yoda Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Snow starting at DCA around 11z/12z WED per 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 When the precip arrives, its pretty weak sauce for our area, and goes over to mixing pretty quick, between the 84 and 90 frames in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodbridge02 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 The GFS looks worse to me. Already over to ice at 90 compared to heavy snow at 96 at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 The GFS looks worse to me. Already over to ice at 90 compared to heavy snow at 96 at 18zHigh skirts offshore faster. Run with a mixed bag of positives and negatives. 00z CMC looks good, FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 FV3 starts before 6z and heavy by 12z...very NAM-like. Flips to ZR by 18z though...probably 0.6-0.8 qpf before the flip. This according to pivotal maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, Woodbridge02 said: The GFS looks worse to me. Already over to ice at 90 compared to heavy snow at 96 at 18z It went pretty bad later in the frames, precip was dried out as a result of the sheared out wave, SE ridge pumping a bit more later on. Definitely not nam-esque whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: It went pretty bad later in the frames, precip was dried out as a result of the sheared out wave, SE ridge pumping a bit more later on. Definitely not nam-esque whatsoever. GFS seems to be a bit on it's own in terms of the weaker wave solution, doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 FV3 has snow breaking out by 6z Wednesday in DC. Thump to ice to dry slot. I’m a fan. The weenie in me says this will be the new OP so might as well toss the old GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 FV3 starts before 6z and heavy by 12z...very NAM-like. Flips to ZR by 18z though...probably 0.6-0.8 qpf before the flip. This according to pivotal maps.Woah, how did nobody share that Pivotal has good FV3 maps out quickly? Game changer. FV3 is very fast. Has snow developing over the area between 72-78hrs. Solid thump to a lot of ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, losetoa6 said: Cmc is quicker as well So that’s NAM, new GFS, and CMC with quicker solutions. 00z is good overall so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 minute ago, nj2va said: So that’s NAM, new GFS, and CMC with quicker solutions. 00z is good overall so far. Looking at the hourly maps at http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html, 0Z CMC starts between 10-11Z whereas the old run started 13-14Z, so yes, a bit quicker. It does seem like the trend is for the ridge to pump more if anything, so getting precip in quicker is the key to accumulations. With the high scooting off to the east, I don't think the low levels will hold on for long in the urban corridor during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, GEOS5ftw said: Looking at the hourly maps at http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html, 0Z CMC starts between 10-11Z whereas the old run started 13-14Z, so yes, a bit quicker. It does seem like the trend is for the ridge to pump more if anything, so getting precip in quicker is the key to accumulations. With the high scooting off to the east, I don't think the low levels will hold on for long in the urban corridor during the day. Exactly, I think faster onset will the key for 95 areas to get a few inches of snow. I tend to think these WAA setups have precip breaking out quicker than modeled so we have that going for us presumably. My bar is seeing more than 30-60 minutes of frozen which would be more than I got out last week’s storm which turned into mid 30s rain for 99% of it for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 My bar is getting OPM delay and/or telework for Weds. If we get that I’ll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 hour ago, yoda said: Where do we find those maps? TT? Pivotal. Man. The GFS is a nasty ice storm out this way. But it is dynamic as well. This seems to be getting heavier with each run. Tomorrow's runs should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 The GFS has a known bias to scour cold air out too fast with CAD situations. Now the Strong waa could certainly do that, but tend to favor the solutions that hold the cold air in longer with decent front end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 25 minutes ago, nj2va said: FV3 has snow breaking out by 6z Wednesday in DC. Thump to ice to dry slot. I’m a fan. The weenie in me says this will be the new OP so might as well toss the old GFS. FV3 will officially take over the GFS in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: FV3 will officially take over the GFS in March. Are they still going to run the old GFS at that point?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Are they still going to run the old GFS at that point?. Let me check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Are they still going to run the old GFS at that point?. the FV3/Parallel GFS will become the operational GFS in March... GFS version 15.0 (aka FV3-GFS) was slated to go operational on January 24. Then the shutdown happened. The new proposed implementation date is March 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Here is what the 00z UKIE looks like at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: the FV3/Parallel GFS will become the operational GFS in March... GFS version 15.0 (aka FV3-GFS) was slated to go operational on January 24. Then the shutdown happened. The new proposed implementation date is March 20. Thank you. The thing i was wondering is if what’s the operational GFS now will still be run at all after March 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 minute ago, ravensrule said: Thank you. The thing i was wondering is if what’s the operational GFS now will still be run at all after March 20th. for a day or two, until it's confirmed that the implementation "worked", but it won't be available to the public Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, high risk said: for a day or two, until it's confirmed that the implementation "worked", but it won't be available to the public Thank you very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Good question though I've enjoyed having two gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Thank you very much. If it wasnt for trump...we would have the best snow model in the world. I'm ignoring the OP gfs from now on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, losetoa6 said: Part 2 on Friday looks to have some potential . On which model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Gfs with still a monster se ridge at 336 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Used to use the paid sites but just going off of h5 and 850 maps on Euro through 72, it would have to be decent. 850 temps are colder than last night's 0z which was already a good run, ridge a bit lower heights in the E. The SE ridge is more prevalent at hour 96 vs last nights 0z, but 850 temps pretty similar through our area overall. I'll wait for someone to post the actual maps/outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Strange run. Colder at the surface even though the main slug of moisture has shifted north. This has the potential to be pretty sick in the elevated exurbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Strange run. Colder at the surface even though the main slug of moisture has shifted north. This has the potential to be pretty sick in the elevated exurbs. Have any worthwhile images to share? Did appear to be colder at the sfc based on anamolies.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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