just reported around 5 inches since midnight. Showing images of a tree down on a pickup already without any wind yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 That is a really scary radar for Knox Co. Line thru middle TN is on a ENE trajectory...not much of a north movement. Looks like the train will hit hardest I40 and N Knox Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 13 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Yep, that's what I'm worried about for Knoxville. It looks like it's on the razor's edge for now. I could see the line getting just far enough north to spare Knoxville, I could also see it getting stuck until later today over the central valley. The firehose is really aimed at us, now with a little embedded convection: It's going to be a photo finish. Storm tracks on KOHX are also showing slightly more ENE than NE. Watch the training cells move just south of McMinnville. From a hobbyist standpoint, this is fascinating to watch. Meanwhile, the stream in my front yard is slowly beginning to grow into a pond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, Blue Ridge said: From a hobbyist standpoint, this is fascinating to watch. It really is. I feel like I can normally look at a radar and tell how things are going, but this one is so close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Local Subway store destroyed here due to a mudslide.https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10156335178257104&id=40397252103Sent from my XT1710-02 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 23, 2019 Author Share Posted February 23, 2019 meanwhile ( at least no training there) AMESTOWN, Ky. (WKYT) – A press release from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers says that, with Lake Cumberland levels rising, the Wolf Creek Dam will step up releases to historic levels, with the potential for flooding in low-lying areas downstream. According to the release, Wolf Creek Dam is currently discharging water at 36,200 cubic feet per second (cfs.) Now, engineers plan to increase discharge to 40,000 cfs as early as Sunday, and up to 45,000 cfs 48 hours after that. The largest amount of water ever released from the dam is 40,000 cfs, back in January of 1974. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1025 AM CST SAT FEB 23 2019 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley this afternoon and evening... * LOCATIONS... Northern and central Mississippi Western and middle Tennessee Northwest Alabama Southeast Arkansas Northeast Louisiana * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered damaging winds Isolated large hail * SUMMARY... A few strong tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated large hail are expected, primarily through this evening across the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. The most dangerous period for tornadoes should be around 2 to 8 PM CST across northern Mississippi, southwest Tennessee, and far northwest Alabama. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Flash Flood Warning for Roane and Loudon Co now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 The train is arriving, and I’ll let the storm tracks tell the story. Stay safe, Knoxville friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Just incredible line aimed like an arrow at Knoxville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 If anything, this may have just a bit of wiggle room to move slightly north and still train directly over Knoxville proper. TYS is going to be oh so close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 23, 2019 Author Share Posted February 23, 2019 Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said: Just incredible line aimed like an arrow at Knoxville. alot of times these things start to weaken about this time of day of the LLJ weakens and the focus become surface based activity...but in this case the over all system is strengthening so it may cancel that out If some places in Knox county already have 5 inches...I think a shot at 10 inches isn't out of the question by days end if that train sets up over them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Yeah, looking at radar, it's starting to look like basically worst case scenario with the train for the hardest hit areas in Knoxville. At least there's an end in sight after the train gets through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 The train's engine is overhead of me now. Could hear it roll in 100% louder than most rainfall so far this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VOLtage Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 They just issued a PDS Flash Flood Warning for Knox county. The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Knox County in east Tennessee... * Until 130 PM EST. * At 1036 AM EST, emergency management reported heavy rain across the warned area. Up to 3 inches of rain have already fallen over the last 3 to 4 hours with an additional 1 to 2 inches possible over the next 2 hours. Flash flooding is already occurring. This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Knoxville. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! * Some locations that will experience flooding include... Knoxville, Oak Ridge, Alcoa, Farragut, Louisville, Plainview, Halls, Blaine, Karns, Kimberlin Heights, House Mountain State Park, Lake Forest, Maloneyville, Mascot, Bearden, Powell and Seymour. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Move to higher ground now. This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Edit: Disregard my last post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Exit 49 on I75 in McMinn Co is closed. Hwy 305 is becoming impassable in places. AFD Pics: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 First Creek at Broadway near Kroger as of 1:00PM: First creek in a valley bottom near 6th ave: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Now that the end is in sight for the heaviest precip, how long does it usually take for local streams to crest and start to recede? No clue how something like that typically works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 23, 2019 Author Share Posted February 23, 2019 reissued BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 124 PM EST SAT FEB 23 2019 ..FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR KNOXVILLE AND KNOX COUNTY TENNESSEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS EXTENDED THE * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... KNOX COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... * UNTIL 430 PM EST. * AT 122 PM EST, EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED CONTINUED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THREE TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN AND AN ADDITIONAL ONE INCH IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS. FLASH FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STRONGLY SUGGESTS MOTORIST LIMIT TRAVEL AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. MANY ROADWAYS ARE IMPASSABLE AT THIS TIME, AND WILL REQUIRE SEVERAL HOURS FOR WATERS TO RECEDE AFTER THE RAINFALL ENDS. THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR KNOX COUNTY. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Posting here as well as in the svr thread....I am not seeing any svr wx polygons showing up on ANY NWS radar in the affected region....I first called Memphis to let them know but only got a recording saying they were open during business hours M-F. This needs to be corrected for an upcoming possibly very dangerous day in the affected area. Flood warnings show up but not svr. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 23, 2019 Author Share Posted February 23, 2019 got to watch for any development of clusters (more heavy rain) ahead of the main line this afternoon with heavy rain...HRRR hinting at it NWS data is slow to update but 3.30 inches at Knoxville airport as of couple of hours ago edit: 3.59 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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