mappy Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 49 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: From Mount Holly AFD- The position the aforementioned high takes will have an impact on the ptype Wednesday, but it is interesting to note that the GFS/ECMWF/CMC all have this high moving out to sea rather quickly with approach and passage of next storm system. The high seems to be a bit too far south for a classic cold air damming situation, and winds shift to more of an easterly flow during the day Wednesday, as opposed to a north-northeast flow that is needed to support continuous widespread snow. Regardless, there will be enough cold air for precip to start out as snow throughout the whole forecast area. As the high moves offshore, winds shift to more of a south-southeast flow, and midlevel warm air will lift to the north as well. By Wednesday afternoon, precip will change to rain in Delmarva, and snow becomes a wintry mix for the rest of southeast PA and NJ. Could have a more prolonged period of freezing rain and sleet north and west of Philly, while a rain/sleet mix Wednesday afternoon for southern NJ, extreme southeast PA, and northern portions of Delmarva becomes plain rain by Wednesday evening. Rain/snow line then continues to lift north Wedensday night. Frontal boundary then becomes hung up south of Delmarva going into the end of the week, and several more waves of low pressure will develop on this boundary as high pressure builds in from the north and west. Remains to be seen what wins out for the late week period. That last part..hmm Lol we cant win. Now our high is too south The weather man, out to get ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Very nice trend with the CAD on the fv3! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Very nice trend with the CAD on the fv3! There's always a nice trend on the FV3...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 FV3 has a cold bias, sometimes significantly so, sadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 8 minutes ago, mappy said: The weather man, out to get ya. Lol With this "why the heck didn't this work out?!" year, ya gotta wonder (snow haters must be pushin' the buttons...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: FV3 has a cold bias, sometimes significantly so, sadly. I'll bet at least once it's gonna show a snow solution in early April...book it, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Where the hell is Robert Tyrone Chill? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: I'll bet at least once it's gonna show a snow solution in early April...book it, lol Wouldn’t surprise me if there’s one mid June Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Where the hell is Robert Tyrone Chill? Ya better call Tyrone! And tell him...his gut feelings are on the line and he must account Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ya better call Tyrone! And tell him...his gut feelings are on the line and he must account Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 For some reason, getting blank FV3 maps that were posted in here just a little while ago. Not seeing anything! What did the “Funky Virus Cubed” give us!? Eta: Opens eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 30 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Where the hell is Robert Tyrone Chill? where is roger smith with our 8-12 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 40 minutes ago, stormtracker said: FV3 has a cold bias, sometimes significantly so, sadly. i dont think its colder than the other models but it did start the precip like at 1am..and its heavy snow by 12z which is what we need Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ji said: where is roger smith with our 8-12 inches? Even he doesn't believe in this winter anymore. When you've lost him, you've lost everyone. Is BobChill ok? Actually concerned when he disappears this long with a potential storm coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ji said: where is roger smith with our 8-12 inches? He would have to call for 8-12 feet for me to expect a warning event using the typical roger snow to real snow method. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Even he doesn't believe in this winter anymore. When you've lost him, you've lost everyone. Is BobChill ok? Actually concerned when he disappears this long with a potential storm coming. He said he is fine just annoyed and done with posting for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 1 hour ago, snowfan said: Its better than 12Z. Maybe a tad slower but comes in heavy. yeah it has the most accumulating snow since yesterday's 18Z. Just glad we didnt lose it. Would be fun to get 4 inches in a couple of hours. I like watching heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 19 minutes ago, Ji said: where is roger smith with our 8-12 inches? He doesn't come in until the event is locked in and even then not until right before with 200% to 400% of forecasted totals. 14 minutes ago, Ji said: i dont think its colder than the other models but it did start the precip like at 1am..and its heavy snow by 12z which is what we need It's documented that it has a cold bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: He said he is fine just annoyed and done with posting for a while. Can't say I blame him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: He said he is fine just annoyed and done with posting for a while. Understandable. That's good to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 What’s the opinion on crankyweatherguy in here? He doesn’t seem to think it’ll snow at all in nova or Maryland, icy to mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said: What’s the opinion on crankyweatherguy in here? He doesn’t seem to think it’ll snow at all in nova or Maryland, icy to mix He seems cranky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inthepines Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 8 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said: What’s the opinion on crankyweatherguy in here? He doesn’t seem to think it’ll snow at all in nova or Maryland, icy to mix His map is for the event Tom night-Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Bob is liking being missed and everyone begging him to come back. Good ego weekend for him lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 19 minutes ago, Inthepines said: His map is for the event Tom night-Monday. i was referencing the map on the right, twas the most recent one i could find for Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 38 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said: What’s the opinion on crankyweatherguy in here? He doesn’t seem to think it’ll snow at all in nova or Maryland, icy to mix Yeah, he's cranky...but he usually aims that at the Twatter-based wx "hobbyists" who are more concerned about hyping models showing the most digital snow than anything else. I rather enjoy reading and occasionally learning from his long blog entries, at least as much as I do by haunting these forums. And honestly...while I'm typically pulling for snow/ice, I'm selfishly hoping for ONLY an "icy-to-rain mix" on Wed AM, as we'll be trying to get out of DCA on a 10 a.m. flight to see our oldest be commissioned out of Army OCS at Fort Benning, GA on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 10 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said: i was referencing the map on the right, twas the most recent one i could find for Wednesday Da fucck is an icy mix? Thats like Tony Pann bullshit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Da fucck is an icy mix? Thats like Tony Pann bullshit. who knows. im not sure where he's getting that idea based on current guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 How was 18z euro shaping up at h90? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Cranky's forecasts are really vague, plus obviously he is cranky. I stopped following him. His posts were tedious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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