Deer Whisperer Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 minute ago, notvirga! said: Cranky's forecasts are really vague, plus obviously he is cranky. I stopped following him. His posts were tedious. i still view his stuff because i do believe he is quite knowledgeable and a realist, so i know where to put my expectations. i do think he is a little too pessimistic at times tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Appears to be a stronger CAD signature on the 18z gefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, Deer Whisperer said: i still view his stuff because i do believe he is quite knowledgeable and a realist, so i know where to put my expectations. i do think he is a little too pessimistic at times tho I agree. Very informative and real...but his constant complaining and trolling of "wxtwitter" gets annoying sometimes (I just don't get why he doesn't just block those people, lol) But if you can look past that...he does some pretty good analysis, imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 40 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I agree. Very informative and real...but his constant complaining and trolling of "wxtwitter" gets annoying sometimes (I just don't get why he doesn't just block those people, lol) But if you can look past that...he does some pretty good analysis, imo He tends to over analyze every single moving part of a storm and in the grand scheme of things, particular things he’s picking out mean nothing in the end game. It’s almost like he’s making it way more complicated than it has to be. But he does also do a very good job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Getting that time again...model mayhem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: He said he is fine just annoyed and done with posting for a while. Annoyed with the board or the weather? He cant get down on the weather this winter. EVERYONE has struggled this year. And he has been much better than most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 What a storm setting up! Nice trend on 00z NAM (click to animate) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 No (click to animate) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 NAM is faster with the advance north vs GFS. Precip shield not as expansive down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 NAM is a beatdown. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 NAM'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Starts around 8-9z wed. Pretty hot and heavy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Good sign to have mixing all the way down into southern South Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 The 700 and 500 vertical velocity maps are sick for NOVA and DC. The best dynamics are right over the DC corridor. Of course it is the NAM at range. But as modeled. We would get pounded with that thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Finally a NAMing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: NAM is a beatdown. Period. It's not going as far as it can go trend-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 NAM, a check in the right box Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 What a little storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 I can’t believe I’m saying this but it oddly feels good to have the NAM on our side...it was never on board with today’s threat even though Euro 3 days out showed 7”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 NAM at range and all the other caveats, but still have to like what it shows. Precip arrives earlier, pre-dawn, and looks like ~4" by early morning Wed. Yeah snow maps suck, I know, but it is all snow through the end of the run at 12z Wed. So if (if... if!) it is correct that's a beat down to that point and would be more coming after. Cold at surface and 850s are as well. Whatever it's worth, fun to look at and get NAM'd at least once! ETA... Clearly one of the big factors is getting precip in fast, early, and at a good rate. Take advantage of the cold while it's there for as long as it can manage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: NAM at range and all the other caveats, but still have to like what it shows. Precip arrives earlier, pre-dawn, and looks like ~4" by early morning Wed. Yeah snow maps suck, I know, but it is all snow through the end of the run at 12z Wed. So if (if... if!) it is correct that's a beat down to that point and would be more coming after. Cold at surface and 850s are as well. Whatever it's worth, fun to look at and get NAM'd at least once! ETA... Clearly one of the big factors is getting precip in fast, early, and at a good rate. Take advantage of the cold while it's there for as long as it can manage. I like where we sit, NEXT MODEL UP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 The NAM at least sets a good mood and if you want the 0z suite to be a good one compare the models as they roll out this evening to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 OK so NAMature hour is over, time for the big models hahaha! All joking aside, if we're going to have half a chance to score well with this setup, what it shows is what we'd need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 31 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The 700 and 500 vertical velocity maps are sick for NOVA and DC. The best dynamics are right over the DC corridor. Of course it is the NAM at range. But as modeled. We would get pounded with that thump. Where do we find those maps? TT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 00z ICON looks like snow to ice to dryslot... maybe light rain for an hour or two S and E of i95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Where do we find those maps? TT? Pivotal Weather, under Upper Air Dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, losetoa6 said: That's actually pretty funny Zugswang. I almost spit out a little bit of my PBR . Only the finest beer for the NAM, eh?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Any maps? TT is down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 GFS looks better to me thru h48, h5 shows confluence pushing a bit further south early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 That trend continues out to hour 60, a bit colder at 850, HP a bit stronger/more ESE. Out to 78, negligible differences overall, noise mainly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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